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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Welcome to the party, GFS. I think there is very little doubt a winter storm with big impact is going to hit NC.
 
deltadog03 said:
And even down here you could argue for more ZR as well. We barely get above freezing
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Yeah you guys down in Macon and the rest of middle GA are clearly in the game this far out for freezing rain, even in the Feb 2014 event you were on the southwestern fringe a day or so out, the fact some guidance are already giving you ZR this far out is intriguing...
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Umm. That would be bad. Someone post something comforting about the 925 temps please. Sleet, sleet, sleet...
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925s look to be about -2 to -4 across Atl Metro at hour 120. It then warms up above freezing as heavy rates move in around hour 132 and on. I don't know how cold the 925mb layer would need to be to get IP especially since 850s are +7 to +8 across Atlanta at onset of precip.
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah you guys down in Macon and the rest of middle GA are clearly in the game this far out for freezing rain, even in the Feb 2014 event you were on the southwestern fringe a day or so out, the fact some guidance are already giving you ZR this far out is intriguing...
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ya CMC was nasty ice event here. EURO was even colder and basically very close to a big event as well. Trending toward a CMC like solution
 
metwannabe said:
I believe there are but I do not have access, if I'm not mistaken Huffman's site on americanwx has sleet accums (I used to subscribe but no more) anyway someone else may have them not sure.
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Same boat as you. But he used to have them and I'm pretty sure they are still there. You guys notice on all these op runs , you never loose the NE surface fetch. HP stays anchored in and so don't be so quick to think you'll inch up above freezing with latent heat release,surface wind shift etc. It's a little early to nail down micro climate for this storm, but pay attn. Normally we see cads start eroding on tail end of events for various reasons. But this one coming up I haven't seen a cause or reason for this as of right now.
 
deltadog03 said:
ya CMC was nasty ice event here. EURO was even colder and basically very close to a big event as well. Trending toward a CMC like solution
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The German model (DWD-ICON) also has ice down to Macon GA, not too far off from the CMC. You definitely don't want to be biased towards the liquid side of the ZR-RN transition zone on NWP models this far out...
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NCSNOW said:
Same boat as you. But he used to have them and I'm pretty sure they are still there. You guys notice on all these op runs , you never loose the NE surface fetch. HP stays anchored in and so don't be so quick to think you'll inch up above freezing with latent heat release,surface wind shift etc. It's a little early to nail down micro climate for this storm, but pay attn. Normally we see cads start eroding on tail end of events for various reasons. But this one coming up I haven't seen a cause or reason for this as of right now.
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Agreed, there appears to be a good steady supply of cold dry air which will have no problem staving off latent heat release, this isn't a borderline temp issue. If anything it will be colder, my hope and seen it many times before, the snow/ip/zr line could easily sink a little further south but either way odds are somebody is in for some serious ice storm problems
 
NCSNOW said:
Same boat as you. But he used to have them and I'm pretty sure they are still there. You guys notice on all these op runs , you never loose the NE surface fetch. HP stays anchored in and so don't be so quick to think you'll inch up above freezing with latent heat release,surface wind shift etc. It's a little early to nail down micro climate for this storm, but pay attn. Normally we see cads start eroding on tail end of events for various reasons. But this one coming up I haven't seen a cause or reason for this as of right now.
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It's funny these weather model sites remind of satellite tv packages, all of them have something you like but not one has all of what you like...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The German model (DWD-ICON) also has ice down to Macon GA, not too far off from the CMC. You definitely don't want to be biased towards the liquid side of the ZR-RN transition zone on NWP models this far out...
View attachment 2234
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Ya one thing we can usually count on around here is CAD events. (obviously if it's cold enough) they always come in colder that forecasted and usually hang around longer
 
For what it's worth, the CMC was sniffing out another weak, overrunning shortwave on the 27th, got very close to being at least a little bit of a headache for many on the board. Mixed precipitation breaks out just beyond 80 hours in NC, got real close in SC & GA.

Screen Shot 2017-12-23 at 9.13.09 PM.png
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed, there appears to be a good steady supply of cold dry air which will have no problem staving off latent heat release, this isn't a borderline temp issue. If anything it will be colder, my hope and seen it many times before, the snow/ip/zr line could easily sink a little further south but either way odds are somebody is in for some serious ice storm problems
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All great points. Notice how the feed of cold isn't interrupted at all during the event.
 
deltadog03 said:
All great points. Notice how the feed of cold isn't interrupted at all during the event.
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That's what very ominous. If TDs start out in the teens and 2m temps are low/mid 30s at the onset, holy hell ...

Hell, not the mention that marine influences are minimized with SSTs are in the 50s...not to mention damming NNE winds, relentless with no interruption.
 
Webberweather53 said:
For what it's worth, the CMC was sniffing out another weak, overrunning shortwave on the 27th, got very close to being at least a little bit of a headache for many on the board. Mixed precipitation breaks out just beyond 80 hours in NC, got real close in SC & GA.

View attachment 2235
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I noticed this as well and the NAM actually had a little precip, not any issues, at the end of it's run.... certainly something to watch over next day or two.
 
campamy said:
What in the holy hell? How would my area end up being part of this? Cad into SE TN?
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Great question and maybe someone familiar with that area could provide more info, not sure I've seen that before either.... it definitely doesn't look like a typical CAD ice map
 
metwannabe said:
I noticed this as well and the NAM actually had a little precip, not any issues, at the end of it's run.... certainly something to watch over next day or two.
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Yeahhh if this modest overrunning event is any more impressive than forecast could have some issues esp in NC, SC, & GA. Not sure if many remember but the February 2014 event was preceded by a separate, more modest overrunning event on the 11th which produced more than 10" of snow in New Bern, NC, about 3-4" fell in Fayetteville, which is remarkable considering most forecasts called for an inch at most even in New Bern. Oops
 
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