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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Shawn said:
You're looking too far in advance. Their maps start to remove accumulation the further you get out from them storm. Here is what it looks like for this event: (these maps try to use an algorithm to remove ice/sleet) but it isn't fool proof.. so its still an icy mess per this:
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I saw that the signal is still there, but compare that to 12z at the same time:
snod.conus.png

The totals and qpf were approximately cut in half.
 
packfan98 said:
I saw that the signal is still there, but compare that to 12z at the same time:
snod.conus.png

The totals and qpf were approximately cut in half.
Click to expand...

Hm, we shall see. Maybe drier.

Edit: Maybe less "big fake snow dogs" as we are getting closer.
 
Tonight's Euro should be vain! See if it comes toward the GFS any, then some flags should be raised!
 
Shawn said:
Hm, we shall see. Maybe drier.

Edit: Maybe less "big fake snow dogs" as we are getting closer.
Click to expand...

EPS still pretty good for the 28th-29th event...but a quick glance at 15 day Charts for KCHS and KCAE are eye opening for round 2.

I wouldn't be overly concerned with the GFS super suppression look.
 
Looking at the bad ptype charts from the GEFS members; more seem dry. Temps aren't an issue. Will post the GEFS member "snowfall" maps when they release.
 
Shawn said:
Looking at the bad ptype charts from the GEFS members; more seem dry. Temps aren't an issue. Will post the GEFS member "snowfall" maps when they release.
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Slight variations on a bad operational model can cause a worthless Ensemble Suite. Right @Webberweather53? I’m not surprised that more members are suppressed. “It’s right where we want it,” I think...
 
Decrease from 12z as Shawn said now there are members that are dry like the gfs op
b3e8af4ae4344e76a34656b67ee2e9de.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Just curious how everyone on the board feels about areas further west, Memphis is still talking about this in their AFD.
 
Trend is drier...surely we are getting closer to the more realistic outcome as we are getting closer to the event.
 
DadOfJax said:
Trend is drier...surely we are getting closer to the more realistic outcome as we are getting closer to the event.
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No, we won't be any closer to a real outcome until 12 hours out! The GEFS most likely sucks as bad as its op
 
Oconeexman said:
Im with you Robert..anything frozen is a win!
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Yeh seriously. I mean, I get it. Ice, Hurricanes, severe weather, all of that can cause life changing damage. I own my own home and have two little girls so I know the safety issues it can give. But I think when any weather enthusiast says “this is going to be bad” or “i hope these models don’t confirm” when they are referring to severe weather whether that winter wx or storms or whatever. I think what we basically mean is, we are super excited and can’t wait for it to happen. I don’t mean it as wanting a tornado to destroy your neighborhood. But in all honestly, when I see these crazy ice totals, I think, man that could be bad.. but at the same time I’m thinking, bring it on. That will be awesome.
 
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