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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Shawn said:
Per 12z Euro (not being talked about yet) these wind gusts would be problematic for areas that receive ice:

ecmwf_uv10g_se_25.png
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Thanks for posting the wind map. Anytime there is an ice threat for the area north and northeast of Atlanta, I worry about winds.

Our trees have taken a beating the past four months, from Irma and the heavy wet snowfall. That amount of ice on those trees with any type of steady breeze concerns me greatly.

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You can see the difference at 5H out west with energy 18Z GFS vs NAM
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One can see the wedge, really anchored down and the Wintry weather starting to break out per 18z Canadian (at the end of it's run):

I_nw_EST_2017122312_126.png
 
HSV looking at this time frame now: kept with chance POPs Friday/Friday night
where another wintry event is possible. With this being at the tail
end of the forecast package and with persistent model disagreement
will keep accumulations out but need to keep an eye on this event.
 
No worries everyone GFS still out to lunch... storm on GFS will show back up about 36 hours from onset of storm
 
12z Canadian Ensembles are still on board of a significant Winter storm in the Southeast: (some are much further along, and go through the 31st with timing differences):
 

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Big step back on the 18z GEFS by looking at the snow depth mean on pivotal. Someone else can fill us in on what’s going on when the individual panels come out.

Edit: my guess is more suppressed solutions like the op. The huge totals for the MA went poof! As Webber said previously, the ensembles will often mirror the op, because there are not enough perturbations programmed into the ensembles. I think.
 
At this point it’s good too see the GFs not showing a thing. Model is so bad you don’t want it showing anything until 2 dads out
 
packfan98 said:
Big step back on the 18z GEFS by looking at the snow depth mean on pivotal. Someone else can fill us in on what’s going on when the individual panels come out.
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You're looking too far in advance. Their maps start to remove accumulation the further you get out from them storm. Here is what it looks like for this event: (these maps try to use an algorithm to remove ice/sleet) but it isn't fool proof.. so its still an icy mess per this:
 

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Webberweather53 said:
Damn lol you'd probably even have some light snow in the midlands at the onset if that verified
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That's quite probable with the wedging/AG signature that strong, the SFC FZ line gets that close to the coast. OP EURO pulls KCHS down to 34 at 06z 12-29, before warming back up to 40 during the afternoon. We all know under steady precip and channeled NNE winds don't allow that even down in my world❄
 
packfan98 said:
Big step back on the 18z GEFS by looking at the snow depth mean on pivotal. Someone else can fill us in on what’s going on when the individual panels come out.
Click to expand...
Hope this is appropriate ... but here goes ...
1) It's 18Z
2) The Pac is so screwy models are just spitting out junk (GIGO)
3) Trends are the key (and IMHO, looking back over 5 days, trends are not supporting anything colossal - only seasonal)
 
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