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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Keep in mind for the Feb 2014 storm the midlands of SC were in the most intense portion of the ZR zone the day of the storm and we know how that panned out. To see some models there already certainly does give some hope for front end thump of snow in the Carolinas and portions of GA
 
Webberweather53 said:
Keep in mind for the Feb 2014 storm the midlands of SC were in the most intense portion of the ZR zone the day of the storm and we know how that panned out. To see some models there already certainly does give some hope for front end thump of snow in the Carolinas and portions of GA
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How did it pan out...I remember Atlanta had ice and then it turned into sleet and then snow on top.
 
Here were the Canadian ensemble members from the 00z last night. 12z will be out in a bit:
 

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JMA has a stronger wedge, very significant signature from 12z. 1049MB.
 
MSnowAtl said:
How did it pan out...I remember Atlanta had ice and then it turned into sleet and then snow on top.
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"The forecast was for freezing rain comparable to the January 2000 ice storms, which caused 500,000 to lose power and resulted in $35 million in damage,[5] while areas of further-north Georgia received unusually heavy snows. Precipitation started as light rain late on the 10th, with significant snow by the following morning while still above freezing, turning back to light rain before ending by mid-day. More light rain began after midnight, changing to snow as temperatures fell, then to sleet, freezing rain, back to sleet again before another significant snow by the morning of the 13th.

Areas north of the city generally got mostly snow and sleet, while a large swath from the south metro area eastward got the heaviest ice accumulations, though a dry slot at mid-day proved to be much more of a factor in limiting accumulations than had previously been forecast. The worst damages occurred in east Georgia, where over 80% of Augustawas left in the dark, and the Augusta National Golf Club was left littered with branches and other damaged landscaping just a few weeks before the Masters Tournament, in addition to a leaking water tower. The historic Eisenhower Tree, located on the 17th hole of the golf course, suffered irreversible damage and had to be removed.[14] The storm damaged $65 million worth of timber.[15]Further concerning residents was a magnitude 4.1 earthquake two days later, followed by an 3.2 aftershock two days later, at which time most power had been restored, after the storm."
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Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-February_2014_North_American_winter_storm
 
KCAE's update:

000
FXUS62 KCAE 231933
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
233 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

The weather forecast becomes a bit more interesting with the
possibility of wintry weather late week...although quite
uncertain since beyond day 5. A reinforcing shot of cold air
arrives in the form of a backdoor cold front late Wednesday into
Thursday, resulting from a 1040-10455mb surface high developing
over southeast Canada in response to some confluent 500mb flow
east of the Great Lakes region. Amplifying 500mb flow develops
with a sharp digging trough into the four corners region
resulting in backing 500mb flow over the southeastern states
atop the northeasterly low level flow. This appears to result in
a CAD wedge by late in the day Thursday with dew points falling
into the 20s. Weak impulses moving through the mid level flow
will bring increased chances of precipitation especially
Thursday night into Friday. Coastal low pressure development
may occur near the end of the forecast period as northern stream
and southern stream energy phase across the Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys. The latest GFS model has backed off somewhat
on the threat with the moisture remaining mainly south and east.
The ECMWF threat appears more ominous. Based on the latest model
trends...freezing rain may be an elevated threat given partial
thickness profiles...the presence of a warm nose...and the
potential for freezing temperatures Thursday night over central
SC.

There remains much uncertainty regarding thermal
profiles/moisture profiles resulting in low confidence.
However, the details of the forecast that far out are too
uncertain to put much weight into any particular operational
deterministic model run. Below normal temperatures are expected
through the end of the forecast period but improving conditions
by the weekend.
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LovingGulfLows said:
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-February_2014_North_American_winter_storm
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Yes, that storm was crazy for East GA. Here in Marietta we were saved with a sleet fest. Never seen sleet accumulate like that before but it saved us from the lost trees and power. To think that storm was only a couple weeks after Snowmaggedon. 2014 was a great winter. If we get another major storm on top of the 10-12 inches of snow 2 weeks ago, this winter may be historic for the area.
 
T
Flurry said:
GA, but I really don't see this being a big deal for Bama


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The wedge will be stronger then forecast...I have seen it where east al is the action due to the CAD
 
Welp, I guess after my power is out, I can go to my grandma's house for New Years and watch the Rose Bowl! (She's in an area where it comes back faster)
 
Catfish said:
Yes, that storm was crazy for East GA. Here in Marietta we were saved with a sleet fest. Never seen sleet accumulate like that before but it saved us from the lost trees and power. To think that storm was only a couple weeks after Snowmaggedon. 2014 was a great winter. If we get another major storm on top of the 10-12 inches of snow 2 weeks ago, this winter may be historic for the area.
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The 10-12 inches of snow you got is already historic I’d say. I live more north then almost all on this board and it took me 10 years of living in Tennessee to see a storm dump 12 inches imby. Hopefully it’s not another Ten though.
 
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