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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

1300m said:
This is why I've stated multiple times I refuse to give up on this storm until the 12z Wednesday model runs.
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You would think models would be able to have a storm down by 3 to 5 days in advance, not the day before! That's poor model performance if u ask me
 
Stormsfury said:
Oh boy...and this is a potential sneak attack waiting to happen. How many times in the past have SE winter storms seemingly come out of nowhere.
I tell you this..if the ICON verifies the best with this setup, we know straight where to go to in the future ...

In all seriousness, the setup just seems it would be capable of delivering a little more than what's showing IMO.
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Winter storms don't come that late out of nowhere! We at least know 3 days before usually.
 
I hope to see a few token sleet flakes or possibly a light glazing on the pine trees, but it's almost looking like that I may be too far west for this storm system. While this winter has at least been colder than the past two (so far), the level of frustration continues to remain astronomically elevated.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Winter storms don't come that late out of nowhere! We at least know 3 days before usually.
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See earlier this month for one prime example of that.

The Christmas 1989 Snowstorm was picked up until it basically happened. From time to time, particularly in the SE, sneak ups do happen.

Another example, the day after the Jan 2000 Carolina Crusher which also was not well forecast had a trailing subtle s/w. When this reached the Lowcountry of SC, it suddenly blossomed and put a 50 mile by 30 mile area of 2-3" of snow down in just about a 3 to 4 hour window. CHARLESTON nightmare for Rush Hour morning traffic.

Anyway, the s/w in question isn't or won't be in the RAOB network until Wednesday, and this setup is fairly volatile. Subtle changes can lead to drastically different outputs. The setup does have potential still.
 
1300m said:
Majority of members with a very stout shortwave similar to the ICON. If the Euro makes a move towards this tonight, I'm giving this idea much more credibility.
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Which source do you use for the h5 vort?
 
Uhm.

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