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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
Yeah Shawn, no doubt about it the GEFS dried up a lot this run. This 0z suite has been a dumpster fire thus far minus the DWD ICON
View attachment 2320
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Okay, so I looked over the ICON again, for the 00z at h5, and noticed that the wave gets sheard apart basically, but then just magically absorbs/phases/whatever with energy in the Southern stream area and turns stronger before the NS swooshes it out or so. What is causing that one frame breakup and reassembly? Is it the southern energy?

It held the same look in the end with the separation after that frame like the 18z.
 
Shawn said:
Okay, so I looked over the ICON again, for the 00z at h5, and noticed that the wave gets sheard apart basically, but then just magically absorbs/phases/whatever with energy in the Southern stream area and turns stronger before the NS swooshes it out or so. What is causing that one frame breakup and reassembly? Is it the southern energy?

It held the same look in the end with the separation after that frame like the 18z.
Click to expand...

All the excess precipitation that's going off northwest of the low off the Carolina coast is creating cyclonic vorticity and potential vorticity below the level of maximum heating that amplifies the shortwave around day 3 as it passes/approaches the TN valley/Apps. This precipitation feeds back onto the synoptic-scale pattern and thus the storm grows non-linearly
 
Euro looks a little better for Wednesday and system by probably too warm for most tho
 
Interesting, is this a stronger wave coming off the 00z Euro! Time will tell!!!!
 
Guys, I don't have the best maps; but the wave i think looks better on the 00z Euro so far...
 
Shortwave definitely stronger coming out of the Rockies by 48 hours, even if the actual results still suck we took a step in the right direction this run towards getting a storm.
output_4BHTcf.gif
 
Yeah; this Euro idea with a stronger/better looking wave shows we aren't going to figure this out for at least a few more cycles.
 
2 or 3 more cycles with energy consolidating and looking better like this, and it's a whole different ball game. I'll take it at this point, and call this baby step a win.
 
We had a stronger s/w to begin with but this was offset by the longwave trough digging further south of New England at day 3 creating more confluence that sheared the wave....
 
Webberweather53 said:
We had a stronger s/w to begin with but this was offset by the longwave trough digging further south of New England at day 3 creating more confluence that sheared the wave....
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Yes, you've been mentioning this. Was that stronger than the 12z cycle?
 
Maybe the 2 highest res global models are on to something. Icon then euro
 
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