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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

looks like maybe some light snow breaking out heading toward RDU first little system wed am
 
Hard to discern our s/w for the 28-29th against the field of vorticity streamers in the lee of the Rockies, but it's there over Wyoming & Colorado by 45 hours. A testament to how weak the disturbance is, we almost completely lose it as it passes over the Rockies... It's still enough to get the job done if everything else in the bgd synoptic pattern cooperates

namconus_z500_vort_us_40.png
 
Nice little streamer of vorticity from the upper low that camped out over the Baja Peninsula in the subtropical jet is getting drawn over the SE US
namconus_z500_vort_us_44.png
 
I will say there is more moisture at hour 60. That could help us Webb, with a little more umph.
 
uhhh, we know about how the NAM gets ridiculed but it actually hasn't been that bad this winter but then again...who knows with this winter because of how bad every single one of them has been.
 
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