Stormlover
Member
huh?
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Stormlover
Member
where do you get that for other locations?Here is a comparison between everything from the Canadian, to the Icon, to the Australian model for Atlanta precip amount wise:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Serbian MOS guidance (MOS statistically adjusts for various model biases and produces output based on these bias corrections) looks pretty reasonable in Fayetteville, w/ about 0.20" QPF from both the 27th & 28-29th storm, which is what the 12z EPS had here. The DWD-ICON is a big outlier for now
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That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).Here is a comparison between everything from the Canadian, to the Icon, to the Australian model for Atlanta precip amount wise:
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That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).
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Okay wow. Then that means the ICON is putting almost 0.8 down in ATL for the second deal/Wintry one.
Can you imagine the chaos if that was right w/ other modeling showing such low totals? Cause' we know the NWS isn't giving the ICON any credit; lol.
Im guessing that would be mostly all rain in GA since temps are forecast to be above freezing according to the NWS.That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).
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pcbjr
Member
If all of that blue translated to snow, I'd figure Santa made a 2nd run ...That's a cool chart. Here is a map of total precip that's accumulated prior to the 28th system with ICON (into Thursday night 3am).
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Folks - It's Christmas night - enjoy family and friends; weather will be here for you tomorrow.
Best!
Phil
DadOfJax
Member
The 20/59 corridor in AL is looking a little more interesting each day....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The exceptionally high resolution Swiss model (1km res) had some token snow flurries/sleet pellets in Fayetteville.
I would have taken its 18z run yesterday to the bank and cash in for the winter.
I would have taken its 18z run yesterday to the bank and cash in for the winter.
Lol was just about to post this. I'm interested in seeing if it does what the 18Z GFS did and shift the precip farther South on it's next run. The 12Z GFS had wintry precip in same general area as this FV3 12Z run. FV3 just has higher precip totals in areas.On a side note; I'd like to say that this system is a good one to test some of these lesser known models on!
12z FV3 vs 12z GFS:
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Here is the 27th wave precip for those to have to see how much comes with 28/29th system Shawn posted of FV3.
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bud006
Member
Hi everybody, and Merry Christmas!
Couple of posts really got me thinking today. One about some of the "other" models, such as the German model and the FV3 model. Always looking to learn so going to spend some time digging into those. German model has been really aggressive with my area (50 miles N of Atlanta, western shore of Lake Lanier). There is so much frustration with the GFS (warranted) and the Euro seems to lose storms at times, so it would be great to have some other reliable options out there.
Second point is the timing of this potential storm and what it could mean if it verifies. Think about this (and mods, I want to be respectful about adding to the discussion; please move to banter if you feel appropriate to do so): the Atlanta metro area has more than 6 million people. It is the week of Christmas. Many people, including myself, are blessed to be off work for the entire week. There are tons of people traveling, and the I-85, I-75 and I-20 corridors are major travel routes through the Southeast.
It doesn't take much ZR to disrupt travel and daily activities. Add in the cold in advance of the potential event and the cold afterward, and it would not take a lot of moisture to really make things a mess for millions of people and major interstates and the world's busiest airport during a very busy travel week, a week in which I'd say fewer people than usual are paying any attention to potential weather issues.
Again, hope this doesn't clog up the thread or discussion. Just a couple of points I thought might be relevant to the discussion. The model madness within 72 hours of the event starting is disturbing, but that's where we're at this evening. Once we get the energy onshore, maybe we can hone in on a more specific solution. At the end of the day, the margin of error always is razor-thin in this part of the world.
--30--
Couple of posts really got me thinking today. One about some of the "other" models, such as the German model and the FV3 model. Always looking to learn so going to spend some time digging into those. German model has been really aggressive with my area (50 miles N of Atlanta, western shore of Lake Lanier). There is so much frustration with the GFS (warranted) and the Euro seems to lose storms at times, so it would be great to have some other reliable options out there.
Second point is the timing of this potential storm and what it could mean if it verifies. Think about this (and mods, I want to be respectful about adding to the discussion; please move to banter if you feel appropriate to do so): the Atlanta metro area has more than 6 million people. It is the week of Christmas. Many people, including myself, are blessed to be off work for the entire week. There are tons of people traveling, and the I-85, I-75 and I-20 corridors are major travel routes through the Southeast.
It doesn't take much ZR to disrupt travel and daily activities. Add in the cold in advance of the potential event and the cold afterward, and it would not take a lot of moisture to really make things a mess for millions of people and major interstates and the world's busiest airport during a very busy travel week, a week in which I'd say fewer people than usual are paying any attention to potential weather issues.
Again, hope this doesn't clog up the thread or discussion. Just a couple of points I thought might be relevant to the discussion. The model madness within 72 hours of the event starting is disturbing, but that's where we're at this evening. Once we get the energy onshore, maybe we can hone in on a more specific solution. At the end of the day, the margin of error always is razor-thin in this part of the world.
--30--
GeorgiaGirl
Member
JMO, but this really isn't 2014 like imo with the danger that posed if any precip fell at all, yes it's been cold today but before the last day and a half to two as with 2014, it was sustained cold for much longer before the event happened...early Jan had the major cold snap for example. It won't be an everything falls sticks everywhere situation in the Deep South states I don't think...
There is a power danger though, as always with ice. Just think about it, if this is a bust low on QPF, man oh man.
For GA: The 12Z GEFS mean is suggesting significant icestorm from near or just south of a line from Tony to GaGirl (N of this line may be mainly IP though lighter qpf) and then S of this to S/SW of MCN and then E to somewhat SW and S of SAV. For the areas in as well as S and SW of SAV, the QPF is about the heaviest, near 0.35", which would be at or near the most ZR for a storm since 1922.
tonysc
Member
Yes it was a total surprise.
As you know, as well as many, even if we only get a .25" of ZR it will be light enough that it can accumulate quickly.
I should say if we get that much qpf lol
NoSnowATL
Member
Latest RPM looking juicy for everyone. I don’t know how reliable this model is.