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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

Pretty big change on the Euro that's for sure
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One thing about this threat is that all models have a similar look and we aren’t relying on the GFS on an island by itself. That’s encouraging at least.

Have also seen Webb, Fro and others always mention the best chance of a storm is at the end of the pattern when it takes a turn to the other side.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NBM isn't bad, but I think we could use some really large-scale height super ensemble height anomaly and circulation maps that go out to day 15 & cover the last few days of NWP runs as sort of an integrated super ensemble. That would take all the paid sites we use now to the next level and I think give everyone a much better understanding of what's actually happening in general + trends, etc.
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I think a lot of our issues with guidance comes partly from lack of data in many areas around the globe.. like trying to make a perfect spaghetti but if something is missing, ruins the final product
 
Stevo24 said:
If this were to really become something to watch, when would you say we should start seeing a legit storm on the models. Maybe end of week?
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If it’s legit….

Next 24-36 hours will be trends towards a great 500mb setup and glimpses of hope at the surface. By Wednesday we better hope we see something nice at the surface.
 
Arcc said:
Trust those images only if you want to be disappointed. I don’t even know why they exist.
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You're right. I'm quickly learning how useless ensembles are for storms. Means are skewed by large members mostly. Seeing what percentage of members show accumulating snow and ignoring the amounts seems to be best. But even then caution is advised. Just this past week 30+ out of 51 members had snow for GSP, CLT and RDU. Even Atlanta had decent amounts. We see how that worked out.
 
metwannabe said:
Hopefully guys with better access will chime in soon but seems to be a tick increase in precip on the EPS, guess there might be a few members biting?

View attachment 127666
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Don't let the gif fool you, it's a 24 hr qpf and I'm looking at the increase along the coastal inland sections
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You're right. I'm quickly learning how useless ensembles are for storms. Means are skewed by large members mostly. Seeing what percentage of members show accumulating snow and ignoring the amounts seems to be best.
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It’s not the ensemble part that is garbage, it’s that type of chart. It is the worse form of looking at the 6hr QPF/850mb temp chart and then assuming it’s snow.
 
All right, who can discern max wind gust behind front and Wind Chill (Apps-East)? Cant trust Euro and most models as the tend to be high most of the time on these guest. Which is most reliable SD?
Guessing high peaks get some crazy negative 20-30 windchill forecast.
 
NCSNOW said:
All right, who can discern max wind gust behind front and Wind Chill (Apps-East)? Cant trust Euro and most models as the tend to be high most of the time on these guest. Which is most reliable SD?
Guessing high peaks get some crazy negative 20-30 windchill forecast.
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Models will probably be better here than a tropical system honestly. The isobars are stacked on the back of the front so we likely rip right as it passes then slowly taper from there
 
Winter storm watches went out this morning, out to Waterloo. Seems like it’s a little early for a storm that doesn’t even start till Wednesday afternoon at the earliest.
 
The cold is definitely gonna be legit but will the snow be? Model trends have been drier since last night but the NWS HWO an hour ago was still bullish Screenshot_20221219-140919.png


A band of snow is expected to spread across the area behind
the front Thursday into Thursday evening. Uncertainties remain
with snow location and intensity, however a window of near
blizzard like conditions may develop across northeast Oklahoma
where visibilities are greatly reduced by blowing snow.
Overall snowfall amounts remain forecast in the one to four
inch range with highest amounts near the Oklahoma Kansas border.
Stay tuned to the latest forecasts and expect travel impacts
across the region on Thursday.
 
12z MMFS
SD said:
Models will probably be better here than a tropical system honestly. The isobars are stacked on the back of the front so we likely rip right as it passes then slowly taper from there
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euro is usually high because it has a bias to underestimate friction, which is a big problem when it comes to strong gradient winds & forest. I’d say chop 10-20mph off of the max prog from the euro
 
Been quietly working away at this ice storm climatology for NC (linked below) and some of the preliminary results I've found from the storms I've analyzed (not shown) are really interesting and honestly not what I initially expected. Should have another little event to look at/archive after later this week.
Webberweather's NC Ice Storm Climatology (1992-Present)

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All the models wind clown maps have 40-60 mph gust just about everywhere lol....peaking around 9am-12 noon here in central and eastern NC, obviously earlier for the out west folks....typically I say take these with a grain of salt but in this case given all the parameters we might actually see some gust into the low 50's

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J.C. said:
Icon coming in colder, Friday late morning:
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It is really rare to see a temp drop over ne ga and the upstate like those being modeled. Besides the mountains slowing it down,, Normally downslope warming also keeps temps warmer. If temps such as the icon verify, teens in the afternoon in ne ga, sc..it will be exceptionally rare. The euro and Canadian show low 20s in the afternoon which is still very impressive. Truly looks like one of the most impressive cold frontal passages in decades..especially for the upper Savannah River Valley.
 
bigstick10 said:
so 3 above at ATL at 3pm? Wow.
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Yeah, don't expect that to verify, but I find it interesting that its sticking to its guns. However, both the Euro and the GFS show upper teens Friday afternoon, so its not totally crazy.
 
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