• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

One thing i like is that the main wave is coming out of the SW and we are entirely dependent on a N/S wave digging at the right spot. Now we do need some type of phase it appears with energy dropping down into the S/W coming out of the SW, but that seems very doable right now. As you saw with this first storm, this will almost certainly trend to the NW at some point. I would like to start seeing moisture showing up in the gulf in the next day or so and then we can start pushing things to the NW under day 4
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Ugh I don’t wanna get sucked into something that’s only got pixie dust around it.. give me a full cycle today of good 500 vort looks and anyone other than the gfs showing something at the surface along with some more ensemble support .. and then I’ll raise an eyebrow
Click to expand...
Give this man a morning donut. I want to see more surface action today from "the other" models not called the GFS
 
Shawn said:
Of note to go with my last post above, the 00z CMC also has the idea of dropping a substantial piece down also:

View attachment 127558

With that said; I'd be looking for anything from the big models later today in the 26-28th time-frame.
Click to expand...
what's really turned me off from this potential is how flimsy the upper air cold got; we're getting supported by a skinny finger of sub-540 thicknesses? blah. thicknesses aren't the whole story but it means there's not much room for this thing to trend warmer. such a departure from the earlier iterations of this when the 540 line was just inland of the gulf coast
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Remember last week when this arctic airmass was supposed to rotate in and get reinforced under that block? ?
Click to expand...
I guess we don't need to fall for it again. After all these years, we still don't seem to remember that long range historic blocks and cold patterns turn into seasonal temps and showers by verification, regardless of whether or not all models and ensembles agree.

For whatever the reason, they seem programmed to way overdo cold air penetration out in time.
 
Lol I can see the it being quick part and for areas east of the mountains this not being as bad, but this is not seasonable at all lol. It does not feel like below 0 often in any part of the SE. It’s unfortunate the pacific jet is going to overextend, but it was brought up several and several times as a possibility. Not every good pattern produces snow, some do some don’t, last January did, this probably won’t. some of the analog years the CPC had didn’t produce snow. It is what it is. Our averages are low for a reason 77BD9AAB-683D-4791-9029-7E3183E4D4ED.pngB780A6E6-D821-41F7-8319-4D1E0E478CDD.pngB69C9CB8-DA7D-43A0-BF96-EFE334A49BB9.pngFE4FEF65-332C-40C4-9AC7-BD413C1CFB8E.pngF50A919A-8CD7-421C-96E2-57B21263B7BF.png
 
westmc9th said:
Yep. Don't get me wrong. It's going to get cold but I don't think this is going to turn out to be the arctic outbreak of 2018 that many thought it would be.
Click to expand...
Maybe not for y’all east of the Apps, but the GFS has BHM at 15F with a DP between 0 to -2 Saturday morning. My lowest temp in 2018 was 13F which I will certainly beat if those temps for BHM verify. I’m probably looking at 8 to 11F if the wind dies down which will be the coldest since 2014.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol I can see the it being quick part and for areas east of the mountains this not being as bad, but this is not seasonable at all lol. It does not feel like below 0 often in any part of the SE. It’s unfortunate the pacific jet is going to overextend, but it was brought up several and several times as a possibility. Not every good pattern produces snow, some do some don’t, last January did, this probably won’t. some of the analog years the CPC had didn’t produce snow. It is what it is. Our averages are low for a reason View attachment 127570View attachment 127571View attachment 127572View attachment 127573View attachment 127574
Click to expand...
Obviously, I was exaggerating to make a point. It's certainly not going to be the magnitude of cold and blocking that was depicted or the duration, but it's still impressive. I still think we have a legit shot at a winter storm before the cold moves out.

And yes you mentioned the overextended of the jet being possible. In fact, you've covered about every possibility for the pattern over the next several weeks. Great job.
 
Rain Cold said:
Obviously, I was exaggerating to make a point. It's certainly not going to be the magnitude of cold and blocking that was depicted or the duration, but it's still impressive. I still think we have a legit shot at a winter storm before the cold moves out.

And yes you mentioned the overextended of the jet being possible. In fact, you've covered about every possibility for the pattern over the next several weeks. Great job.
Click to expand...
Get ready for my warm map spam because it’s coming. Logan Elliot style
 
?????????
icon_z500_vort_us_61.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top