It is definitely a better look. I think it was close.
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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
3 run trend .. suddenly extremely workable .. with this look 
GFS has another west based -NAO this run. This model changes so much
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Wait, the GFS may try.
SnowwxAtl
Member
Put this in the whamby thread if need be, but would this be a board wide storm or just a Carolina storm. It is point towards overrunning to me!
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GFS went from London, Ontario to Benton Harbor, MI in one run at 18z friday.
If the western ridge doesn’t go to ---- this is interesting 
DadOfJax
Member
It’s about to be on!
Ron Burgundy
Member
Yep. That is the one. The ridge has to hold.
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Nerman
Member
What was your point? Cold chasing moisture rarely ever works out for our area if you want snow. Then everything often gets suppressed to the Caribbean once the cold arrives. 'Hard to get snow in the South, yada yada, must thread the needle'
These are the sort of run to run changes I can get down with.
This looks very similar to what the CMC spit out yesterday.
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GFS looks a lot like the storm last mid jan 
SnowwxAtl
Member
??
???? on the Euro to shed some better light on this....I can't with the GFS. I will not play these games with her ??.
GFS tried but it failed.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
If the ridge can sharpen and get this negative it will be a good one
CMC is not bad either. We’re trying to get back some life 
CMC … 
Cary_Snow95
Member
Gfs loses the northern stream a bit so it’ll be marginal but good trends
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Gotta love how the cmc and gfs agree for one model run. If you check the vort on the gfs you can see the same energy jolt 1000 miles west over 3 runs and strengthen. Now this was where others and I referred to days ago about not knowing how it'll play out until we get a better idea of the 23rd systems track. That one influences everything beyond it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We've still got ~7-8 days left to go w/ this, which is an eternity for a winter storm. It's definitely good to see though that this overall threat window hasn't gone away yet.
I'm more curious to see if the ensembles (esp EPS & GEFS) will perk up today or tomorrow.
I'm more curious to see if the ensembles (esp EPS & GEFS) will perk up today or tomorrow.
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GEM has about a 2" snowfall from Jackson to Birmingham and north. Looks like Oxford to memphis gets a bit more - maybe 3-4"
Cary_Snow95
Member
This would be quite the run if the northern stream came down and joined the party
With so much energy flying down the ridge, it's hard to believe the period after the first storm is completely quiet.
severestorm
Member
Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
While it’s a small possibility, we’re more worried about actually getting a wave to amplify right now. We can worry about those things later. I highly doubt it wouldReality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Cutoff and stay stuck around there for several days, although it’s not Impossible. It’s one run where a random cutoff stalled.
Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Did you see the frames 24-36 hours before this?
Gefs = faster moving vortex, more western ridge 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Reality check: it's one operational model run 9 days out.