severestorm
Member
Rain for Chicago now on the GFS LMFAO
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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Just another 200 mile shift north of the Low pressure. What a screwed up system.
Fountainguy97
Member
This is bad even for GFS standards lol
900miles.
900miles.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Looks like by verification, this low might be cutting through Minnesota.
Good lord.
Also, while I'll give it a look, this vort is so strong I know the idea around the 27th is a fantasy.
Good lord.
Also, while I'll give it a look, this vort is so strong I know the idea around the 27th is a fantasy.
Brent
Member
What a weird GFS run... I'm in the 40s Thursday morning ?
Fountainguy97
Member
Vs euro for same general time. 12z and 0z only. Absolutely nailed it (give or take) 160 out.
Brent
Member
I was just reading the Chicago AFD about a crippling blizzard... Might be more of a miserable cold rain ?
It’s a Nuke, occlusion around southern MI, 970 range. A sub 995 meso is still on the table, ILM area.
Guess it wasn’t done yet! ?
GFS still only model showing some backside flakes (east of Apps) and this almost never happens. Temps will be crashing fast but mountains will most likely delay it just long enough for moisture to exit
Wake up, it’s time to party
??
With Thu/Fri I’m hoping that scenario plays out similar to December 12, 2010. I think that was a cutter where the front swept thru early Sunday morning and temps dropped rapidly from the low 50s to the upper 20s w/ NW flow snow showers. I got lucky and got about 1/2 inch from a couple heavy snow showers. Not sure if the airport got much of anything though.
I'm actually concerned that's too big of a west jump already this far out lol
Yep, but we need something to focus on..
Here's the last part of RAH's discussion:
"There is then the potential for another shortwave or two to rotate
through the trough Sun-Tue before heights aloft begin to recover
next week, but currently moisture and all precip remain offshore.
Temps will be slow to recover with highs in the 30s and lows in the
teens and 20s through Monday."
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This isn’t too far off from being something significant. Amplify and slow the southern stream wave over TX (or phase it with something in the northern branch of the jet like the gfs does) and allow the vortex to get out of the way just a hair sooner & you got a storm
FFC mentions possibility of a High Wind Watch/Warning because of the strong wind gradient expected. It wasn’t mentioned in this morning disco, but previous ones did also mention Wind Chill Advisories were likely for Friday/Christmas Eve.
forecast.weather.gov
National Weather Service
forecast.weather.gov