severestorm
Member
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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
*sigh*
The lakes low myth just won’t die.
DadOfJax
Member
?Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
Cary_Snow95
Member
It’s one run 200 hours out. Why are you acting like this is the gospel. The only thing that should be taken from this run is a better ridge and faster moving vortex
severestorm
Member
Okay, I'll revisit this post next week then. #remindme
iGRXY
Member
Whoever told y'all you can't have a GL low to get cold and snow in the south, I just want to tell them they should sell cars because that myth constantly gets spread.Reality check:
Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps
Don't get sucked into this one.
iGRXY
Member
So now we can't get a storm that's 7 days out after it has literally trended to a much better potential in about 3 runs? Okay I guess lol
It’s 1 ------- GFS run that showed a cutoff stalling and you’re taking it face value. That’s just as bad as seeing a snowstorm and taking it face value. There’s more options on the table but the general longwave pattern has trended better overnight and today. Focus on that instead
Not only that but the Southeast LIVES on marginal temp events. LIVES!
Stormlover
Member
National Blend of Models...note that it is only 10:1, not Kuchera, so these amounts are really low compared to what the models say under Kuckera.
SnowwxAtl
Member
Most snow in the south comes from a pattern relaxing. I won't worry about temps right now. He'll GFS is struggling if it want to go pass east of the Apps. ???
rburrel2
Member
Even if we warm up out in front of this storm in the mid-levels... looks like the arctic airmass is locked in place at the surface.. could get an ice storm. (at least according to this run.)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We really need someone to come up w/ some nice (time lagged) super ensemble products for us, because it's not easy to see the forest through the trees sometimes using operational models or even ensemble suites which can vary quite considerably from run to run. Would love to see what a probability matched mean (correcting for increasing dispersion w/ range) & probability product of the last 3-4 0z & 12z runs of the GEPS, GEFS, & EPS would look like for say z500a, SLPa, precip, 850Ta, VP200a, & 48-72 hr snowfall.
I would tend to believe that if there is a storm in this time frame, the dynamics would have 850s end up colder… we’ll see… there will have to be a storm first
Isn't the best to that we have is the NBM though?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NBM isn't bad, but I think we could use some really large-scale height super ensemble height anomaly and circulation maps that go out to day 15 & cover the last few days of NWP runs as sort of an integrated super ensemble. That would take all the paid sites we use now to the next level and I think give everyone a much better understanding of what's actually happening in general + trends, etc.
Heelyes
Member
I bet kuchera shows at least .8 ?National Blend of Models...note that it is only 10:1, not Kuchera, so these amounts are really low compared to what the models say under Kuckera.
Banter in banter please, I guess it gets confusing with so many threads but seriously think about what you are going to post and make sure it's in the correct thread. I'd go back and delete post but I don't have that much time
All models basically have our energy around the PNW that’s raising interest around this weekend. UK looked more consolidated from the jump, but also has stronger confluence 
GEFS has some noise for sure.
Surface low support is not that strong, but precip is.
We are making slow progress. Very slow. Increase in the Eastern Carolinas with a little extension South of Atlanta from the same time period.
GEFS also picks up on the signal a couple days later.
Wow the 12z CMC was trying to produce hard for us. A little more digging would get it done.
CMCE looks better at H5. Trough axis backed up west, PNA ridge is stronger
Watching model runs for me is like hoping the Panthers will play better next week. Then it starts all over until the season is finished lol
Just looking at the H5 patterns, on the different models, even on the GFS, this potential just makes a lot more sense than what the GFS showed a few days ago for later this week.
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Stormlover
Member
ratios of 20 and 25:1 would be higher than that, and that's the ratios they show
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
One thing I will say. We were blessed to have gotten this little cool down the past few days ahead if this arctic front. If we were to have had the airmass in place ahead of it that we had last week. Things could have gotten ugly.
SimeonNC
Member
TWC seems to be forecasting higher winds for Friday than what's currently modeled for this area, I wonder why.
DobsonCityWx
Member
Trying to get the wind chill message across probably. 20mph is gonna feel bad with these temps.
Euro is stronger with the second shortwave as the other models did as well.
SimeonNC
Member
GFS and CMC both have snow showers over the Piedmont of NC Friday afternoon, interesting.
That energy around Calgary looking better this run 
Better ridge off the west coast and trough axis gonna be west of the GFS. May be a pretty good run coming.
Looks like the snow chance is later around the 28th instead of the 23 to 26.
That confluence is hella strong though still 
Dang good look at 168hrs. Euro flexing western ridge northward.
We need more lean with our western ridge axis imo with this, but let’s see what it does 