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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold

Reality check:

Lakes Low
Canada low diving to Gulf then up East Coast unlikely
Marginal temps

gfs_T2m_us_39.png


gfs_mslpa_us_39.png



Don't get sucked into this one.

*sigh*

The lakes low myth just won’t die.
 
Okay, I'll revisit this post next week then. #remindme
It’s 1 ------- GFS run that showed a cutoff stalling and you’re taking it face value. That’s just as bad as seeing a snowstorm and taking it face value. There’s more options on the table but the general longwave pattern has trended better overnight and today. Focus on that instead
 
We really need someone to come up w/ some nice (time lagged) super ensemble products for us, because it's not easy to see the forest through the trees sometimes using operational models or even ensemble suites which can vary quite considerably from run to run. Would love to see what a probability matched mean (correcting for increasing dispersion w/ range) & probability product of the last 3-4 0z & 12z runs of the GEPS, GEFS, & EPS would look like for say z500a, SLPa, precip, 850Ta, VP200a, & 48-72 hr snowfall.
 
We really need someone to come up w/ some nice (time lagged) super ensemble products for us, because it's not easy to see the forest through the trees sometimes using operational models or even ensemble suites which can vary quite considerably from run to run. Would love to see what a probability matched mean (correcting for increasing dispersion w/ range) & probability product of the last 3-4 0z & 12z runs of the GEPS, GEFS, & EPS would look like for say z500a, SLPa, precip, 850Ta, VP200a, & 48-72 hr snowfall.

Isn't the best to that we have is the NBM though?
 
Isn't the best to that we have is the NBM though?

The NBM isn't bad, but I think we could use some really large-scale height super ensemble height anomaly and circulation maps that go out to day 15 & cover the last few days of NWP runs as sort of an integrated super ensemble. That would take all the paid sites we use now to the next level and I think give everyone a much better understanding of what's actually happening in general + trends, etc.
 
Banter in banter please, I guess it gets confusing with so many threads but seriously think about what you are going to post and make sure it's in the correct thread. I'd go back and delete post but I don't have that much time
 
CMCE looks better at H5. Trough axis backed up west, PNA ridge is stronger
Just looking at the H5 patterns, on the different models, even on the GFS, this potential just makes a lot more sense than what the GFS showed a few days ago for later this week.
 
TWC seems to be forecasting higher winds for Friday than what's currently modeled for this area, I wonder why.
 
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