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Wintry December 23-26 2022 Winter Weather and Cold
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SnowwxAtl
Member
@Myfrotho704_ who are we? ???
Am I saying this right? Boom?
What are we booming??
The huge uptick in surface lows.
Maybe an East of I95 special
iGRXY
Member
And so it begins. These waves have trended to digging further to the SW the closer we get to verification so this isn’t surprising. Just hope we aren’t starting the process too early
SnowwxAtl
Member
Is this the overrunning event you spoke about yesterday?
bigstick10
Member
And why does FFC go with the warmer GFS??
Nice trend with the big low over Canada.
They're probably hedging their bets with the NBM and in-house temperature suite.
Ugh I don’t wanna get sucked into something that’s only got pixie dust around it.. give me a full cycle today of good 500 vort looks and anyone other than the gfs showing something at the surface along with some more ensemble support .. and then I’ll raise an eyebrow
Shaggy
Member
Yeah at this point the gfs is not to be trusted as it stayed on its island for far too long regarding the 23rd storm.
True but it had the 23rd storm off the coast and look where it ended up lol. It's still too early for my liking to see anything pop and start trending NW just yet
So looking at the 06z GFS 500mb vorticity maps, it looks to me that the piece of energy that is capable of spawning a low off the SE coast is separate from the other wave we've been watching. There is more separation and it originates from the Northern stream.
If at all possible, it would be nice for that energy to slow down and bundle with the Southern wave (more concisely) to start a low pressure system around Northern Florida before creeping up the coast.
If at all possible, it would be nice for that energy to slow down and bundle with the Southern wave (more concisely) to start a low pressure system around Northern Florida before creeping up the coast.
Of note to go with my last post above, the 00z CMC also has the idea of dropping a substantial piece down also:
With that said; I'd be looking for anything from the big models later today in the 26-28th time-frame.
With that said; I'd be looking for anything from the big models later today in the 26-28th time-frame.
man just put me out of my misery instead of subjecting me to another hint of an essence of a whiff of a potential
DadOfJax
Member
Meh….Atlantic coast SLP won’t help us here.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
MMFS was down yesterday or in “experimental mode” while I did some investigating into why it made mistakes similar to GFS (too far east) with the 23rd system, and made notes for the next upgrade.
Here’s the 00z snowfall map-
Obviously the 23rd threat has been gone for most of us for a couple of days now. The potential on 26th-27th may be enticing, but the first system needs to get out of the way so the second one can have some separation.
Here’s the 00z snowfall map-
Obviously the 23rd threat has been gone for most of us for a couple of days now. The potential on 26th-27th may be enticing, but the first system needs to get out of the way so the second one can have some separation.