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Pattern December 2023

westmc9th said:
Yep. We'll punt December (again) get a dry-cold week in Jan and then have to punt again. Tale as old as time. At least last year it was cold on Christmas....we shall see how it shakes out this time.

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I’m confused. How does everything look so good a few days ago and now looks like trash?
 
Stevo24 said:
I’m confused. How does everything look so good a few days ago and now looks like trash?
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These weather models. For years now it's been like this. Always take long range favorable patterns with a grain of salt until they get inside 7 days. But long range bad patterns and warmth seem to always be correct. ?‍♂️

You'll save yourself from having to endure a lot of stress when you take that approach
 
NoSnowATL said:
weather models. It will change everyday.
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Yep, give it a few days and we'll all be jumping at joy with the GFS showing a big snow for day 15. But seriously, the indices are not looking bad. PNA now looks to stay positive, the AO looks to average slightly negative (maybe get some cross polar flow), and the NAO looks to average positive (not good but I think it's overrated for us SE folks). --> give me a positive PNA any day...with some cold air on our side of the hemisphere
 
Stevo24 said:
I’m confused. How does everything look so good a few days ago and now looks like trash?
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Everything is progressing fine. We are getting lucky that we are mitigating what could have been a really big torchy month. That giant L in AK and the GOA is really part of the catalyst that makes the pattern later good
 
SD said:
Everything is progressing fine. We are getting lucky that we are mitigating what could have been a really big torchy month. That giant L in AK and the GOA is really part of the catalyst that makes the pattern later good
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I think we said that in ‘19, or whenever the cold sat over Alaska the whole winter and we said it has to move sometimes? I think they went a week without snow, then continued to get buried in AK. Seems to be a stubborn pattern once established! ?
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think we said that in ‘19, or whenever the cold sat over Alaska the whole winter and we said it has to move sometimes? I think they went a week without snow, then continued to get buried in AK. Seems to be a stubborn pattern once established! ?
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It can be especially if it's coupled to the strat. It should retrograde eventually which will help retract the pacific jet and start building ridging out west and in Western Canada, or at least that's how I see it going I could be wrong
 
SD said:
It can be especially if it's coupled to the strat. It should retrograde eventually which will help retract the pacific jet and start building ridging out west and in Western Canada, or at least that's how I see it going I could be wrong
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Maybe you're correct about things moving forward. Until the mjo, when that happens, makes it to the colder phases, just lots of kicking cans and chasing unicorns unfortunately. At least it's still early but from experience typically niños are backloaded
 

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FYI our only hope (euro weeklies and gefs ext) have been losing our cold/pattern flip for the end of the month into early jan, thanks to the massive jet ext.
fail
 
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