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Pattern December 2023

Looking through the prism of my Back yard location and into the crystal ball long range using the 6z GFS Op and 0z CFS. The highlights are we never get 2m temps other than about normal. Swings +2 to -2 range. The exception on GFS Op, its warmest is Christmas eve-Dec 27th. CFS starts getting us to where we want to go 12/26ish onward throughout its run.

The GFS OP shows it raining for like 36-40 hours straight here next weekend (sun-mon). We got roughly 3 inches from this weekend, so the drought has officially been put out to pasture here.
 
Went to bed at 1130 and looked out before I did. It was down to 34 but still rain. Cold delivered on time though. The Mountains to my immediate south did get some now that I can see them.
 
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When the big GOAK trough shuffles back to the Aleutians and we raise heights in AK, that’s when I’m sure winter storm prospects will appear. Just gotta wait, gotta have patience, we’re following a typical strong Nino progression, there not known for being good early on 343D1310-DD69-43B4-9832-9ADF66CEB684.pngE2FF0AE9-50E9-4341-BDA3-E7025B1EAB2F.png00B28163-803F-45AA-8EAB-ED7034B03B15.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
When the big GOAK trough shuffles back to the Aleutians and we raise heights in AK, that’s when I’m sure winter storm prospects will appear. Just gotta wait, gotta have patience, we’re following a typical strong Nino progression, there not known for being good early on View attachment 138512View attachment 138513View attachment 138511
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Even though it was a La Niña, It’s very similar to December 2021 when things were so warm especially the last 10 days of the month… I don’t think Charlotte fell below 60 for four or five days leading into New Year’s. However, you could see the signs fairly evident that a good pattern was coming.
 
Little tweaking and we can sneak some fun in between next Sun-Tues. Euro is a little to far off coast and both need some HP help, better timing. The canadian is the quickest with the storm ( starts up Sunday ) and looks like it has some misfit ULL energy trying to get involved. Long shot but it's something to watch. Ill give it a 5% chance for NC right now.

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NCSNOW said:
Little tweaking and we can sneak some fun in between next Sun-Tues. Euro is a little to far off coast and both need some HP help, better timing. The canadian is the quickest with the storm ( starts up Sunday ) and looks like it has some misfit ULL energy trying to get involved. Long shot but it's something to watch. Ill give it a 5% chance for NC right now.

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I’ve actually been looking at this one for a couple days now and it’s slightly peaked my interest. If anything came out of this, it would be from about the most marginal set up possible.
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve actually been looking at this one for a couple days now and it’s slightly peaked my interest. If anything came out of this, it would be from about the most marginal set up possible.
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This one could be a decent rain maker for me. I've been hoping it trends back to the NW for this reason.
 
weatherfide said:
This one could be a decent rain maker for me. I've been hoping it trends back to the NW for this reason.
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Yeah I think that it would be a good rain maker and would put another series dent in the drought after the rainfall this past weekend. It does look to be quite a dynamic system that could produce its own pocket of cold air to see a small area get some wet snow… especially in the mountains or foothills. The 18z GFS is actually about the perfect track for the corridor from ATL to RDU, but there just isn’t any cold air source close by.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah I think that it would be a good rain maker and would put another series dent in the drought after the rainfall this past weekend. It does look to be quite a dynamic system that could produce its own pocket of cold air to see a small area get some wet snow… especially in the mountains or foothills. The 18z GFS is actually about the perfect track for the corridor from ATL to RDU, but there just isn’t any cold air source close by.
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Not only is 18z gfs perfect track, it has a 1035mb damming hp sitting over PA to boot. And still turns into a nada burger. Cant draw it any better surface map for frozen. Oh well, good ole super el nino pac flood air.

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NCSNOW said:
Not only is 18z gfs perfect track, it has a 1035mb damming hp sitting over PA to boot. And still turns into a nada burger. Cant draw it any better surface map for frozen. Oh well, good ole super el nino pac flood air.

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Agreed. If you were going to draw up a perfect surface map for a solid NE GA, SC Upstate, and NC Piedmont snowstorm, that would be it. Honestly it wouldn’t need to be an arctic airmass either to make it work. It just goes to show how much Pacific origin air is coming in this week.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah I think that it would be a good rain maker and would put another series dent in the drought after the rainfall this past weekend. It does look to be quite a dynamic system that could produce its own pocket of cold air to see a small area get some wet snow… especially in the mountains or foothills. The 18z GFS is actually about the perfect track for the corridor from ATL to RDU, but there just isn’t any cold air source close by.
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Yep. The low track is textbook. There is no cold air to be found. At the end of December the warmth stretches to the northernmost parts of Canada. By the looks of the MJO forecast the Euro’s fantasy of dreamy January is toast.


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ATLwxfan said:
Yep. The low track is textbook. There is no cold air to be found. At the end of December the warmth stretches to the northernmost parts of Canada. By the looks of the MJO forecast the Euro’s fantasy of dreamy January is toast.


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At least we'll get some rain. Hopefully, it'll be a dynamic rainstorm.

We'll eventually get a 2 week period of favorable MJO forcing that will give us a 10 day window to cash in. Probably late Jan or Feb.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Yep. The low track is textbook. There is no cold air to be found. At the end of December the warmth stretches to the northernmost parts of Canada. By the looks of the MJO forecast the Euro’s fantasy of dreamy January is toast.


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The MJO is actually not in the worse position once we get through the next 10 days. It’s low amped now and is headed towards COD and looks like it wants to loop around on the left side of the circle which isn’t worst thing. If we were looking at a high amp phase 5 and 6 that would legitimately give you a reason to punt through the first 3 weeks of January. Other indicies certainly look to be lining up to begin to shuffle the pattern just after Christmas, but like I said earlier, like January 2016 and 2022, it might take a couple weeks to bear some fruit so that some cold air can get built back up in the north.
 
NCSNOW said:
Not only is 18z gfs perfect track, it has a 1035mb damming hp sitting over PA to boot. And still turns into a nada burger. Cant draw it any better surface map for frozen. Oh well, good ole super el nino pac flood air.

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The mod/strong/super ninos give us the best chance at seeing good gulf lows like this. I like gulf lows and big -NAOs, but neither guarantee anything of course. Always a balancing act. Need a strong enough Pac jet / STJ jet to get the waves in the southern stream, but if it's too strong, you don't have enough cold air. La Nina gives you a better chance at Arctic blasts, but you still have to time those up with fruitful storm waves...and more SE ridging with La Nina. There's a reason why the wintry climo is so low down here. I tend to think of a normal winter as one accumulating snow (light to heavy) and one mixed event (snow and ice....or ice). Hopefully we can at least have a normal winter this year.
 
IMG_1569.pngAlso noticed the snow map showing up again for the mountains, This could be a powerful storm.
 
Models catch onto storms well in advance during el ninos. Euro had this past weekend pegged from 9 days out. All 3 onto this one. Its a slow mover ull hangs out in Tx panhandle mid week. Then gets in gulf weekend and deepens. I-10 gonna flood
 
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