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Pattern December 2023

I may have to reactivate the tropical thread

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Wild how that’s a perfect track for the mountains but absolutely no cold air for them either
 
The GFS has been inland for a couple days now, while Can and Euro have been consistently off the coast. GFS was late to the game with this past weekends event and advertised a far western track before correcting back east. Interesting to see which suite nails this one down and that may be a trend to keep in mind if we ever do get to track a legit threat this season.

Canadian is the closest to helping the mtn folk out

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NCSNOW said:
The GFS has been inland for a couple days now, while Can and Euro have been consistently off the coast. GFS was late to the game with this past weekends event and advertised a far western track before correcting back east. Interesting to see which suite nails this one down and that may be a trend to keep in mind if we ever do get to track a legit threat this season.

Canadian is the closest to helping the mtn folk out

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If I had to make a guess the path will be somewhere in the middle between the GFS and EURO. GSP noted that there has been fairly clear trend towards the GFS suite though the GEFS mean keeps the track just off shore. I’m definitely going to watch it. The wife and I are going up to Biltmore on Saturday and coming back Sunday afternoon. If the 850s trend the right way up there, it might be worth staying and extra day.
 
I give it a couple of weeks before the -NAO makes a return. Really no sign of a strong vortex coming back anytime soon. I’d watch the evolution of those pacific waves undercutting the SE can ridge/ block around/past Christmas, and the Atlantic trough it may start to feed into. weak vortex just increases the odds2E32D359-A153-4B56-9038-BF722E9BD9C4.png7B26D9FE-32F2-4F1D-9EB4-42F76D579A0D.png
 
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Hopefully if the GFS has the right track, it backs off on the winds. If that verified much of SC would be dark next Sunday into next week. I know models usually overdo the winds, but it might just be right with a near 990MB low that close by. The Euro has even stronger winds but they stay mostly offshore.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I give it a couple of weeks before the -NAO makes a return. Really no sign of a strong vortex coming back anytime soon. I’d watch the evolution of those pacific waves undercutting the block around/past Christmas, and the Atlantic trough it may start to feed into. weak vortex just increases the oddsView attachment 138536View attachment 138537
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Good ole cut off low season.
 
GFS makes a monster out of the low in the gulf. Check out the winds 850mb! If those mix down, that's tropical storm force. I get 40's for the event and winds out of the east northeast at 15 to 20 mph, gusts to 35? Nasty outdoor weekend for sure! Might get 2" of rain from it so that is more than welcome.Screenshot 2023-12-12 110833.png
 
I have returned.

Unfortunately, no good news to bring. Other than the torch we’re going to be dealing with will mostly be overnight lows being much above average. To be honest day time highs don’t looks too warm. I bet we’ll see some 60 days but there’s just as good of a shot of Christmas staying in the 50s with nighttime lows in the mid 30s .. that’s cold enough to be holy and holy.

Also, it’s December in the south folks. There should be no expectations other than getting cold rain storms. And boy we got a big one potentially in the making late next weekend. We are in need of as much rain as possible. I love it!

I expect a pattern to get more consistently cold mid to late January into February. I highly doubt we go 2 winters in a row with no measurable snow ;)

NickyB over and out.
 
19.8 at the house this morning with about the heaviest frost I've seen. Even the trees were rimed. I drove through freezing fog up to the jobsite in Blairsville and took a few pictures.
 

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EmersonGA said:
19.8 at the house this morning with about the heaviest frost I've seen. Even the trees were rimed. I drove through freezing fog up to the jobsite in Blairsville and took a few pictures.
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Wow! that looks like something you'd see on mitchell or grandfather.
 
MB22 said:
It's just very sad.
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What is it with warm Decembers lately... I had forgotten 2021 was 5 degrees warmer than the previous record here ? Christmas was also warm in 2015 2016 and 2019 here

Of course in 21-22 it snowed 10 inches after February 1st too.... So...
 
Brent said:
What is it with warm Decembers lately... I had forgotten 2021 was 5 degrees warmer than the previous record here ? Christmas was also warm in 2015 2016 and 2019 here

Of course in 21-22 it snowed 10 inches after February 1st too.... So...
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The departures by end of the month are going to be outrageous, especially nw of here??
 
ATLwxfan said:
Lol that’s the longest forecast I’ve ever seen from a TV station. That precipitous drop at the end seems silly.


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Lol they do it a lot and are supposedly the most watched station here shrugs

I mean I'll believe it when I see it but there is some sign of at least maybe not a complete torch by Christmas

And suddenly the 0z GFS is cold ?
 
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