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Pattern December 2023
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
JHS
Member
It looks like the 18z models slowed this down by another hour or so. If we get more unstable than forecast this one may be trouble. Right now it looks like maybe 200 surface based cape at most here. The GFS has basically a solid line, while the euro suggests it could be discreet cells for some of us. We may also have a wedge boundary to contend with somewhere in the Carolinas Sunday which might make things worse for a few of us.
Do y’all think 441 will be open by tomorrow afternoon? God I hate taking 40 to Gatlinburg
Right now the NCDOT website is showing it’s scheduled to open back up at noon tomorrow.
Windergawx
Member
I love 40 to Gatlinburg! White knuckle craziness!
Currently 35, heading for 2 days in the mid 50s. About 15-25 degrees above normal
JHS
Member
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday: As deep upper troughing slides into
the eastern CONUS, rapid height falls will be accompanied by
impressive channeled DPVA and enhanced upper-level divergence in
the right entrance region of an upper jet. This potent synoptic
forcing will intersect an advancing surface front which, based
on all the deterministic guidance at this point, will cross the
forecast area through the afternoon and evening, an opportune
time for a severe weather threat. The GFS remains the fastest
among the GFS/ECMWF/GDPS trio, but all three depict a plume of
75-300 J/kg sbCAPE developing east of I-26 during the early
afternoon Sunday. With a 500mb speed max crossing the area
at this time, the environment will be ripe with speed shear.
Sample forecast soundings depict some 55-70kts of deep layer
shear and excellent 0- 1km shear of 30kts or more. As noted
by the previous forecaster, hodographs are straight, but being
that they`re oriented out of the WSW and solely by virtue of
the shear magnitude, the environment should surely be able to
support embedded mesovortices (and in fact, the kind of "ripples"
in mid-level moisture associated with rear inflow development as
a precursor to mesovortex development are hinted at in both the
18z and 00z GFS). As a further sanity check...a quick cluster
analysis of global ensembles was done...revealing that of three
forecast modes - one supportive of early/mid afternoon convection
like what`s depicted in most of the deterministic guidance, one
supportive of later afternoon convection, and one supportive of
no convection at all - only 10% of all ensemble members now favor
a forecast solution with no severe threat
GSP's take on severe for Sunday.
As of 255 AM EST Thursday: As deep upper troughing slides into
the eastern CONUS, rapid height falls will be accompanied by
impressive channeled DPVA and enhanced upper-level divergence in
the right entrance region of an upper jet. This potent synoptic
forcing will intersect an advancing surface front which, based
on all the deterministic guidance at this point, will cross the
forecast area through the afternoon and evening, an opportune
time for a severe weather threat. The GFS remains the fastest
among the GFS/ECMWF/GDPS trio, but all three depict a plume of
75-300 J/kg sbCAPE developing east of I-26 during the early
afternoon Sunday. With a 500mb speed max crossing the area
at this time, the environment will be ripe with speed shear.
Sample forecast soundings depict some 55-70kts of deep layer
shear and excellent 0- 1km shear of 30kts or more. As noted
by the previous forecaster, hodographs are straight, but being
that they`re oriented out of the WSW and solely by virtue of
the shear magnitude, the environment should surely be able to
support embedded mesovortices (and in fact, the kind of "ripples"
in mid-level moisture associated with rear inflow development as
a precursor to mesovortex development are hinted at in both the
18z and 00z GFS). As a further sanity check...a quick cluster
analysis of global ensembles was done...revealing that of three
forecast modes - one supportive of early/mid afternoon convection
like what`s depicted in most of the deterministic guidance, one
supportive of later afternoon convection, and one supportive of
no convection at all - only 10% of all ensemble members now favor
a forecast solution with no severe threat
GSP's take on severe for Sunday.
HugeSnowStick
Member
Coldest so far at my house, 23.3
NoSnowATL
Member
Oh Sh*t
It's a low probability but it feels like the euro(looking at 6z control run) is slowly inching the changeover line to the NC/VA border counties. As it stands, it's almost to the Mecklenburg County(VA) line. It could be a sneaky way to get some first flakes across that area.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Short range models clearly have some things to work out timing/vorticity wise
Nino
441 was still closed this morning so we took 40 all the way. Hugging the concrete barriers the whole way. Chilly up here but not near as cold as it was last year. Somebody send some money cause dad is busted already.
So, are we punting December yet, or do we need to wait until next week before we make that official?
NoSnowATL
Member
Punt until Jan then we punt again.
Well since our only hope fell on a 2 week MJO forecast that now doesn't even look favorable I'd say it's over. After last winter if we get to mid Jan with no hope in sight this place will rage
This seems less than ideal
It's tough when you are losing a month with such a snow climo.
