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Pattern December 2023

As Tracking season begins for the always elusive southern snowflake, not much to report on this morning. Seasonal temps and lots of rain showers every few days appear to be on the menu as we start off. We aint and dont appear to be heading for a torching, so theres the silver lining.
 
NCSNOW said:
As Tracking season begins for the always elusive southern snowflake, not much to report on this morning. Seasonal temps and lots of rain showers every few days appear to be on the menu as we start off. We aint and dont appear to be heading for a torching, so theres the silver lining.
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Still see December above average temps
 
Not to be that guy but he’s not lying ^. First week of December looks pretty AN, due to the initial dump out west, first week averaged out for the Carolina’s is 6-10F AN, which is in a ballpark of a torch. I suspect week 2 looks much cooler as the pacific trough drops energy further west and encourages a shallow in nature western ridge 8F04AA4D-F39A-4FB4-A1F5-47548B55785E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not to be that guy but he’s not lying ^. First week of December looks pretty AN, due to the initial dump out west, first week averaged out for the Carolina’s is 6-10F AN, which is in a ballpark of a torch. I suspect week 2 looks much cooler as the pacific trough drops energy further west and encourages a shallow in nature western ridge View attachment 138193
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You're doing it again.;)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not to be that guy but he’s not lying ^. First week of December looks pretty AN, due to the initial dump out west, first week averaged out for the Carolina’s is 6-10F AN, which is in a ballpark of a torch. I suspect week 2 looks much cooler as the pacific trough drops energy further west and encourages a shallow in nature western ridge View attachment 138193
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That's interesting to be that warm with a -nao retrograting from east based to west based?
 
Itryatgolf said:
That's interesting to be that warm with a -nao retrograting from east based to west based?
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Yes but we’re headed to a +EPO and a short-lived -PNA and usually you do see a torch with that. -NAO doesn’t do good if the continent is filled with pacific mild air. But like fro said it’s likely lasts for a week. Also that block looks to last a good while.
 
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Theme off the 12Z GFS and Canadian Op is we warm up some and Rain Fri-Mon, Then go back below normal out through 240 on the Can Op and 360 on the GFS. But boy is the rainy/ cloudy wx coming. Hope everyone is ready for the Big Wet inbound this winter. See what the euro 12Z cooks up. Its 0z posted above is by far the most qpf compared to the other 2 ops.
 
STJ
gfs_apcpn_seus_64.png
 
tractor girl said:
Bring it, we need it
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I knew you would like this setup! Gulf low after gulf low for the next 14 days. Throw some sub zero 850's in from the north and someone in the southeast is going to score big time! If this continues in to January, we are all going to get in on the action, I think.
 
Thinking our first legit move into a wintry pattern with some potential will be in late December to early January (Dec 20 - Jan 10). During this time, tropical forcing should progress thru the Eastern Pacific > Americas > Africa > W Indian Ocean (MJO 8-1-2), and global AAM should rise into positive numbers mid-late Dec. Those should combine with the background El Nino state to produce -EPO / +PNA episodes along with an undercutting subtropical jet at times. In addition, over the last several days, the Ext Euro has been forecasting the Strat PV to go into, and remain, in a weakened state into early Jan. Along with the MJO progression and background El Nino & -QBO, this would also help with high latitude blocking potential.

Here is an MJO forecast which considers both the standard MJO signal, but in addition, the current 120-day signal (i.e. the background base tropical forcing pattern). See "Total" in the "Summary of all modes" section at this link: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/RMM/. It has the MJO entering Phase 8 on Dec 15 > Phase 1 on Dec 23 > Phase 2 on Jan 9.

xsSRxmf.png



And here are the forecasted below normal zonal winds at 10mb in the Strat PV on the Ext Euro

A5tuQdO.png
 
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weatherfide said:
I knew you would like this setup! Gulf low after gulf low for the next 14 days. Throw some sub zero 850's in from the north and someone in the southeast is going to score big time! If this continues in to January, we are all going to get in on the action, I think.
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I was just thinking it looks like a set up for the rare, for Ga., Dec surprise. Moisture going by underneath, and lobes of cold air dropping in. Timing is rare, so Dec ip/sn are rare, but rare does happen from time to time to confound us all, lol. Edit: My point forecast for Tues night is only 2 degrees off the coldest I saw last year. I hope that bodes well for the rest of the winter, and not like those early Dec pellets that become the only frozen I'd see for the year. 30 pellets after Tday, and that's it for the winter. That sucks.
 
J.C. said:
You go from a lot to almost nothing pretty quickly. It will be interesting to see what verifies.
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Looks more and more like most of us north of I-20 will remain mostly dry. A repeat without the rinsing.
 
37 degrees this morning! Feels like old times! GEFS still looks good for a ton of rain over the next week and a half, especially I-20 and south. Need to watch this for a suppression trend. The last four runs have been fairly consistent but 0Z went much farther south with the heaviest axis of rain.
 
weatherfide said:
37 degrees this morning! Feels like old times! GEFS still looks good for a ton of rain over the next week and a half, especially I-20 and south. Need to watch this for a suppression trend. The last four runs have been fairly consistent but 0Z went much farther south with the heaviest axis of rain.
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If it behaves like the last few El Niños, we will see the globals want to trend to suppress things south in the mid range and then trend back north the closer in. Warm SSTs in the Gulf and a juiced up STJ should amp these systems up.
 
The 12z GFS is backing WAY OFF on rainfall this weekend in NC and SC up into VA. Most of us at .10 or less now. Look for the fires to make a big comeback early next week up in the mountains.
 
JHS said:
The 12z GFS is backing WAY OFF on rainfall this weekend in NC and SC up into VA. Most of us at .10 or less now. Look for the fires to make a big comeback early next week up in the mountains.
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I wouldn't fret yet, especially since the euro looks good still
 
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