Wintry December 10-11th winter potential

[WxBlue]

Don’t forget the tropical tidbits snow maps are honestly absolute TRASH. It’s the only part of the site I can’t stand. So that is very misleading. I really wish he would change them. I’ve seen those tropical tidbits snow maps in so many weather hyping posts across social media.


Pivotal Weather has Kuchera snow maps which are much much better. And much more realistic. We aren’t going to see widespread 5+ inches.
3km is even more conservative than this. That’s a Red flag and likely means this may even be overdone.

Levi Cowan himself (owner of Tropical Tidbits) stated that his snowfall maps aren't that accurate due to funky algorithm that NCEP use... so he stressed that his Total Positive Snow Depth Change snow maps are much more accurate. Having forecast over a dozen snowfall events in the Northeast, I can verify that Total Positive Snow Depth Change is the way to go for snow maps from TT.

 

[accu35]

Here you go Brent

 

[crecre9]

The latest GEFS plumes for Huntsville have increased the snow amounts with a mean of just under 1". All members seem to show some accumulation, and though most are less than an inch, there several higher than an inch up to over two inches. NWS Huntsville does mention the possibilty of an advisory issuance.

 

[Rick]

The latest GEFS plumes for Huntsville have increased the snow amounts with a mean of just under 1". All members seem to show some accumulation, and though most are less than an inch, there several higher than an inch up to over two inches. NWS Huntsville does mention the possibilty of an advisory issuance.

Cool still hoping waiting on other models to come out though with new information thanks

 

[JLL1973]

Models are showing a decent amount of snow but the warm ground temps are going to significantly limit accumulations

 

[SD]

12z nam doesn't look good so far

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

 

[Rick]

12z nam doesn't look good so far

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Drying up and less snow or none much ?

 

[TheBatman]

Well I am hugging nam for my backyard. ???Looks decent for North Mississippi and most of North Alabama..

 

[Fountainguy97]

Latest 3km kuchera!

NAM family has really dried up QPF the last couple of runs. Almost in half. More ice too now for Eastern TN as the warm nose trends stronger as usual.

Overall a very minor event. but any flakes are a win for sure.

 

[packfan98]

It's over doubt I get a few flakes lol always dries up

This is banter and should be posted in the Whamby thread instead. This thread is for meaningful discussions and not complaining about what happens in your backyard. Thanks!

 

[crecre9]

Regular NAM. Holding steady showing some snow in the area of N MS and AL and E TN.

Lates GEFS Plumes for HSV holding steady with a mean of .91

 

[jackendrickwx]

Wow GFS

 

[crecre9]

Looks like most modeling holding serve for my area. Thermal profiles obviously iffy and the growth zone may be too dry. As of 1500 forecast discussion update, NWS Huntsville says accumulation snow likely though.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Huntsville saying some areas could get 1.5" or more if a deformation area sets up.

 

[Rick]

Huntsville saying some areas could get 1.5" or more if a deformation area sets up.

What's a deformation zone ? That would be great to happen

 

[Brent]

We'll see how this goes

 

[stormcentral]

What's a deformation zone ? That would be great to happen

A banding feature heavy snow...

 

[Rick]

Brad travis waff says No accumulation

 

[crecre9]

Brad travis waff says No accumulation

Well he's betting against the NWS, not a position I'd want to be in.

 

[crecre9]

Latest GEFS plumes for KHSV show an increased mean of 1.32" with a max over 2.5". All members show snow with the lowest at 0.25". NWS Huntsville has issued a Special Weather Statement and will consider a WWA issuance overnight.