SimeonNC
Member
Not Brick but someone had to start the thread lol
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
By creating this thread, you have officially cursed your area for any favorable winter weather. Congratulations. 
FV3 looks similar to Friday's 12z
Avalanche
Member
Oh boy, if map creation was up to weenieism, I'd let Greg Fishel come in here and make the thread. Doesn't matter who starts it, what matters is that current FV3 map ends it.
Storm5
Member
What the hell , tired of waiting on brick . Post away
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
The FV3 is out of it's mind geezz. Wish it'd verify the way it looks but I doubt it.
Leggo. Good model agreement with a large lead time. Not sure how I feel about it. This is rarified air
Avalanche
Member
With some maps showing this thing going negative tilt in SC, I would highly doubt that run of the FV3.
Avalanche
Member
Lets just take a step back and realize how great it is to have a thread on DEC. 2nd!!!!!!
What happens if it go Neg Tlit?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GFS has temps in the mid-20's with a solid snow sounding here at the height of the storm. Snow ratios will be high during this event if the model is right.
Avalanche
Member
Was hoping a met would comment on it, but moderately warmer air from the SE would surge northward.
Warm Air Advection from the coast of Carolinas.
Wow at the FV3 down into Atlanta Metro. Soundings support snow on intial on set and temps warm ~850mb so would change some areas to a wintry mess of ip/zr.
Avalanche
Member
Yes, and it would also eliminate that Miller B'ish transfer that was shown earlier.
packfan98
Moderator
I’m not a met, but going negative tilt can be a great thing in winter storms depending on when it happens. There is often significant strengthening and the low starts moving more northerly.
Avalanche
Member
Absolutely Jan 2000!!!!!!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Biggest difference between miller "A's" vs. miller "B's" aside from the track is the distribution of the winter precip. Miller A's have a sharper line between snow and rain. Miller B's have a wider area of mix to the north of the transfer.
Avalanche
Member
If that map shown earlier with this thing wrapping around (tilting) it would eliminate the miller b look that was on the table in earlier runs. Trying to find out if that map was on crack or had any legitimacy.
Kylo
Member
FV3 snowmap. Look at how far south.
The FV3 looks so crazy.
The gfs fv3 was even close for snow in north Alabama and Mississippi. It has temps between 33-35 degrees. About 4-5 degrees cooler then the previous run.Avalanche
Member
Yeah, a foot in the midlands of SC. Snow everywhere you go. LOL
Avalanche
Member
CAD extending pretty far east.
Real in it on in guys. So close for many of us on here. Little more south with the low and we will be golden!!! 6-7 days away now plenty of time.
Avalanche
Member
If this storm verifies and thermal profiles are as modeled, Brad P is way underdoing his probability map.
NoSnowATL
Member
No way this is possible. Crazy
Avalanche
Member
When do the next suites come in?
The 12z Euro is about to run while the 18z runs at 4:30.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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Dr.No about to come crash the party!
I think the snowfall amounts in southern and eastern ga is overdone but places like Columbia SC could definitely be in place with a good classic wedge. That’s when Columbia SC see good winter storms with CAD in full effect.
snowlover91
Member
Anyone have 12z GEFS members/snow totals?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
What about Athens area?
Storm5
Member
Still 6-7 days away. Plenty of time to get better or beak hearts
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packfan98
Moderator
That map he showed is an automated map from the national weather service.
ATLwxfan
Member
This map ain’t happening but it’s a good look a week out.
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NoSnowATL
Member
believe..... believe....
On soundings looks like an onset of snow. Then there is some WAA around ~850mb taking temps above freezing at that level, and below freezing again around 950mb to the surface. Verbatim probably snow changing to a mixed bag. However, on soundings the surface temp stays below freezing the entire event so if you changed from snow it would be a nasty icing event.
Here is on set of snow and ice through 00z Sunday.
