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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The GFS seems too warm at the surface in ATL-AHN corridor when considering 850s of past storms. Typically 850s colder than +5C along with a strong wedge and widespread precip. has given them mainly ZR. Hmmm....warm bias problem here? I'm not buying temps nearly as warm as the GFS has it there.
 
Can this please happen, this is during the peak of the event for Rowan county nc
 

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The CMC is warm because it has more phasing sending the 850 low west of the apps with a transfer to NE NC hence all the warm air. This, while not a high possibility right now, is something that could definitely happen if our 5H wave slows down and/or phasing happens sooner.
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snowlover91 said:
Verbatim that would probably be a VERY heavy wet snow since the upper level temps are at or below 0C and only the last few hundred feet are above freezing. Realistically you'd probably be 33-34 at the surface IMO.
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Warm nose for RDU definitely there on the 12z GFS...sleet (aka my avatar)
 

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The GFS definitely seems off on the temps given the position of the high. Hoping the ZR scenario is not a bad one for CAD areas.
 
GFS/UK are fairly close with keeping the NS energy separated from southern low. It's up in the Dakota's. The Euro/CMC are phasing quicker. Still 4 days out, we might not know for atleast a couple of more days, wouldn't be surprised to see the 18z GFS flip back to a warmer solution.

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My gfs sounding at 18z sunday. Riding that fence between ripping snowstorm and miserable cold rain
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ATLwxfan said:
Good run for NC. Should just about do it for most of GA/AL with the ULL not panning out. Still it’s a good thing that we had to watch this up to a few days out. Plenty of winter for other opportunities.


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I agree. Unless some better trends for the ULL we march on to the next one.
 
SD said:
My gfs sounding at 18z sunday. Riding that fence between ripping snowstorm and miserable cold rain
885789059054f5ca95fe3e5ceff8e6a2.jpg


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That's almost identical to mine.... we are right on that fence, my eyes will be hurting looking at CC lol
 
Jon said:
Warm nose for RDU definitely there on the 12z GFS...sleet (aka my avatar)
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Yeah it changes to sleet at that point... but the sounding metwannabe posted would probably be a heavy wet snow sounding but very borderline. Going to be a tough dividing line that will bounce around a lot.
 
metwannabe said:
That's almost identical to mine.... we are right on that fence, my eyes will be hurting looking at CC lol
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Yeah man we are legit on the border. I bet we end up on the outside looking in. A 1-3 degree trend colder takes us from a snow to sleet to rain scenario with 1-2 inches to a big 4-8 inch snow to sleet storm.

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This situation is a dual edged sword. If it ( low) slows down some, the CAD can be established better prior to precip, but conversely it might slow enough to allow the high to weaken and slide east. As usual, we are threading the needle here. Overall do not like the trends here especially outside the NW Triad, foothills and mountains and they have little wiggle room left as well IMO
 
I think it's very likely RDU/central NC will get a front-end thump of snow followed by a period of mixed precipitation. It's possible we may get some more snow or mixed precip from the backside of the system on Monday night. Accumulation here is highly uncertain depending on the temperature profiles: anything from no measurable snow to 6 or more inches is still on the table. I do think it is extremely likely we will get at least a brief period of winter precipitation, however.
 
accu35 said:
gem_asnow_seus_21.png
CMC has the Nam/Icon/Euro idea with backend energy little further west.
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All we can really hope for are a few flurries. The trend is to not close that energy off and it’s further east each run . Neither of which are good . Thank god it’s early December and we have 2 1/2 months left of winter


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Storm5 said:
All we can really hope for are a few flurries. The trend is to not close that energy off and it’s further east each run . Neither of which are good . Thank god it’s early December and we have 2 1/2 months left of winter


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Well if you want to look at it one way, we did get flurries last month so we’re ahead of schedule.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Well according to Weathernerds.org, GFS is actually a ice/mix here in N GA during much of the precip.

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Idk who created this radar simulator, but it keeps showing up on here. It's showing a mix way to far South everytime. Would not believe this at all.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Really liking the NAM at the moment for Northwest MS.
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yeah me too. I've seen these set ups play out the same for many years (been model watching and on the boards since 2008). The NAM is always our last hope and then they are dashed "almost" every single time. But every now and then it gets it right, most likely due to dumb luck lol.
 
I recall looking at the big snow event for Kansas City to Chicago a couple of weeks back and checked the GFS and Euro on which model did better. The GFS started to hone in on day 3 and Euro day 4, we are at that point today with the Euro. Going to give greatest weight to Euro/EPS todays runs on forward.
 
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