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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

I see how this is going to play out. HP is late getting into a favorable position east of the mountains. Late cold push (although strong). Favored areas NW of I85 go from rain to snow to IP (end as rain). Cold push unable to make it further south. Those areas stay rain for the duration. If you’re on the fringe now, it’s going to rain. A lot. I’m sorry. We can hope for something on the backend but that’s as good as it’s going to get
 
Bsud said:
If you are in SC, our side of Greenville, Spartanburg, pickens, and oconee, you are going to see a cold rain while those counties mentioned sees several inches of Snow/Sleet. This looks to be a classic I85 and north special.

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Really hope your right
 
ICON looks better although it looks like it goes from heavy wet snow to sleet and zr west of 85 in nc, has a pretty stout wedge
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I see how this is going to play out. HP is late getting into a favorable position east of the mountains. Late cold push (although strong). Favored areas NW of I85 go from rain to snow to IP (end as rain). Cold push unable to make it further south. Those areas stay rain for the duration. If you’re on the fringe now, it’s going to rain. A lot. I’m sorry. We can hope for something on the backend but that’s as good as it’s going to get
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eh, the NAM loves to overamp systems at this range as Rain Cold mentioned. If it has this same look tomorrow into Friday I'll throw in the towel and expect some IP mixed in with a cold rain (no pun intended!) here.
 
12z icon has tended little colder, there is a backend and very close to frozen stuff for MS/AL just couple more degrees colder than could be a suprise. So far 12z suits are colder, now on to the outliner gfs
 
I'll take improvement anywhere I can get it.... this is improved over the 6z
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accu35 said:
12z icon has tended little colder, there is a backend and very close to frozen stuff for MS/AL just couple more degrees colder than could be a suprise. So far 12z suits are colder, now on to the outliner gfs
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Only way this works is if this closes off . Otherwise it’s cold light rain
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Storm5 said:
Only way this works is if this closes off . Otherwise it’s cold light rain
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When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

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For RDU to have a significant snow/sleet accumulation Sunday high temperatures will need to be colder than currently forecast. Most of the models show the snow/sleet changing over to all rain above freezing by mid-afternoon. ICON is much colder than GFS (with a high near 33). If temperatures remain about 33-36 degrees instead of 38-40, we may see snow longer or perhaps a period of sleet.
 
Bsud said:
When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

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Talking about MS/AL is what I think he was saying
 
Bsud said:
When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

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exactly, I here people say "oh its warmer this run" or " precip is delayed this go around". So I go look at the model and that's not always the case for my area or other areas. It completely depends on where you are. People need to give locations along with these observations on the models. Sometimes you can get a sense of where it's being referenced. But other times not. Not directed at anyone in particular. I'm sure i've done it too lol.
 
Storm5 said:
Only way this works is if this closes off . Otherwise it’s cold light rain
76736cdc0fbfe0d0c898a7f23d877985.png



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Bsud said:
When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

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He’s talking about the backside of the system the upper level low (ull). Whole different from the front side of the system.
 
Bsud said:
When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

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Talking about areas to the west of the apps with the trailing energy


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Got a very similar sounding to you sd
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I'm a big fan of dry cold layers from 950-700. Really leads me to believe that we start as snow and go to sleet but those layers will be quickly warmed as winds shift south. It'll be interesting to see what we do at the surface

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SD said:
I'm a big fan of dry cold layers from 950-700. Really leads me to believe that we start as snow and go to sleet but those layers will be quickly warmed as winds shift south. It'll be interesting to see what we do at the surface

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I think if you can manage to get freezing at the sfc early, it’s gonna be hard to push it above with your cad source.
 
I think at this point, CAD areas south of 85 need to hope for a slightly faster/weaker 50/50 low so our HP can push east before our LP does. Need to filter in that cold dry air before the onset of precipitation. When will we get our first sample of that shortwave?
 
I had one those dry layers back in November and manage to get sleet/rain mix about 1/4th of the storm and that dry layer was only confined to 885-925 mb, also that cad setup was a in-situ, this dry air is much more pronounced, and this cad looks more classical, we'll see
 
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