WXinCanton
Member
FV3
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks way south of earlier runs. Certainly either far south solutions or backside snow raising the chances in AL and MS as well as GA.
People in the Mid-Atlantic is going to love the FV-3.
almost 2 1/2" qpf for CLT according to the 12z GFS. over 1" as snow, all 4 ptypes happen at some time or another
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KCLT&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KCLT&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec
snowlover91
Member
FV3 came in much warmer this run, most of the snow is in VA and Western NC and that's about it. It has the 850 low all the way up in Kentucky which is why it's so warm. No other model shows that and this will be the first good test of it in NC winter storms. Euro and UK have been much further south as has the old GFS.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
FV3
FV3 came in much warmer this run, most of the snow is in VA and Western NC and that's about it. It has the 850 low all the way up in Kentucky which is why it's so warm. No other model shows that and this will be the first good test of it in NC winter storms. Euro and UK have been much further south as has the old GFS.
Looks like it has a foot of snow for me. I wouldn't say it is just in western NC. It shows 2/3 of the state getting a huge storm.
The fv3 snowmap is wrong though, has a foot in northern ga when it's just all rain
Trust us that map is wrong, that will not be all snow.... note how it even says *includes sleet*.
The fv3 would be a quick thump to a sleetfest for me, which seems more realistic
And this.... the algorithm with the FV3 (not sure if it's a TT thing or that model) but it's abhorrent
snowlover91
Member
The FV3 snow map is completely wrong on Tidbits, it doesn't match up with the p-type and soundings at all so I wouldn't even look at it. It's showing a foot of snow in areas that see rain the entire storm. TT needs to update the algorithm they use because other sites have been able to avoid it with using different methods. I don't buy the 850 low track up into Kentucky as long as the Euro and other models have it much further south. Now if they start trending north in that direction it'll be a big win for the FV3 but right now none of the proven models show that.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The fv3 has the kind of beastly CAD high we saw during the Jan 1988 storm with a mid Feb 1987 twist to it featuring a beefier southern wave. This screams epic sleet fest in the east-central piedmont, I'm doubtful we'll have a sharp rain-snow transition zone like Jan 2017 areas where sleet could mix w/ IP might be another story altogether and there might be a bigger gradient there.
I wouldn't mind sleet, a winter storm is a winter storm, at least it's not a cold rain or zr, sleet does not really knock out power either
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Oh well, even the most conservative method for snow accumulation for the GFS had 6 plus inches for most of NC. Even that is still a big storm.
TerryInTucker
Member
Atlanta will be left out in the cold ...literally! 
NorthGaWinter4
Member
We get it... we’ve heard for 5 days how the FV3 snow maps are wrong.
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Deleted member 609
Guest
Brick buddy dont do it to yourself again!!
RVD
Meteorology Student
For better Fv3 (and other) precip types/snowfall maps, check out weathernerds.org. They have a more accurate precip-type map, custom zoom regions and sounding generation, and a more sophisticated snowfall accumulation algorithm.
Here's one I'm looking at for the Fv3, though it's only out to 102 so far.
Here's one I'm looking at for the Fv3, though it's only out to 102 so far.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Those of you that chase, how do you do it? Throw on some snow tires, ram the storm head on and pray you don’t get stuck?
Not really.... you are in the best spot (triangle area wise) but there are many south and east of this line that are nowhere near 6". Just trying to keep it realistic, I hope you get a foot, I hope you get 2 but just be cautious when looking at those clown maps
With all due respect it still needs to be clarified..... you know new people join the forum everyday and this may be the first time they've seen that map?
With kuchera I still get 20+ lol, cut that in half and that seems more likely for my area
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Not really.... you are in the best spot (triangle area wise) but there are many south and east of this line that are nowhere near 6". Just trying to keep it realistic, I hope you get a foot, I hope you get 2 but just be cautious when looking at those clown maps
Just saying if you go from Raleigh westward it is showing over half the state with 6 inches plus.
It's also showing almost nothing just 40-50 miles from you. You could get nothing or you could get a lot.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
That's how it usually is here when we get a good storm.
WXinCanton
Member
Yeah, but people will complain when those maps do not come to fruition. It needs to be reiterated over and over and over.
tonysc
Member
I love a sleet storm if I can't get snow. You're right about sleet not knocking out power, as it bounces off of everything, hence it not being as pretty as snow, but you can't beat the sound of heavy sleet falling, now that's a wintry sound.
Yep best not to focus on what the model is giving you but focus on the possibilities, that's why i didn't really worry much when models shifted yesterday, could get a bunch of snow or a bit with a sleetfest
NWMSGuy
Member
It appears on the latest GFS that the slp shoots northeastward from Mexico from hour 84 to southeastern Tx at hour 90. Is that pretty realistic? I would think if it was more into the gulf at hour 90 it would put places like Northwest MS and points eastward into play for wintry precip with the initial activity that has been showing for some time for portions of AR. I could be completely wrong however.
Storm5
Member
E28 boom or bust
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FV3 maps belong in banter just like 90% of my comments (including this one)
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Brick Tamland
Guest
You'd think by now we would have the technology to get the algorithm right to show the right amounts.
It's a better sound than hearing trees falling due to the heavy weight of ice !
Honestly if you look at all models and even ensembles they are coming into agreement on Mountains and Upper Cad areas getting wintry weather.
Another thing about those maps is they may update for the better as time goes on. If the 1040mb HP verifies, many more areas not included will be.
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
If you are too lazy to check sounding or can’t read them then just use pivotalweather for precip-types!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Not this one pal!
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Brick Tamland
Guest
E28 boom or bust
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Looks like the control, mean, and 15 out of 20 panels have at least a decent storm here. I think that is an increase from previous runs.
I'd like to place an order for e10.
e15 please.
E28 boom or bust
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