Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[GeorgiaGirl]

GFS showed just under 3 feet accumulation for Mt. Mitchell. Road trip?

I've thought about chasing this year (still don't have the go ahead to try overnight and won't until I talk to a friend) but I don't know about chasing in cases where the snow might be measured in feet. This one, I'll have to stream from my laptop if it works out.

 

[Tarheel1]

Reality check Upstate!

 

[J.C.]

We had an additional 3" of snow from the upper level low last December after the initial 9". So upper leve lows produce, and provide cold pockets.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

But what would the temps be like for those areas under an ULL? Are we talking marginal temps during the daytime?

According to the GFS, most of the snow from the ULL falls after nightfall in GA.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

In all my years,of living in GA I dont recall one time getting a good snow from an ULL.

I got 6 inches from the 2009 ULL including thundersnow.

 

[RBR71]

 

[deltadog03]

Still wanna see more cad signature (which I think we will, the GFS is going to be the last to catch up). The upper level low on the backside was a whole new wrinkle the way it was shown. Either way this could be a very good thump for the Carolinas initially, and if we get the energy to close off and sit around it’s going to pop another coastal low.

 

[snowlover91]

GFS run looked a little colder at the 850 level and the ICON, one of the warmest outliers, trended significantly colder/south. Nice consensus starting to form and I expect things to trend colder.

ICON 6z run

ICON 12z run

 

[MSnowAtl]

In all my years,of living in GA I dont recall one time getting a good snow from an ULL. ULL seems to be feast or famine. Some get a lot, others nearby get nothing.

03/01/2009...it was a Sunday 42 with rain/ sleet by noon 31 with heavy snow and thunder...Atlanta got 4.2 inches while Athens got 8 inches or more!

 

[LovingGulfLows]

03/01/2009...it was a Sunday 42 with rain/ sleet by noon 31 with heavy snow and thunder...Atlanta got 4.2 inches while Athens got 8 inches or more!

My avatar is actually the radar of the March 2009 ULL during the heart of the storm.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

03/01/2009...it was a Sunday 42 with rain/ sleet by noon 31 with heavy snow and thunder...Atlanta got 4.2 inches while Athens got 8 inches or more!

SER must have been out of town that weekend

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Feb 2014 Ull was insane and also had thunder, heaviest snow I've ever seen

 

[RBR71]

If your post got deleted you can cuss me, I did it..... just trying to clean it up and keep it crisp. If I'm being a jerk it's not intentional just trying to be consistent ( shhh I even deleted an admins post )

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

I've thought about chasing this year (still don't have the go ahead to try overnight and won't until I talk to a friend) but I don't know about chasing in cases where the snow might be measured in feet. This one, I'll have to stream from my laptop if it works out.

Mitchell ends up with anywhere between 4 to 5 inches of QPF based on the last GFS run. Nearly all of that would be snow.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

I got 6 inches from the 2009 ULL including thundersnow.

I got a half inch even though we had thundersnow also. I think about 6 inches fell out of the sky but very little stuck. I blame the March sun angle.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh my bad met I forgot not to mention 2014

 

[MSnowAtl]

My avatar is actually the radar of the March 2009 ULL during the heart of the storm.

Nice!!! My finest memory of an ULL. It was mini repeat the following year on 03/12/10.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

SER must have been out of town that weekend

He used to live in Carrollton, not Atlanta. As I said in banter, people will remember storms on a basis to basis for them usually more than anything.

Carry on, folks.

 

[Mitch West]

Over two inches in Nashville isn’t flurries


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Flurries for my area, I wasn't talking about Nashville.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Wow, that GFS run looked great for NC. Can't complain if you get above your average snowfall from one storm before December 15. The models have all been very positive today for here.

 

[CyclonicFury]

12z CMC shows snow farther south and temperatures much colder in central NC. A step in the right direction

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Since this storm is still about 5 days out dont that mean that this medium range and if Im correct Euro is the best at medium range.

 

[Snowfan]

Since this storm is still about 5 days out dont that mean that this medium range and if Im correct Euro is the best at medium range.

Yes, we are currently in medium range and the Euro is very good in mid range.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS-FV3 has the high a tad weaker than the GFS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The fact that some areas in nc might triple or quadruple there winter snow average is incredible and its only December, still have many storms systems this winter

 

[ForsythSnow]

GFS-FV3 has the high a tad weaker than the GFS.

Surface slightly colder so far however.

Good trends on the models today so far. Knew it would rebound. I think that for NE GA, it's just going to be a wait until it arrives to see how the CAD plays out since the models as mentioned seem to be horrible at handling that. If a 1037 mb high can't do the job then there has to be some insanely warm air being shoved north.

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS run looked a little colder at the 850 level and the ICON, one of the warmest outliers, trended significantly colder/south. Nice consensus starting to form and I expect things to trend colder.

ICON 6z run

ICON 12z run

High 5 mb stronger on 12z, hence more S track?!! Great trend

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GEFS?

 

[J.C.]

Wasn't the CAD grossly underdone by models for the past two systems? I recall temperatures being 4-6 colder than modeled. Its always possible this follows that trend.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well since we been seeing storms with so much qpf from this active stj, and once it's January when we reach good climo, there might be a set up much colder/bigger than this

 

[mrdaddyman]

Griteater says the LP on the 12Z UK exits off around Jacksonville, Fl. and then goes bonkers with a big phase. This is South of it's previous run.

 

[WeatherAddiction]

What would have to happen to get measurable snow fall down even into the midlands of SC?

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Really? 2 feet won’t be there most?

The pattern is forecast to be more favorable in Jan and Feb. So I believe NC will see a bigger storm when there is more cold air in place.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

FV3 is a tad more Amp’d this run. 850’s are not as cold. Pretty similar overall though. Isobars are a little deeper at 96. 2m temps are colder than 6z

 

[RBR71]

GEFS?

 

[RBR71]

Griteater says the LP on the 12Z UK exits off around Jacksonville, Fl. and then goes bonkers with a big phase. This is South of it's previous run.

Could certainly be a precursor of things to come, will not be a bit surprised if the Euro comes south today......

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Honestly, this storm will end up being a Mid Atlantic Storm because our storms usually need the Gfs to have them suppressed in Cuba in the 5 day timeframe.

 

[crecre9]

At predicted temps on Mt. Mitchell summit, a snow water ratio of 15:1 is not out of the question. 4-5in of QPF could be 60-75 inches of snow.

 

[WXinCanton]

Could certainly be a precursor of things to come, will not be a bit surprised if the Euro comes south today......

How many times has the Ukie tipped off what the Euro will do? Too many to count.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like a 6 inch plus mean for most of NC. Can't beat that.