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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

For those wondering why the GFS was colder, a big key is the 850 low track as well. Notice the 06z run had it further north and areas like SC and NC were in an E to SE flow at 850.
gfs_z850_vort_us_26.png

The 12z run today has the 850 low over SC and very diffuse, notice NW winds aloft over NC. This is what NC and even SC folks want for snow.
gfs_z850_vort_us_25.png
 
snowlover91 said:
00z CMC snow map.
gem_asnow_seus_32.png

12z CMC snow map, nice shift south in axis of heaviest snow and CMC has consistently been north of other models.
gem_asnow_seus_30.png
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That is a good sign when the farthest north model has snow here now. Looks like all the major globals have at least some snow here for my area.
 
I would not be surprised if that secondary low disappears again, everyone forgets about it, then right around the time the main event is pulling away, models show it again. By then, it would be right on us especially for GA, SC, and NC. So people who missed with the main event suddenly have 12-24 hrs to prepare for a snowstorm.. just a thought. I seen something like that happen in 2008 or 2009 I believe.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS is really trying to give Larry, Phil, & Chris some hope w/ the trailing upper wave.
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What's funny is I made mention to watch that backside piece a few days ago, as has others, and if timed right.....well, you get that .lol euro to me is hinting at that possibly as well
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah for folks in ATL and GA in general, we gotta hope both GFS models are onto the secondary forming from an strengthening upper level shortwave. The upper level low closes off at 168.

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png



Maybe this can close off sooner so that it can give a nice thump of snow to those on the northsides of the ULL.
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In general, that's a vort track you want to see for snow along & north of the I-20 corridor up to nearly I-40
 
Things look to be getting a little more interesting for the central Alabama folks and others again. Let’s keep the positive trends going in our direction.
 
DopplerWx said:
gfs not too bad for clt. thought it would show more sleet.
prec.png
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If we see anything wintry at all, I'm anticipating the classic I-85 split. I can't wait to have a paste bomb at my workplace in Huntersville, only to have it be a sleetfest just 10 minutes down the road at mby.



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don't get caught up in the outcome of each and every model run. We are right in the period where these trends really start to matter.

12z gfs: 3rd run in a row with a suppressed trend
12z CMC: suppressed trend
12z FV3: suppressed trend at 96hrs
12Z UK: Looks very good


these trends are the most important right now. don't look at the snow maps as they will break and make your heart every couple of hours haha.

If you are in Central/Western NC. Northern GA, SC, AL These 12z trends are a great sign for you to see some frozen stuff this weekend
 
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