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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

To the Midlands of SC areas. Outside the Northern Midlands, the EPS and the GEFS have finally backed off with some wonky members. Mainly show some flakes, possibly at the end, as trace amounts.
 
Here's something that anyone in ATL can back! It's real snow!
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I am over 70% confident the low level jet causes Blizzard Warning criteria for the northern/central mountains and about 30% chance of blizzard warning criteria for foothill counties. It’s been awhile since Statesville and Hickory has seen this. Some locations could see the sides of homes BURRIED do to the screaming low level jet. I’m talking up to 6 feet along the blue ridge parkway near Sparta, NC.
 
I'm still not sold that the freezing line doesn't dip further down into NGA at some point during the storm as we get closer to Sat Night and into the rest of the weekend. Too many times I have experienced a forecast of cold rain only to end up having it switch to ice and sleet due to a over performing wedge. Interested to see the 0Z runs tonight and see if any pick up on a more robust intrusion of cold into our area here.
 
I'm impressed with the FV3 so far with how consistent it has been compared to the other models as others have mentioned earlier. It's managed to maintain a steady balance and not jump like nearly every other model has at some point. If it verifies or not will see if we can put our trust in the model for future storms. So far, I'd have to say the CMC is the loser in terms of run-to-run consistency as it jumped far too much, followed by the GFS which wasn't much better.

I'm excited to see how this storm plays out regardless of if it snows here or not as it looks ripe up ahead and winter has only begun. With a potential historic storm for the NC mountains this early in the season, who knows what's ahead.

That being said, I think ice is going to be a problem for My area eastward, then northeastward, but that back side snow could very well start this winter off well for GA members.
 
My mean on the 18Z GEFS went back up to 16" after falling to 13" on 12Z. We have 9 ensemble members of 20" or more at KINT. Don't believe this is at all possible just wanted to report it has gone back up after dropping from 6Z to 12Z
 
scroback said:
Ensembles are always better than deterministic guidance. I think it's more that we shift away from using global models and switch to regional or non-hydrostatic models & their ensembles. But ensembles are always the more valuable tool. SREF, HREF, HRRRE, etc will all be coming into their "wheelhouse"
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Thanks for all of the maps and analysis that you have provided over the past couple of days. It's becoming quickly obvious that you are a great addition to the forum!
 
This will be fun to watch unfold no matter what. It will be nice seeing the obs being reported by our NC members of their historic storm. It will be interesting to see where the transition lines set up and how it unfolds. Then we will have the backside energy which hopefully will allow most of the board to at least see some early season flakes!
 
Snowflowxxl said:
This will be fun to watch unfold no matter what. It will be nice seeing the obs being reported by our NC members of their historic storm. It will be interesting to see where the transition lines set up and how it unfolds. Then we will have the backside energy which hopefully will allow most of the board to at least see some early season flakes!
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Its gonna be a fun weekend. I hope those of us who may not get in on the action are still rooting for our fellow southerners.
 
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