It’s ok, Shawn. We never truely believed it would do anything anyways.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
I am contemplating going to my friends house in Huntersville, NC. Would it be worth it ? I know that area wont be in the jackpot.
packfan98
Moderator
Here's the post from Hurricane Tracker on American. Good points to ponder for sure.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...winter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5056867
"Good evening everyone. I wanted to take a moment and give y’all an update in light of the disastrous communications issue that is unfolding before our eyes.
1. Overall things have NOT changed that much since this time yesterday. Euro came in with a swath of 20”+ from KAVL to KTNB and consistent liquid equivalents around 2.50”. Duly noted is that the Euro was NOT mentioned in the afternoon discussion by GSP. It has been absolutely rock solid on this storm system since last Saturday! To boot, we added the CMC model today with a lot of liquid equivalent, too. And now the 18Z FV3 (which we should all be looking at since it IS our future!), comes in with at least 2.00” of liquid (minimum QPF in Bristol, TN but that is expected given the setup).
2. 12Z NAM was a dumpster fire and has since corrected itself at 18Z (more corrections coming too, I suspect). 12Z GFS was a dumpster fire (just ridiculously low QPF) and p-type issues abound. Yet, this is the model of choice today by GSP. Oh but wait there’s more! 18Z GFS self-corrected and came in with more QPF and colder wedging solution. You want to hang your hat on the GFS? Better be ready to make more changes to the snowfall forecast as the GFS shifts.
3. Let’s talk warm nose. Does it exist? YES. Someone in the main thread said NE Georgia was out of the snow. I agree. This is climatology. Even parts of the favored escarpment areas will see sleet for a time being Sunday morning. What is confusing the models is the isothermal layer in the soundings. My eye sees the isothermal layer as a deep layer of snow, since dendrites will be falling into this isothermal layer. ALL MODELS say that even at 850mb temperature of 0.1 deg F this melts the flakes. I just completely and utterly disagree. In all my years of forecasting, deep isothermal layers that hover on the 0 deg isotherm (and are below freezing either side of this layer) tend to run as all snow. Watch for this in the next 24 hours.
4. Do we need to cut down snow amounts? Maybe. But don’t forget we are using a 7:1 ratio anyway to start with (see my post from yesterday). So instead of 2.50” of liquid coming out to 17.5” of cement, maybe we go 2.00” of liquid and 14” of snow. I’m currently most comfortable going with a range of 8-12” for KAVL and the eastern escarpment. Boone will see slightly more sleet because they are actually *too high* in elevation and above the wedge into the warm nose. So instead of 17” there, I think 8-12” also applies to them.
Hang in there folks. Watch the 00Z trends. Can’t ignore the intense dynamics and the fire hose that is our deep tropical moisture" connection!
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...winter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5056867
"Good evening everyone. I wanted to take a moment and give y’all an update in light of the disastrous communications issue that is unfolding before our eyes.
1. Overall things have NOT changed that much since this time yesterday. Euro came in with a swath of 20”+ from KAVL to KTNB and consistent liquid equivalents around 2.50”. Duly noted is that the Euro was NOT mentioned in the afternoon discussion by GSP. It has been absolutely rock solid on this storm system since last Saturday! To boot, we added the CMC model today with a lot of liquid equivalent, too. And now the 18Z FV3 (which we should all be looking at since it IS our future!), comes in with at least 2.00” of liquid (minimum QPF in Bristol, TN but that is expected given the setup).
2. 12Z NAM was a dumpster fire and has since corrected itself at 18Z (more corrections coming too, I suspect). 12Z GFS was a dumpster fire (just ridiculously low QPF) and p-type issues abound. Yet, this is the model of choice today by GSP. Oh but wait there’s more! 18Z GFS self-corrected and came in with more QPF and colder wedging solution. You want to hang your hat on the GFS? Better be ready to make more changes to the snowfall forecast as the GFS shifts.
3. Let’s talk warm nose. Does it exist? YES. Someone in the main thread said NE Georgia was out of the snow. I agree. This is climatology. Even parts of the favored escarpment areas will see sleet for a time being Sunday morning. What is confusing the models is the isothermal layer in the soundings. My eye sees the isothermal layer as a deep layer of snow, since dendrites will be falling into this isothermal layer. ALL MODELS say that even at 850mb temperature of 0.1 deg F this melts the flakes. I just completely and utterly disagree. In all my years of forecasting, deep isothermal layers that hover on the 0 deg isotherm (and are below freezing either side of this layer) tend to run as all snow. Watch for this in the next 24 hours.
4. Do we need to cut down snow amounts? Maybe. But don’t forget we are using a 7:1 ratio anyway to start with (see my post from yesterday). So instead of 2.50” of liquid coming out to 17.5” of cement, maybe we go 2.00” of liquid and 14” of snow. I’m currently most comfortable going with a range of 8-12” for KAVL and the eastern escarpment. Boone will see slightly more sleet because they are actually *too high* in elevation and above the wedge into the warm nose. So instead of 17” there, I think 8-12” also applies to them.
Hang in there folks. Watch the 00Z trends. Can’t ignore the intense dynamics and the fire hose that is our deep tropical moisture" connection!
I think it's possible for us
ATLwxfan
Member
Aren’t you near cinci? Why not just wait for the snow to come to you like next week?
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Yes i am. I wasnt aware there would be snow here next week. I just dont wanna miss out on a once in a lifetime storm. Im tired of being nickle and dimed. I wanna experience another big dog like last December in GA !
No snow for you
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Good to see Isohume respond. Tough job working at NWS GSP
Lowtown
Member
I would think those lower dewpoints all the way down to the Gulf coast would greatly limit instability there. One of my biggest concerns (among many) is moisture-robbing thunderstorms down there, so that’s a good sign to me.
A met on the other board is forecasting only 1-3 in Raleigh and 2-5 in Charlotte.
BHS1975
Member
Here is 18Z euro hourly precip beginning 0Z Sunday.
TerryInTucker
Member
Backend might surprise ATL a bit.
Jessy89
Member
Personally I hope the euro verifies has 8-12 in mby
Sandbar
Member
EURO is oh so close for RDU. I still think we end up on the lower side if accumulations but......
I saw where DT has RDU in a 4-8" band. If he nails it awesome. If not I can always berate him on his Facebook page.....lol
I saw where DT has RDU in a 4-8" band. If he nails it awesome. If not I can always berate him on his Facebook page.....lol
That ULL is going to be fun to track. It wouldn't take much to drop that S and turn a bit. Prob wishful thinking. Lol
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Not sure why you say oh so close. Euro has been showing RDU with a good hit the past two days.
Jessy89
Member
Could there be thunder snow with ull
whatalife
Moderator
Isn’t wishful thinking what most of us do on here anyway
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Very wellIsn’t wishful thinking what most of us do on here anyway
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12z EPS has an 84% chance of 6" or more of "snow" at RDU. Still an impressive signal regardless of actual snow ratios etc.