Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Brick Tamland]

What's your forecast brick?

I think I'm good for 6 inches of snow/sleet/freezing rain.

 

[TheBatman]

Hour 51 nam. Looks identical to 12z nam

 

[Sandbar]

RAH is probably right. Hate to say it but this just isn't the slam dunk these clown maps are depicting unless you are in the mountains. I suppose something could alter it but best IMO to accept the probable reality....I guess we will see but the winter weather season is just getting started!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Just remember January 2017. Models can be wrong even near the actual event.

 

[Nomanslandva]

Wish I lived in SW Virginia


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I am not SW enough went from 30 to 6 that run of the Euro and don't like what the ENS members did. They are back to 2 solutions. Some pretty far south and some major amped. Last nights individual members were more middle of the road with differences in strength. We'll see what happens tonight. It has gone back and forth so much. Fun to watch though.

 

[Avalanche]

That was very diheartening from the nws rah. Really though, waa is a tough cookie.

 

[TheBatman]

At hour 57 on nam the low is little further south. Wintry precip breaking on in north Texas panhandle. Still looking good. Also the high pressure is at 1039mb. 1 mb stronger.

 

[Snowfan]

The high looks a little stronger on the NAM. The low should be south of the 12z.

 

[Webberweather53]

One more 12z EPS map because why not lol. Lights out west of US HWY 1 even if this is mostly sleet somehow.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

DP’s looking good in the CAD region at hour 57. A good tick colder. HP up top looking strong. Beastly high back west

 

[Cary_Snow95]

One downside to the recent NAM runs is every run the dewpoints are going up across central nc by about 2

 

[Brick Tamland]

Well, if we are within 24 hours and the models are about the same as they are now, and it ends up like RAH says, then the technology really needs to be improved with regards to the models.

 

[snowlover91]

That was very diheartening from the nws rah. Really though, waa is a tough cookie.

My guess is they are waiting to get in range of the high res models like the NAM which will pick up on any potential warm nose.

 

[Avalanche]

One more 12z EPS map because why not lol. Lights out west of US HWY 1 even if this is mostly sleet somehow.
View attachment 8506

10 inches in my county per map, yet nws says good luck seeing slop even in the triad area. Heartbroken....

 

[accu35]

1040 H on the nam

 

[Avalanche]

My guess is they are waiting to get in range of the high res models like the NAM which will pick up on any potential warm nose.

If we were on the west side of a miller a id hold onto hope...but cant escape the atlantic push of air

 

[WXinCanton]

Well, if we are within 24 hours and the models are about the same as they are now, and it ends up like RAH says, then the technology really needs to be improved with regards to the models.

Brick models are guidance/tools. Not gospel.

 

[Brick Tamland]

One more 12z EPS map because why not lol. Lights out west of US HWY 1 even if this is mostly sleet somehow.
View attachment 8506

Wow, 7 inches or more from Wake westward.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

18z Nam with a jump south at 63