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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 8505 Jimmy, preparing for glory.....
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I quit on this storm last night. I thought it was inevitable that today’s 12z Euro was going to shift north and I’ll just be damned if it didn’t move south. We’ve got a little bit of wiggle room now. Let’s flatten this sucker out just a hair more though. Still too juicy for my liking
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I quit on this storm last night. I thought it was inevitable that today’s 12z Euro was going to shift north and I’ll just be damned if it didn’t move south. We’ve got a little bit of wiggle room now. Let’s flatten this sucker out just a hair more though. Still too juicy for my liking
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Don't let it suck you in !!!!
 
NCSNOW said:
To say Im not starting to get jacked up now, is putting it mildly. Ive never seen model runs for days on end, espeacilly ens means give my area 12+ totals. They whole key is to keep the 850low south of you, prefearby 100 miles as it slides by W-E. The 2m temps and the qpf are there. Just want to keep the warm nose absent or minimized and enjoy 36 hours plus of snowfall for a change lol.
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Yeah, what do we need to see to keep the 850 low trending south? And to keep this a Miller A, rather than a B? That seems to be an issue as well. More separation, later phasing with the northern stream?
 
Any guesses as to when and if the upstate counties north of I 85 get put under a watch? I would think Oconee Pickens Greenville Spartanburg counties get a watch
 
That surprise band over NJ! Nothing like getting a surprise 6-8”, out of nowhere! Gives me hope for the weekend!
 
scroback said:
It's possible lol. I'm most familiar with the caviots of the GFS, but I do know CAD, nwp and "well forecast" can never be used in the same sentence. I'll probably look at some peer reviewed articles about nwp and CAD tonight. While it sounds like I'm cherry picking, I do recall Jan 2017 being in >95% probs of 6" of snow on the EPS in Raleigh, but it RAINED the whole night, with a dusting at the end of the precip
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I hope you don't think I was busting your chops with my question, it was not meant that way. It was just the confident tone from a new member who I had no idea your background after 3 posts and was just checking how you came to that conclusion, sorry if it came across as snarky
 
Not saying these clown maps won't verify but we have seen this to many times.... with a storm this strong and juicy coming in from the gulf there is zero chance someone does not get hammered with WAA. Every storm it happens and someone gets the shaft. Obviously the mountains should be pretty safe but outside of the mountains could easily get the shaft.
 
MichaelJ said:
I hope you don't think I was busting your chops with my question, it was not meant that way. It was just the confident tone from a new member who I had no idea your background after 3 posts and was just checking how you came to that conclusion, sorry if it came across as snarky
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All good man
 
RAH saying rain with an inch or two of snow in the Triad. Talk about being conservative.
 
I wasn't expecting the NWS out of Raleigh to go all in with their afternoon discussion, but this was a little surprising:

-Ptype: Still appears to be mostly a rain event through Sun in areas
from the Triangle to the S and E, albeit with a little wintry precip
early in the event. For areas N and W of the Triangle, including the
Triad and most VA border counties, a wintry mix with some
accumulation is expected for most of the event through Sun, although
we may see a trend to mostly cold rain Sun afternoon. Some low level
drying is expected by Mon, but decent moisture and lift in the -12C
to -18C depth should result in a secondary chance of some light snow
or a wintry mix associated with the polar wave. It`s too early for
specific amounts, but an inch or two is not out of the question in
the Triad region, with a non-zero chance of greater amounts. This
could change, however, especially given the sensitivity of precip
types to small changes in thermal structure and lift, so stay tuned.
 
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