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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Chattanooga Tn. doing what Chattanooga does...

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packfan98 said:
Nice bump back south on the 18z GEFS on the snow depth maps on pivotal. Colder at the surface and aloft. 12z seems to be a bit of a blip. After the 0z runs tonight, we should be putting less weight on the ensemble suite, but they are fun to look at when they are all screaming for a big winter storm!
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Ensembles are always better than deterministic guidance. I think it's more that we shift away from using global models and switch to regional or non-hydrostatic models & their ensembles. But ensembles are always the more valuable tool. SREF, HREF, HRRRE, etc will all be coming into their "wheelhouse"
 
Once again, Hurricane Tracker knocks it out of the park in the mountain thread in the other forum! Take a read, and step back from the ledge...
 
packfan98 said:
All of the 18z global models seemed to have beefed up total precip after taking a slight dip with 12z. I have a feeling that at least the surface temps will trend down over the next few runs for the areas in the heart of the CAD as long as the HP doesn't fade or the track of the lows shift.
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There is also a much earlier onset of precip and heavier totals for Saturday evening. At that time most of our soundings are solid snow until 900-925mb. That leaves me to wonder if we are seeing at least weak cold dry advection in these layers along with snow falling and melting can we cool the lowest 100mb to isothermal by Saturday evening before the really big stuff gets here? That would certainly lead to at least higher amounts of total snowfall if not accumulations

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SD said:
There is also a much earlier onset of precip and heavier totals for Saturday evening. At that time most of our soundings are solid snow until 900-925mb. That leaves me to wonder if we are seeing at least weak cold dry advection in these layers along with snow falling and melting can we cool the lowest 100mb to isothermal by Saturday evening before the really big stuff gets here? That would certainly lead to at least higher amounts of total snowfall if not accumulations

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If you're on the "no snow" train... then this sort of thermodynamical/dynamical cooling is exactly what would bust your forecast. It's always possible that precip rates and QG ascent can contribute enough to keep the warm nose at bay
 
Parker said:
I would love to see other models join in on a solution similar to this. Maybe the ULL will gain some strength and start to show on the others, but I’m not super optimistic with only the icon on my side.
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I'm with you that is only 5 miles from my house but l think l would see some very light snow from that map...
 
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