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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Kylo said:
You leaning more sleet or frzn towards Triangle?
Click to expand...

I'm leaning that way over rain/snow. It wouldn't take a whole lot to put a good part of that column on the GFS above freezing and I certainly don't trust the GFS to sniff out the warm nose (if at all) due to its coarse vertical resolution and poor handling of the low-level CAD dome.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this taken at face value on the GFS (which is rarely a good idea when it comes to these kinds of setups) is a snow sounding at RDU but I don't feel comfortable with this much veering in the profile and winds screaming at 60 KT from the SSW near 700 hPa. Classic recipe for a very strong, over performing warm nose.

I've seen this movie before...

View attachment 8697
Click to expand...

But but but the DGZ is fully super saturated. Lol. God I hope not man.


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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this taken at face value on the GFS (which is rarely a good idea when it comes to these kinds of setups) is a snow sounding at RDU but I don't feel comfortable with this much veering in the profile and winds screaming at 60 KT from the SSW near 700 hPa.

I've seen this movie before...

View attachment 8697
Click to expand...
Btw Eric, I'm guessing you are in the University City area of CLT right? Just wondering
 
Here's the last panel of the 18z RGEM. I like that 1038 HP. I'll be interested to see how it looks tomorrow.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_54.png
 
The globals are not backing down. Looks like RAH is calling for 3 to 5 inches of snow for me. I would gladly take that for the first storm of the season.
 
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