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Thursday, Friday, Saturday into Sunday....That's 3.5 days give or take
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Very consistent, along with the other globals today. The last NAM run is really the only bad run today, and folks have said that run could have been wonky.
I'll be honest, I'm not getting all the sleet at RDU talk. Can someone show me where there is an abundance of sleet soundings around Wake County? I think that is just a strawman that is getting bandied about a lot without a proper assessment of the synoptic pattern. The H85 low is taking a near-optimal track for RDU - there shouldn't be a big warm nose unless that feature trends northward. Seems like it should be mainly a snow or rain scenario to me. I think there could be some sleet and a lot of 5:1 ratio snow with surface temps near freezing, but I'm not so sure I am ready to buy a sleet storm. It's close, don't get me wrong, but I don't think there is going to be a large area of sleet with this setup. I think there may be a narrow corridor of sleet before a quick transition to rain southeast of there, and yes, Wake County is going to be riding the line and yes, I realize how that normally ends up.
Kylo
Member
Nothing bad today. Odds are we won’t see big totals but still a good chance to see a major winter storm. My hope is it would be like Jan 2016 and not 2017. We get 1-2” sleet/snow in early December that would be a great start to winter.
Larger map posted above AshevilleWX
Showmeyourtds
Member
View attachment 8668 A ray of sunshine!? I’m assuming this map was made before the 12z runs!
Can't speak for the folks in the Carolinas, but anyone who expects a dusting to 2" along and north of I-20 thru Atlanta is out of their mind. Again, going to be predominantly a cold rain event down here...Along & north of Lake Lanier-different ball game, but for Atlanta, don't buy it.
Kylo
Member
Looks like Euro has it between ILM/MYR. Is that perfect or a little south of that better?
That's pretty darn good to get in the optimal banding, but given this marginal setup I'd trade a further south track and less lift for hopefully another degree or two.
FFC:
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Rain returns to the area Friday, with a challenging forecast through
the next five days. Increasing mid and upper level moisture is
expected overnight tonight, and have opted to start rain chances 6-8
hours sooner than previously advertised given the tendency for high-
based precip to begin earlier than the model timing consensus.
At this point, precip Friday should be all rain given temperatures
will comfortably be above freezing across north and central Georgia.
Into the overnight period, temperatures in north Georgia will drop
into the mid 30s, with some isolated areas of 32. As a result, can
not rule out light rain/sleet mix over the higher elevations. No
accumulations are anticipated at this time.
Categorical pops remain in the grids into Saturday morning, with a
wet Saturday in store. See extended period discussion below.
31
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
The above storm system gets a little more complicated Saturday
into Monday night. Most of the precip Saturday will be rain with
rain becoming heavy at times Saturday afternoon and into Saturday
night. As the wedge strengthens Saturday night, colder air will
move into northeast GA turning the rain into snow on the mountain
ridges and freezing rain across parts of northeast GA.
Temperatures will bottom out right around the freezing mark across
northeast GA with mid 30s across the rest of north GA. While rain
is expected outside of northeast GA, there could be a little sleet
mixed in with the rain across north GA. The heaviest rain will
move off to our east Sunday but the cold air will stay in place
keeping a mix of r/zr over northeast GA, snow in the mountain and
rain elsewhere. As the surface low pulls to our east, colder air
will spread across the CWA Sunday night and into Monday and Monday
night. This will turn all precip into a rain/snow mix, although
amounts will be light. Skies clear Tuesday, but the relief will be
short lived as another system moves into the southeast US by mid
to late week.
An SPS will be issued for the winter precip potential and the
heavy rain potential.
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Rain returns to the area Friday, with a challenging forecast through
the next five days. Increasing mid and upper level moisture is
expected overnight tonight, and have opted to start rain chances 6-8
hours sooner than previously advertised given the tendency for high-
based precip to begin earlier than the model timing consensus.
At this point, precip Friday should be all rain given temperatures
will comfortably be above freezing across north and central Georgia.
Into the overnight period, temperatures in north Georgia will drop
into the mid 30s, with some isolated areas of 32. As a result, can
not rule out light rain/sleet mix over the higher elevations. No
accumulations are anticipated at this time.
Categorical pops remain in the grids into Saturday morning, with a
wet Saturday in store. See extended period discussion below.
31
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
The above storm system gets a little more complicated Saturday
into Monday night. Most of the precip Saturday will be rain with
rain becoming heavy at times Saturday afternoon and into Saturday
night. As the wedge strengthens Saturday night, colder air will
move into northeast GA turning the rain into snow on the mountain
ridges and freezing rain across parts of northeast GA.
Temperatures will bottom out right around the freezing mark across
northeast GA with mid 30s across the rest of north GA. While rain
is expected outside of northeast GA, there could be a little sleet
mixed in with the rain across north GA. The heaviest rain will
move off to our east Sunday but the cold air will stay in place
keeping a mix of r/zr over northeast GA, snow in the mountain and
rain elsewhere. As the surface low pulls to our east, colder air
will spread across the CWA Sunday night and into Monday and Monday
night. This will turn all precip into a rain/snow mix, although
amounts will be light. Skies clear Tuesday, but the relief will be
short lived as another system moves into the southeast US by mid
to late week.
An SPS will be issued for the winter precip potential and the
heavy rain potential.
packfan98
Moderator
The EPS, Euro, FV3, and UKMET held solid for the areas expected to get the heaviest axis of frozen precip. Living on the southern fringe of any potential system is always stressful. There is still some things to iron out with the extent of the cold air and timing. The NAM will be in useful range tomorrow and we will have better sampling too. It's pretty remarkable that the models have been locked onto this system for so many days!
Yeah this is one of those times when if you live in Atlanta, you drive up to Rabun County in NE GA and stay in a cabin for the weekend and hope to see some snow.
Snow maps at this point (for a areas on the edges of the core) are only good for showing the transition zone. If a snow map goes from solid 10+ then rapidly starts contouring down from there and you find yourself in that contoured zone, you are in trouble. The snowfall numbers on the edges are complete bullsh** other than that
Almost 10 at the house. LolFor you met
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No snow for you
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SCDOT treating the roads today. Seems early
I’ve been in the Euro 8+ camp for several days now but I’ve already accepted my backend half inch of slop and rain. I’m ok with that. My Miller A is waiting around January 4
snowlover91
Member
Interesting view from the RGEM ensembles for the LP track in the GOM.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best ! Gotta keep expectations in check.
Jon
Member
The last half of your post is pretty much what folks are talking about....
There doesn’t have to be a “big warm nose” for sleet, as I’m certain you know. In some gfs soundings yesterday they were definitely sleet. It just doesn’t take much...the soundings aren’t exactly spectacular and cold enough at all levels to rule out sleet....I’d have to have it a lot colder, like last year for our 6-10”+ storm we had.
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Avalanche
Member
Not bad for kalibet springs.
The folks in NE ATL suburbs out towards Athens and up to the mountains should continue to monitor the weather. The models are under estimating the strength of CAD in GA. High snow/sleet accumulations are possible.