Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Fountainguy97]

Can a 1035HP get the job done?

No. Maybe in January with a much colder air supply. But not with what we have to work with.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Can a 1035HP get the job done?

I suppose it would depend on how far south it pushes. Certainly wouldn't want to squarsh ($1 to Roy D Mercer) the moisture.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Here we go with Allan's thoughts:

That is awesome. That would be a major storm for most of NC.

 

[Brick Tamland]

I have read others say look at the globals regarding the HP and the NAM regarding cad.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

NAM looks more defined this time out to 30 a maybe a touch warmer. splitting hairs

 

[ForsythSnow]

1037 moving in faster. Should be a better run.

 

[Metwannabe]

Damn

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He has a cold bias

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[Rain Cold]

Allan is always very bullish.

I can't wait till we get past the weakening trends with the high pressure.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Yep CAD already building in better at 36 now and low looks south. Id bet on improvements down the line.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah I don't think you can just ignore the NAM entirely here, the globals have issues depicting CAD, except hopefully, the FV3 might be better than the old GFS with handling it (something we'll figure out this winter).

The HP might be too strong though.

 

[DopplerWx]

Allan is always very bullish.

I can't wait till we get past the weakening trends with the high pressure.

cut those totals in half east of the mtns and it would still be too high

 

[CyclonicFury]

850 mb temps colder in NC this run

 

[Webberweather53]

The last half of your post is pretty much what folks are talking about....

There doesn’t have to be a “big warm nose” for sleet, as I’m certain you know. In some gfs soundings yesterday they were definitely sleet. It just doesn’t take much...the soundings aren’t exactly spectacular and cold enough at all levels to rule out sleet....I’d have to have it a lot colder, like last year for our 6-10”+ storm we had.




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Yeah the models are usually piss-poor in setups like this with depicting a narrower corridor of sleet than what actually verifies. We may see a sharper rain-snow line on the back-end of the storm as cold air advection aloft plus the ULL attempt to scour out the CAD but there's a good part of this storm where it looks like ice pellets could be an issue, I think even more so in Charlotte obviously vs RDU.

 

[Snowfan]

DPs look lower on the NAM. Should be a good run for those in the CAD region.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

This run should maybe moderate the panic among some NC posters I would think

 

[1300m]

The last half of your post is pretty much what folks are talking about....

There doesn’t have to be a “big warm nose” for sleet, as I’m certain you know. In some gfs soundings yesterday they were definitely sleet. It just doesn’t take much...the soundings aren’t exactly spectacular and cold enough at all levels to rule out sleet....I’d have to have it a lot colder, like last year for our 6-10”+ storm we had.




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Oh I agree, it's a super-marginal setup for the RDU corridor, I'm just saying that in the end it may end up being more of a rain or snow situation with only a narrow corridor of sleet (which Wake County is obviously a front runner to still be in potentially). Just my thoughts based on typical ptype distribution with these sort of setups - but I could be wrong and it'll certainly be interesting to see how wide the sleet zone ends up being.

 

[RollTide18]

Closed off at 500mb in Texas where it other runs it wasn’t, probably won’t mean much though

 

[Snowfan]

NAM has a 1038 mb high.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Coldest 850s have been in NC since 0z last night

 

[Jessy89]

High maybe trending a touch stronger again