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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

At this point, I don't really understand what is inconsistent with the models? I mean, there is a little wobbling. But for places in the triad and mountains and even into charlotte, it's been very consistent it seems. Has showed over 6 inches of frozen whatever for charlotte for like 3-4 days now.
 
Don Sutherland had an interesting post at the other board.

IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region.
 
Robert West said:
At this point, I don't really understand what is inconsistent with the models? I mean, there is a little wobbling. But for places in the triad and mountains and even into charlotte, it's been very consistent it seems. Has showed over 6 inches of frozen whatever for charlotte for like 3-4 days now.
Click to expand...
The only thing ive noticed is the convection along the gulf choking our flow a little, so maybe a slight reduction in total liquid. But yeah, charlotte towards boone has been written in stone for daya now.
 
At first, I thought that accumulation map from AshevilleWx was a watch, warning, advisory product. It's a nice map, but it is over done for some, especially west of ATL and eastern TN.
 
Robert West said:
At this point, I don't really understand what is inconsistent with the models? I mean, there is a little wobbling. But for places in the triad and mountains and even into charlotte, it's been very consistent it seems. Has showed over 6 inches of frozen whatever for charlotte for like 3-4 days now.
Click to expand...

Yep. It’s IMBY stuff...the Euro has been pretty solid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WxWatch said:
At first, I thought that accumulation map from AshevilleWx was a watch, warning, advisory product. It's a nice map, but it is over done for some, especially west of ATL and eastern TN.
Click to expand...

They’re probably counting in the trailing wave as well
 
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