• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

GFS, UK, and FV3 all look awesome for most of NC, especially Wake westward.
 
FFC:
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The main concern for the long term period continues to be the
potential for a winter mix of precipitation across portions
of the forecast area this coming weekend into Tuesday morning.

The GFS and European are similar with developing low pressure
along the Gulf Coast and moving it across S GA on Sunday and then
into the Atlantic thereafter with the GFS being a little faster.

Deep moisture is forecast to move over the area Friday night and
Saturday with a rather strong surface ridge of high pressure
developing down the eastern Appalachians providing a strong
overrunning flow. The question will be is how cold the airmass
will be through Sunday over the far ne, especially the mountains.
For the most part, a cold rain can be expected. However a period
of a winter mix is possible of mainly sleet, possibly snow, and
this will depend greatly on how cold the airmass is over the NE
counties. Confidence is low for significant accumulations of sleet
but you can NOT rule it out and it will be a watch and monitor of
future model runs to see how this system might develop.

The associated upper system moves to the area Sunday night into
Monday night giving potential for a Rain/Snow shower mix.
At this time, any precipitation amounts with the upper system
are expected to be light.
 
Never underestimate the wedge in NE GA. I don't see the city of ATL getting much of anything but as always Gwinnett, Forsyth, etc tend to hold on to the cold air longer.
 
prec.thumb.png.3e923ff936dd3159c5b1e8cdaccc088a.png
 
Snowfan said:
FFC:
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The main concern for the long term period continues to be the
potential for a winter mix of precipitation across portions
of the forecast area this coming weekend into Tuesday morning.

The GFS and European are similar with developing low pressure
along the Gulf Coast and moving it across S GA on Sunday and then
into the Atlantic thereafter with the GFS being a little faster.

Deep moisture is forecast to move over the area Friday night and
Saturday with a rather strong surface ridge of high pressure
developing down the eastern Appalachians providing a strong
overrunning flow. The question will be is how cold the airmass
will be through Sunday over the far ne, especially the mountains.
For the most part, a cold rain can be expected. However a period
of a winter mix is possible of mainly sleet, possibly snow, and
this will depend greatly on how cold the airmass is over the NE
counties. Confidence is low for significant accumulations of sleet
but you can NOT rule it out and it will be a watch and monitor of
future model runs to see how this system might develop.

The associated upper system moves to the area Sunday night into
Monday night giving potential for a Rain/Snow shower mix.
At this time, any precipitation amounts with the upper system
are expected to be light.
Click to expand...
A very wise route for them to be taking. Many possibilities still on the table.

With that said, this might sound foolish, but I think the FV3 is onto something. No, the clown map in GA isn't going to be realistic, but the setup for CAD and consistency compared to the other models is something to watch as we head into the storm. It hasn't deviated much and instead of swinging up and down to get slightly colder like the other models have, it's gradually adjusted.
 
I think clt is the same, maybe a better chance for longer snow since that is typical with front snow thumps, but I think clt has a better chance of a sleetstorm than rah due to clt being closer to the cad
 
Sure is nice to see the totals today actually be consistent or increase on most of the model runs instead of the other way around. Looks like most have anywhere from 6 to 12 inches across Wake.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top