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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Looks like the ice is worse as you go from Raleigh to Charlotte. Maybe the snow up this way will be more then.
 
NAM continuing to show a significant threat from all p-types. I'm going to my parents house in Greensboro, which is right on the SN/IP line, which probably means there will actually be a ton of IP when the warm nose roars in1544400000 (2).png 1544400000 (1).png 1544400000.png . Might be the most I've ever seen there since I moved here in 2003
 
The NWS in Tennessee has more confidence at seeing snow for my area then I do. I really am not excepting any accumulation but according to this I could.

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cg2916 said:
Do ZR maps usually verify well or are they usually inflated like snowfall maps?
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They are almost always overestimated. They assume a 1:1 ratio of QPF to ice, and that almost never happens, even under ideal conditions. In this setup..with heavy precip rates (resulting in runoff) and marginal temps (upper 20s to low 30s, everything is not going to freeze on contact), I'd probably 1/3 to 1/4 some of those maps
 
Looks like around 4 inches of snow with ice on top is a safe bet around my way.

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FamouslyHot said:
Pretty serious ice threat on the NAM
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It's really going to depend on how dry the air is and how much of a continued inflow of dry air there is during the precip (to aid in evaporative cooling to keep the temp below freezing). Really going to have to watch the obs to find this out
 
scroback said:
They are almost always overestimated. They assume a 1:1 ratio of QPF to ice, and that almost never happens, even under ideal conditions. In this setup..with heavy precip rates (resulting in runoff) and marginal temps (upper 20s to low 30s, everything is not going to freeze on contact), I'd probably 1/3 to 1/4 some of those maps
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Also, arent temps going to be kind of marginal for ice, like in the low 30s ? Or is this a situation where it will be 25 and ice?
 
High 53 now in chapel hill and cloud deck thickening to blanket this warm area in. Surface temps are going to be marginal, hopefully we can get them down to where accumulations can be made early near the onset.
 
There might be Thundersnow/thundersleet in these convective bands, those rates are going to be insane
 

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The hrrr has a horrible warm bias with CADs and is normally just a warmer model in general until you get close the event/hour
 
Some of the SREF members (that are heavily based on the NAM parameters for the most part) have been alluding to this mixed mess, even to the North lately.

Charlotte looks like a major forecast headache, tbh.
 
ice will be limited due to heavy rates...and for locations who manage closer to 28 degrees not 32. Also sleet can cut down totals. I would prepare but widespread heavy icing rarely happens and this setup doesn’t support it in my opinion only thank you hello cold rain
 
Shawn said:
Some of the SREF members (that are heavily based on the NAM parameters for the most part) have been alluding to this mixed mess, even to the North lately.
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Shawn based off the WRF models which is what the RPM is based off which is a very good model is showing maybe some ice in Central Midlands (Columbia). Do you think it’s possible?
 
GSP popping on the WSWarning! 2-6” of snow and sleet. Enough ZR to cause a lot of tree damage and power outages!
 
Longtime lurker . I am wondering does anyone think Georgia( especially metro ATL) is still in play ?
We all know a lot of things can happen run. There was a vast change in the models from Sunday to Wednesday. It went from a board wide winter storm to mainly a WNC,NE GA, and Upstate South Carolina storm.

With 48-72 hours left to the storm is there a legitimate chance that accumulating snow could occur in places to the south like metro Atlanta for instance ?

The Temps in the cold rain, ZR and sleet areas are borderline.

Something like this has happened before. I remember January 2014 the models only picked up on a wintry event for mby 2 days before .
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Shawn based off the WRF models which is what the RPM is based off which is a very good model is showing maybe some ice in Central Midlands (Columbia). Do you think it’s possible?
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THE RPM model is based off an extremely customized WRF-ARW by WSI Inc. They run a lot of the local news systems and own the Weather Channel. It's a hit or miss model, basically.

It's used a lot in our "Futurecast" products if not the HRRR.
 
.WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OXFORD, DURHAM, PITTSBORO AND TROY. IN ADDITION, FREEZING
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND, TO A LITTLE MORE THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH, ARE POSSIBLE.

* WHERE...THE NORTHERN, EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE.

* WHEN...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DIFFICULT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN IN LOCATIONS WITH LESSER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR NORTH CAROLINA CAN BE FOUND ONLINE
AT DRIVENC.GOV.
 
Arjen Robben said:
Longtime lurker . I am wondering does anyone think Georgia( especially metro ATL) is still in play ?
We all know a lot of things can happen run. There was a vast change in the models from Sunday to Wednesday. It went from a board wide winter storm to mainly a WNC,NE GA, and Upstate South Carolina storm.

With 48-72 hours left to the storm is there a legitimate chance that accumulating snow could occur in places to the south like metro Atlanta for instance ?

The Temps in the cold rain, ZR and sleet areas are borderline.

Something like this has happened before. I remember January 2014 the models only picked up on a wintry event for mby 2 days before .
Click to expand...

None of the models save the WRF really support anything frozen ITP. I’d say if you’re up in Cumming or Gainesville, ZR is a real possibility. Otherwise, you would be lucky to catch a flake mixing in. The problem is two-fold. No good arctic airmass and dwindling precip rates with the ULL.


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Tarheel1 said:
This guy on Fox Carolinas!! What a bafoon! Jimmy don’t watch! He has us in flakes/to a trace on his map!could be right, but I mean does he not see the WSW!?
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He’s ignoring it. I know Chris justice is calling for 1-4 inches mostly sleet
 
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