Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm sure the FV3 on TT is going to be printing out a clown map within the next hour...

(that we realistically know is not right, even though the FV3 still has pretty stupid numbers when you go to pivotal)

 

[mrdaddyman]

Forgive my ignorance ILM?

Wilmington, NC

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like GFS has 3 to 9 across Wake from SE to NW.

 

[scroback]

The GFS isnt good in CAD situations is it?

It's not the best with CAD, but really fails at representing the diabatic processes that occur with precip during a CAD

 

[Kylo]

CMC, further south than its 12z run.

 

[NCSNOW]

Same here. 0z gfs was basically all snow for our area.

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Ditto on the ots verse coastal hugger.. i have more wiggle room than you guys, but getting giddy after sitting in 12 + totals on every model run for days. Sunday can't get here fast enough.

 

[EV/WS]

The #deadtome movement for the gfs is gonna be epic


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#GFSDEADTOME. 12 day sweatshirt giveaway?

 

[Snowluvr]

So are these latest models showing ATL getting freezing rain way out there? I've seen no mention of it from local Mets or NWS.

 

[accu35]

Lol CMC backside

 

[ForsythSnow]

#GFSDEADTOME. 12 day sweatshirt giveaway?

Sounds like a new shirt we should make.

 

[Rain Cold]

When do we get to talk about the meso-high?

 

[WxWatch]

Well, I don't know what's wrong with the 0z GFS op. But, it's simulated radar is doing better, and it's probably more accurate.

 

[Tarheel1]

If the GFSv3 comes in warm and North or same as old GFS, do we toss both?

 

[Rain Cold]

If the GFSv3 comes in warm and North or same as old GFS, do we toss both?

Toss warm models at your own risk!

 

[JLL1973]

Not only am I riding the nam but I'm riding the cmc also.

 

[RollTide18]

Lol CMC backside

I’ll take it at this point, the NAM may look like that in a few days

 

[Tarheel1]

When do we get to talk about the meso-high?

Right after the “ there’s gotta be more precip further west, with the strength of that low” talk!

 

[crecre9]

ICE STORM ALERT for ATL.

Oh that is getting so close for N AL.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

If the GFSv3 comes in warm and North or same as old GFS, do we toss both?

Toss or approach cliff!

 

[accu35]

 

[drfranklin]

Toss warm models at your own risk!

never toss a hot model - always blend!

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Well, I don't know what's wrong with the 0z GFS op. But, it's simulated radar is doing better, and it's probably more accurate.

People were saying earlier to be careful using this, because it's soundings are wrong.

The problem I'm picking up is the GFS likely just isn't seeing the CAD well. The NAM might be too wild but I'm seeing enough in the short range models to say the GFS probably isn't doing well on CAD again.

 

[Rain Cold]

One more jump down and we in bidness!

 

[TheBatman]

I love it when Brad Travis says ground temps are too warm right now for significant accumulation Sunday Night and Monday.
Kinda funny past 2 nights we have lows at 24 degrees and highs of about 38. Hilarious.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian looks good, eh?

 

[Fountainguy97]

People were saying earlier to be careful using this, because it's soundings are wrong.

The problem I'm picking up is the GFS likely just isn't seeing the CAD well. The NAM might be too wild but I'm seeing enough in the short range models to say the GFS probably isn't doing well on CAD again.

That map lines up perfect with the gfs soundings from what I’ve seen

 

[WxWatch]

On a good note, my local NWS is putting a 50% chance of snow into the grids! What about your local NWS?

 

[ForsythSnow]

I love it when Brad Travis says ground temps are too warm right now for significant accumulation Sunday Night and Monday.
Kinda funny past 2 nights we have lows at 24 degrees and highs of about 38. Hilarious.

Lol not that argument. We are going bitter across the SE tonight and that'll freeze the ground.

 

[Shawn]

That map lines up perfect with the gfs soundings from what I’ve seen

Not so much in the deep South with the front end.

 

[Philstorm91]

GFS V3 has just initialized

 

[Jessy89]

Does the fv3 pick up on cad better?

 

[Snowmageddon]

i got 40% chance of rain and snow for Sunday night in mcdonough, ga

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol my nws is already calling for 8-12 with 100% chance of snow/sleet

 

[WxWatch]

People were saying earlier to be careful using this, because it's soundings are wrong.

The problem I'm picking up is the GFS likely just isn't seeing the CAD well. The NAM might be too wild but I'm seeing enough in the short range models to say the GFS probably isn't doing well on CAD again.

Yeah, I'm not so sure, the start of it looks like the NAM with the placement of frozen precip.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Does the fv3 pick up on cad better?

It’s the upgraded gfs. It’s verification has rivaled EURO in some instances. And it’s much closer to the NAM than gfs.

The only models that matter to me now are NAM, FV3 GFS And ERUO. If these three agree it’s a strong sign

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don't forget the Ukie, pretty solid model

 

[deltadog03]

The GFS is dead to me . I’m riding the NAM into Tennessee for glory


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Gfs looks a bit clueless on thermals. ULL looked much better. Lol

 

[JLL1973]

Memphis had upped their wording in their evening discussion. I'm sure it is mainly for our northern most counties

 

[Round Oak Weather]

That NAM run just dropped freezing rain 10 miles from my house. This ones got me worried now

 

[SoutheastRidge]

NWS has rain/snow for Sun night all the way to the GA/AL border !