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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

ColaSnow said:
Agree with your first quote.

Re: your latter quote.... Isn't this timeframe considered to be the NAM's wheelhouse?
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Yes once we get in the range of the NAM we can have a better idea of the CAD setup. What I was pointing out is that while the NAM is more reliable from a temp standpoint, it overestimates moisture. Another poster corrected and said that the NAM received an upgrade to correct this bias.


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Snowflowxxl said:
GFS is warmer btw. I dont think it has a clue how with the CAD, and also my wishcasting self will punt it.
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It's out the door for me in terms if temps. It quite honestly sucks and is why it's being replaced. Rooting for the FV3 to verify so it can kill the GFS with honor and be a good model replacing a garbage one.
 
For some reason the GFS had 3 highs and after hour 60 the HP that would be in good position to pump in CAD disappears on this run. Doesn't just dissipate, disappears.

The LP does seem a "tick" north though.
 
Gfs is so much warmer vs the NAM
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#deadtome


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Gfs was a little weaker and slower with the building in of the wedge on the southern and eastern zones are more rain. As a whole though this run isn't that much different than 18z

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Yes, the GFS doesn't handle CAD well, but we need to get closer with the NAM.

Nonetheless, there's enough signal that I'd be worried about ice from the NE ATL suburbs and up in Georgia.

(btw: This is still a good run for NC)
 
SD said:
Gfs was a little weaker and slower with the building in of the wedge on the southern and eastern zones are more rain. As a whole though this run isn't that much different than 18z

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I'm liking this idea of the low staying further out rather than tucked in by ILM. Very Ukmet like
 
Lol, CMC has the low even further south than gfs. To me throw the globles out the window at this range. Short range models are coming soon.
 
Just posted on the other board about sampling...it does not make a difference and there is research to prove it.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00309.1

"Forecast impacts were generally neutral and thus smaller than reported in previous studies, most from over a decade ago, perhaps because of the improved forecast and assimilation system and the somewhat denser observation network."
 
CJ must not have seen the new model runs! Saying S of 85 and NEGa, will be mostly rain, maybe a little snow on back end! Drugs are bad!
 
I think the forecast high temperatures for central NC on Sunday are too high. I don't see it reaching 40 degrees unless it is a total bust. 34-36 seems much more reasonable
 
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