Pattern Dazzling December

[Webberweather53]

If we only had a big lake to our NW for that cold wind to blow across lol. Waiting on a Mega Frost last night to melt off so we can build a handicap ramp for someone today. Hopefully my man FRO and Grit are posting today and find me some snow over the hollidays. Fro You still high on a storm # 2 chance right after Christmas. I know Webb is. Appreciate yalls high quality post on here.

Edit. Thought I was in banter, oops

There could certainly be some snow showers over some of the local lakes around here & perhaps even the sounds over eastern NC, given enough of a fetch. You typically want 850mb temps of at least -8 to -10C over unfrozen lakes in order to create enough absolute instability in the low levels to have any shot at this. Definitely the kind of cold shot where I think a few places could see it. Downstream of Lake Kerr & Lake Gaston in the northern Piedmont & coastal plain of NC (including @metwannabe) maybe even the Pamlico + Albemarle sounds out east

 

[SimeonNC]

There could certainly be some snow showers over some of the local lakes around here & perhaps even the sounds over eastern NC, given enough of a fetch. You typically want 850mb temps of at least -8 to -10C over unfrozen lakes in order to create enough absolute instability in the low levels to have any shot at this. Definitely the kind of cold shot where I think a few places could see it. Downstream of Lake Kerr & Lake Gaston in the northern Piedmont & coastal plain of NC (including @metwannabe) maybe even the Pamlico + Albemarle sounds out east

What's your opinion on the post I made about the possibility of snow showers breaking containment? That along with possible snow squalls in the MA/NE.

I have a good feeling about it but you're way more educated so I wanna know what you think.

 

[BullCityWx]

There could certainly be some snow showers over some of the local lakes around here & perhaps even the sounds over eastern NC, given enough of a fetch. You typically want 850mb temps of at least -8 to -10C over unfrozen lakes in order to create enough absolute instability in the low levels to have any shot at this. Definitely the kind of cold shot where I think a few places could see it. Downstream of Lake Kerr & Lake Gaston in the northern Piedmont & coastal plain of NC (including @metwannabe) maybe even the Pamlico + Albemarle sounds out east

One thing I’ve wondered is if some of the obx might be able to squeeze out a trace or couple tenths of snow from sound effect if we get sufficiently cold + strong enough winds.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m kinda liking the idea of a few snow showers breaking containment with the big system. Non accumulating outside the mountains but there’s certainly a argument for some given we’re throwing a whole TPV towards our area

 

[Webberweather53]

What's your opinion on the post I made about the possibility of snow showers breaking containment? That along with possible snow squalls in the MA/NE.

I have a good feeling about it but you're way more educated so I wanna know what you think.

This may be more of a case where remnant moisture via leftover remnants of snow showers from the Great Lakes combine with local moisture over warm lakes & is just enough to squeeze out some flurries in some locales.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t know if we do it, but the closer we have the cutoff/TPV near by, the better chance of backside flurries/snow showers, or another vort rounding the closed low/TPV

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

One positive thing.... there will be changes and we have not seen the final solution yet. At this point, it's all about the model trends leading up to Christmas. In my opinion, ensembles are still the way to go until we get into the 72hr timeframe.

 

[Webberweather53]

A modest change in the same direction that we’ve gone late this week is all it would take to cause a massive stir on social media for the next system near Christmas

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I see the 6Z GFS basically stuck to its guns. The trough just didn't dig quite as far south but in no way is the look a cave to the EMCF.

 

[SimeonNC]

There could certainly be some snow showers over some of the local lakes around here & perhaps even the sounds over eastern NC, given enough of a fetch. You typically want 850mb temps of at least -8 to -10C over unfrozen lakes in order to create enough absolute instability in the low levels to have any shot at this. Definitely the kind of cold shot where I think a few places could see it. Downstream of Lake Kerr & Lake Gaston in the northern Piedmont & coastal plain of NC (including @metwannabe) maybe even the Pamlico + Albemarle sounds out east

 

[rburrel2]

Snow showers from the flow over lake Marion/moultrie in South Carolina are very likely imo. It’s happened before. And the angle of the flow is perfect for maximizing length of both lakes.

 

[SimeonNC]

Lake Effect snow seems like a legit possibility over parts of NC with the strong winds and the cold temps aloft

 

[BullCityWx]

None of these images look bitterly cold, but they don't scream warm mild Pacific flow either. The EPS is probably the least favorable, but there's no guarantee that exact solution is going to be correct

View attachment 127257View attachment 127258View attachment 127259

I thought @Webberweather53 made a great point about this on Twitter this morning:

 

[rburrel2]

It’s a shame we aren’t getting a little more moisture with this Tuesday morning system. Everything is prime for a solid front end thump if the precip shield makes it here Monday night and drops a few tenths of liquid. (For NE Ga, upstate SC, SW NC). I haven’t given up yet. 06z NAM looked super juicy but fizzled fast. Still drops a coating of snow in north Georgia though.

 

[Rain Cold]

I thought @Webberweather53 made a great point about this on Twitter this morning:

Yep I read that. I just don't see it being strongly modeled at this time over the next two weeks.

 

[cyclogent]

6z NAM checking in...

 

[ForsythSnow]

6z NAM checking in...

View attachment 127270

View attachment 127271

View attachment 127272

ATL NAM'd. I guarantee that this won't be a very likely scenario but it'd be cool if it did happen.

 

[BullCityWx]

Yep I read that. I just don't see it being strongly modeled at this time over the next two weeks.

My hope is it’s a relaxation and not a breakdown. It just feels like we’re in the opposite situation as last year where we might be struggling for part of our prime climo.

 

[Rain Cold]

My hope is it’s a relaxation and not a breakdown. It just feels like we’re in the opposite situation as last year where we might be struggling for part of our prime climo.

Maybe. It's hard to know how things will shake out. But it's encouraging that we are off to a better than usual start and that the strat is not wound up super tight. That makes me think we may not stay locked into a warm pattern for long.