Pattern Dazzling December

[iGRXY]

GEFS holding serve with the OP of extended a piece of the TPV out ahead

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I guess the upgrade really did improve the GFS

 

[iGRXY]

Very juiced

 

[NCSNOW]

Ukmet aint budged. To be fair GFS has pretty much held its ground. Thought it was gonna fold finally after 18z. But it recruited icon and stood firm. Interested if Gefs stands with it still

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The GFS is supported by its ensemble.

 

[SD]

Ukmet aint budged. To be fair GFS has pretty much held its ground. Thought it was gonna fold finally after 18z. But it recruited icon and stood firm. Interested if Gefs stands with it still

Honestly the way the icon gets to what it had is different than how the gfs got there.

 

[bouncycorn]

Wow! Big time change by the Icon. A bit surprised by the gfs shifting back SE and the icon making a massive capitulation to the GFS. Just goes to show that we’re still a long way out and anything can happen.

 

[iGRXY]

GEFS has multiple members with snow

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Old chool arctic front. As good as you’ll ever see. Snow or no snow, I’m here for this. These are few and far between.

 

[iGRXY]

Energy for wave 2 is more consolidated and stronger so far as well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

UKMET looks like the CMC

 

[iGRXY]

More HP, stronger storm to become our 50/50 confluence. 850’s are colder

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

0z GEFS at hr 162

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[goon]

0z GEFS at hr 162

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Hate the be the bearer of bad new but member 7 and member 11 are the most likely right now. Could change but right now it’s more like a Great Lakes ohio valley storm. Models almost always correct northwest over time. Seen it to many times.

 

[Arcc]

UKMET looks like the CMC View attachment 127227

Interesting changes in Canada though from 12z to 0z.

 

[Webberweather53]

The GFS & GEFS are probably are going to be wrong/too progressive here. How poorly these models handle cold air sneaking over the Rocky Mountains is closely linked to how the trough downstream evolves. The GFS is notoriously bad with underestimating how shallow cold air masses move across the Rocky Mountains, including here in New Mexico. The ECMWF does a much better job w/ this on average, and it causes the trough axis to drag/slow.

 

[goon]

The GFS & GEFS are probably are going to be wrong/too progressive here. How poorly these models handle cold air sneaking over the Rocky Mountains is closely linked to how the trough downstream evolves. The GFS is notoriously bad with underestimating how shallow cold air masses move across the Rocky Mountains, including here in New Mexico. The ECMWF does a much better job w/ this on average, and it causes the trough axis to drag/slow.

Doesn’t that mean a cutter basically?

 

[Snowfan]

Doesn’t that mean a cutter basically?

Yep

 

[goon]

Yep

Like I said if your in Ohio valley and Great Lakes then your in good shape right now. Models always correct northwest and the 500mb analogs show a Colorado low cutting up the spine of the apps. I could be wrong but it just seems like that’s the case. Indiana Illinois Ohio Kentucky Michigan storm into western ny and pa if it’s a cutter.

 

[WeatherNC]

The GFS & GEFS are probably are going to be wrong/too progressive here. How poorly these models handle cold air sneaking over the Rocky Mountains is closely linked to how the trough downstream evolves. The GFS is notoriously bad with underestimating how shallow cold air masses move across the Rocky Mountains, including here in New Mexico. The ECMWF does a much better job w/ this on average, and it causes the trough axis to drag/slow.

I'm wholesale for a major cyclone splitting the difference at day 5-6, beyond the sniff test. Probably west but in chase mode, it's a honey badger for sure.