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Pattern Dazzling December

I've combed through everything, even 6z. The Cold is coming and staying, no doubt. We've got that covered.
The problem is we are bone dry now. Gonna take a rabbit out of the hat to get some moisture in my neck of the woods. Surprisingly even the NW flow/upslope snow looks anemic. Only silver lining is its Dec 14. So a lot can and will change. I just don't see the always advertised
-NAO helping slow the flow down Mantra helping here at the moment on the models this morning. Can't ask for better sustained Cold top down than what's gonna be on tap the week going into and after Christmas day.
 
NCSNOW said:
I've combed through everything, even 6z. The Cold is coming and staying, no doubt. We've got that covered.
The problem is we are bone dry now. Gonna take a rabbit out of the hat to get some moisture in my neck of the woods. Surprisingly even the NW flow/upslope snow looks anemic. Only silver lining is its Dec 14. So a lot can and will change. I just don't see the always advertised
-NAO helping slow the flow down Mantra helping here at the moment on the models this morning. Can't ask for better sustained Cold top down than what's gonna be on tap the week going into and after Christmas day.
Click to expand...
As somebody talked about yesterday, we may be hoping for a clipper type system. I think our chances are decent with the upcoming pattern. They are hard to depict on the long-range global models. This would be something that pops up (on short-range models) within three or so days of the possible event.
 
Does this kind of pattern favor those long track winter storms that start getting their act together out in Texas? Or will we likely not see one of those with this.
 
NCSNOW said:
I've combed through everything, even 6z. The Cold is coming and staying, no doubt. We've got that covered.
The problem is we are bone dry now. Gonna take a rabbit out of the hat to get some moisture in my neck of the woods. Surprisingly even the NW flow/upslope snow looks anemic. Only silver lining is its Dec 14. So a lot can and will change. I just don't see the always advertised
-NAO helping slow the flow down Mantra helping here at the moment on the models this morning. Can't ask for better sustained Cold top down than what's gonna be on tap the week going into and after Christmas day.
Click to expand...
This is the EPS 5-day mean for days 8-13. We do have a -NAO here, but it's a weak one. It's hard to get these to setup just right, but the big missing piece to make it better is what I've added to the map of a big blue anomaly off the NE Coast. That's the key piece for making the -NAO rock.

The good news is that we made 2 good moves with the modeling overnight. 1 - the Euro went away from the western trough dump, and 2 - the cold air that plunges down isn't digging sharply into TX....rather, it is sweeping more west to east thru the Ohio Valley. We have overall weakness in the polar regions (-AO / -NAO), so if we could get a low pressure to bomb slowly off the NE Coast (a more plausible scenario given the overnight look), that would help more with slowing down the flow behind it and increase the wintry chances. Even without that, the look is no doubt better than normal

xNhTJ5e.png
 
Nothing too much to add that hasn't already been said, but I am happy to see improvement in the models overnight. It looks like they have predominantly stepped away from an active pattern. However, I always say let's check the cold box first. And the prospects of that certainly seem solid at this point.

Storms can pop at any time, and a suppressed flow, especially out in time is more preferable to me than a D10 blizzard over the SE.

It looks like the signal for blocking in the Arctic fades out in time, but the ensembles, which continue to be fairly steady, seem to hint at continued ridging up into AK, with a broad US trough.

This is why you don't abandon the Ensembles because of a couple of bad operational runs!!! ?

eps_z500_mslp_nhem_61.png

At the very least, it should feel like Christmas should feel and the Fireplace index should remain very high over the next two weeks or so.
 
Interesting disco from FFC this morning re: the Mon / Tue system ?

At this point, model
disagreement increases Monday and Tuesday with respect to the
progression of the high pressure system. Two modes seem to be
possible. One, the sfc high moves northeast while the western side
erodes. This allows for warmer moist air to move northward across
north and central GA. Two, the sfc high stays broad while moving
northeast. This means colder dry air remains entrenched across the
region and no precipitation occurs. These two solutions are an issue
for the NBM, as this places PoPs (from warmer solutions) over
freezing temperatures (from colder solutions). Because of this, will
be conservative with wintry precipitation coverage to match
temperatures, with the understanding that any precipitation is more
likely liquid only.

SM
 
34 this morning, DRY as a bone here on Da Coast..

Lotsa FROST though, (does that count?)..

Our Local NWS on the long range hasn't 'mentioned" anything yet in the Long Range.. YET; It looks as if they are (holding back)?

I've looked at the DISCO here & long range on the GFS etc..
Either Big Dog or Bust..
Suppressed or warm nose & or cold AF rain..
TBH, Token flakes would be nice.. :rolleyes:
excuse me does this go in the WAMBY thread?
>current conditions..<
54/34
Pressure 30.21 in
Visibility clear as a bell
Clouds none
Dew Point 34 F
Humidity 80 %
water temp 57 F or so, Mullet/Puffer/Trout/Black Drum/Red fish bite is HOT! HOT!

AND BLUE Fin Tuna!
 

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I'm not worried about suppression right now. Keep it that way. We have an active southern jet and very easily can get pulses to eject out of the west. Could get LP forming and riding on these stalled fronts after they pass. A lot of ways to get moisture into the area. You absolutely want cold first and worry about the rest later.
 
FallsLake said:
As somebody talked about yesterday, we may be hoping for a clipper type system. I think our chances are decent with the upcoming pattern. They are hard to depict on the long-range global models. This would be something that pops up (on short-range models) within three or so days of the possible event.
Click to expand...
Yea , Kinda what I started looking for. I figured with NW wind mtns, east Tn would have plenty of pixel dust blowing around.

Anxious to see Grits Black line on his 100 ensemble chart today. See how much decrease, if any from yesterday. We still got time and a pretty big window of sustained Cold to work with. We all harp get it cold here and we will figure out the rest.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nothing too much to add that hasn't already been said, but I am happy to see improvement in the models overnight. It looks like they have predominantly stepped away from an active pattern. However, I always say let's check the cold box first. And the prospects of that certainly seem solid at this point.

Storms can pop at any time, and a suppressed flow, especially out in time is more preferable to me than a D10 blizzard over the SE.

It looks like the signal for blocking in the Arctic fades out in time, but the ensembles, which continue to be fairly steady, seem to hint at continued ridging up into AK, with a broad US trough.

This is why you don't abandon the Ensembles because of a couple of bad operational runs!
Click to expand...
I want Complain and Take the pattern we have the last 15 days of December coming up, followed by ridging up in Alaska for January. Hard to ask for much more than that.
 
NCSNOW said:
I've combed through everything, even 6z. The Cold is coming and staying, no doubt. We've got that covered.
The problem is we are bone dry now. Gonna take a rabbit out of the hat to get some moisture in my neck of the woods. Surprisingly even the NW flow/upslope snow looks anemic. Only silver lining is its Dec 14. So a lot can and will change. I just don't see the always advertised
-NAO helping slow the flow down Mantra helping here at the moment on the models this morning. Can't ask for better sustained Cold top down than what's gonna be on tap the week going into and after Christmas day.
Click to expand...

We've kind of reverted to last January with a great Pacific, the Atlantic really not helping us out, and things staying too progressive. Lol. We started the month a couple weeks ago thinking the opposite, then thinking we'd have both, now back to the pacific.

Like grit said maybe we can get the NE a bomb to complete a true -NAO, and go from there. Hate to see the modeling dry up though.
 
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