Bet there’s gonna be some big members 
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Hopefully CMCE progresses like it’s OP, the CMC itself really got us cold 
Looks like the cmc ensemble is gonna progress like it’s op, absolutely insane ridge in the Arctic 
Looks like we’re seeing a new trend on models, this is a winning trend 
It’ll be interesting if the Euro goes to the winning trend.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Quite the reduction in the 00z GEFS mean snowfall from the previous few runs.
Lots of dry suppressed members it appears
Yep, lot less hits, but the hits that happened were good 
The 00z GEFS really only supports the northeast. We need to see more trends in the digging and a more positive PNA before we have a real shot at snow.
I think we still have a real shot at snow .. I certainly am not expecting a super high snow mean until models really figure things out .. I think the fact that it did have some decent storms is pretty solid at this range .. wouldn’t expect all of them to see a storm 270 hours out .. you know how these southern storms like to trend randomly inside 200 hours but the pattern overall can produce so that’s a good thing
Euro taking the same exact change as the Canadian model/ensemble, so it’s definitely better 
Huge huge huge improvement, flow is sped up in pacific so this thing is moving east
Old run
New
Old run
New
Holy ---- 
We got a long way to go with this thing in terms of knowing what we’re actually going to be dealing with.. if we’re dealing we these drastic changes run to run .. gotta stick with ensembles cause this pattern is all over the place
Interesting that the cold doesn’t seem to be diving that far south .. at least the serious cold.. but look at this blocking over top.. things about to hit a wall I presume and then that’s when fun could happen 
I kind of like this slow zonal drip of cold .. leaves more room for storms to go around the periphery 
I think euro will continue to trend that ridge out west stronger given time and line up more with other models .. it’s bias of keeping energy held back has really hurt it with this pattern.
EPS way better to end it off 
That is a 573dm ridge over the arctic at hr216…. It’s way off the scale sigma values. Honestly, the Euro is probably having trouble resolving what to do underneath it.