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Pattern Dazzling December

This is a pretty realistic depiction of how I'd expect this storm's snow footprint to go down. Outside of the mountains & foothills, I wouldn't expect anything more than some backside token flakes or maybe a light coating at the very most. If you want a good storm, you'll have to at least go to the Apps or into the interior NE US.

It's the kind of storm we need (& I figured several days ago that we'd see) to set the table for the potential window just after Christmas.

To get a good winter storm for the board, we usually need a good snow pack down to at least the I-70 corridor & we'll have that after Dec 23.

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Hopefully, we make the most of our opportunity just after Christmas, because odds are the continent will be flooded w/ mild, Pacific air thereafter as we approach the New Year (although I think the EPS is overkill here), so cold air availability will become more of an issue in general as we approach the start of 2023. That doesn't mean we can't get winter storms, but we'll likely encounter even more marginal setups, because w/ the big Aleutian trough, more modest/stale continental polar air masses will be the only thing available to us to make something happen.

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New MMFS run is coming in.. it's trying to give some light wintry precip to the mountains on Tuesday morning before changing over to rain completely.

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More of the same from the ECMWF.. at this point we have ECMWF/CMC/UKMET vs GFS/ICON/MMFS, with both sides sticking to their guns for the most part. Should be interesting, still a lot of uncertainty but if I had to bet I would bet GFS' crew will eventually capitulate to the others.

In fact, the MMFS and ICON are incredibly similar at 120 hrs. GFS is out on it's own.. ECMWF/CMC/UKMET are similar to one another.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS & GEFS are probably are going to be wrong/too progressive here. How poorly these models handle cold air sneaking over the Rocky Mountains is closely linked to how the trough downstream evolves. The GFS is notoriously bad with underestimating how shallow cold air masses move across the Rocky Mountains, including here in New Mexico. The ECMWF does a much better job w/ this on average, and it causes the trough axis to drag/slow.
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I made this visualization to help explain how this effect actually works and why it's causing the models (esp GFS) to trend to westward w/ the trough over the Rockies next week & ultimately, the storm on the 22nd-23rd. These really deep & cold arctic outbreaks into the northern Rockies have a tendency to do this.

 
Meteorologist1999 said:
FWIW 6z Gfs looks a lot better for system on 25th and 26th light snow in Atlanta this run. Maybe it would start to catch on and pick up in future runs.
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It's a start from a "Precip on the map" stand point. Definitely need that energy to dig more.

To me, unless something pops up (which it definitely could) for us in the unfavorable areas to score, we have to hope that the 26th-27th works out. It's 8-9 almost 10 days out. But we have about a 5 day window to score i would think. I would REALLY like to see the Euro bite on that second storm at some point this weekend. 00z Icon looks like it was heading for something at the end of the run (Christmas eve) also. Would be incredible if somehow everything sped up and that second system rolled in right on Christmas. But it's a miracle enough to actually get it to happen. Lol
 
None of these images look bitterly cold, but they don't scream warm mild Pacific flow either. The EPS is probably the least favorable, but there's no guarantee that exact solution is going to be correct

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Something I've noticed on the GFS and Euro is that both models have left-over moisture over parts of NC Friday morning-early afternoon. Things can and will change but I feel like if the timing of the system remains constant(which is unlikely), we could have a situation similar to Christmas 2020 where we had that arctic front which led to flurries and snow showers breaking containment.

In fact, the set up reminds me of those big cold fronts that lead a lot of places in the EC, specifically the MA having to deal with snow squalls. Something like that could happen down here but on a smaller scale. Any more educated poster feel free to prove me wrong on this.

Edit: See the current radar map over the NE, I have a feeling those snow showers could happen on a larger scale come Friday-Saturday.

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If we only had a big lake to our NW for that cold wind to blow across lol. Waiting on a Mega Frost last night to melt off so we can build a handicap ramp for someone today. Hopefully my man FRO and Grit are posting today and find me some snow over the hollidays. Fro You still high on a storm # 2 chance right after Christmas. I know Webb is. Appreciate yalls high quality post on here.

Edit. Thought I was in banter, oops
 
NCSNOW said:
If we only had a big lake to our NW for that cold wind to blow across lol. Waiting on a Mega Frost last night to melt off so we can build a handicap ramp for someone today. Hopefully my man FRO and Grit are posting today and find me some snow over the hollidays. Fro You still high on a storm # 2 chance right after Christmas. I know Webb is. Appreciate yalls high quality post on here.

Edit. Thought I was in banter, oops
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There could certainly be some snow showers over some of the local lakes around here & perhaps even the sounds over eastern NC, given enough of a fetch. You typically want 850mb temps of at least -8 to -10C over unfrozen lakes in order to create enough absolute instability in the low levels to have any shot at this. Definitely the kind of cold shot where I think a few places could see it. Downstream of Lake Kerr & Lake Gaston in the northern Piedmont & coastal plain of NC (including @metwannabe) maybe even the Pamlico + Albemarle sounds out east
 
Webberweather53 said:
There could certainly be some snow showers over some of the local lakes around here & perhaps even the sounds over eastern NC, given enough of a fetch. You typically want 850mb temps of at least -8 to -10C over unfrozen lakes in order to create enough absolute instability in the low levels to have any shot at this. Definitely the kind of cold shot where I think a few places could see it. Downstream of Lake Kerr & Lake Gaston in the northern Piedmont & coastal plain of NC (including @metwannabe) maybe even the Pamlico + Albemarle sounds out east
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What's your opinion on the post I made about the possibility of snow showers breaking containment? That along with possible snow squalls in the MA/NE.

I have a good feeling about it but you're way more educated so I wanna know what you think.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There could certainly be some snow showers over some of the local lakes around here & perhaps even the sounds over eastern NC, given enough of a fetch. You typically want 850mb temps of at least -8 to -10C over unfrozen lakes in order to create enough absolute instability in the low levels to have any shot at this. Definitely the kind of cold shot where I think a few places could see it. Downstream of Lake Kerr & Lake Gaston in the northern Piedmont & coastal plain of NC (including @metwannabe) maybe even the Pamlico + Albemarle sounds out east
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One thing I’ve wondered is if some of the obx might be able to squeeze out a trace or couple tenths of snow from sound effect if we get sufficiently cold + strong enough winds.
 
SimeonNC said:
What's your opinion on the post I made about the possibility of snow showers breaking containment? That along with possible snow squalls in the MA/NE.

I have a good feeling about it but you're way more educated so I wanna know what you think.
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This may be more of a case where remnant moisture via leftover remnants of snow showers from the Great Lakes combine with local moisture over warm lakes & is just enough to squeeze out some flurries in some locales.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There could certainly be some snow showers over some of the local lakes around here & perhaps even the sounds over eastern NC, given enough of a fetch. You typically want 850mb temps of at least -8 to -10C over unfrozen lakes in order to create enough absolute instability in the low levels to have any shot at this. Definitely the kind of cold shot where I think a few places could see it. Downstream of Lake Kerr & Lake Gaston in the northern Piedmont & coastal plain of NC (including @metwannabe) maybe even the Pamlico + Albemarle sounds out east
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It’s a shame we aren’t getting a little more moisture with this Tuesday morning system. Everything is prime for a solid front end thump if the precip shield makes it here Monday night and drops a few tenths of liquid. (For NE Ga, upstate SC, SW NC). I haven’t given up yet. 06z NAM looked super juicy but fizzled fast. Still drops a coating of snow in north Georgia though.Screen Shot 2022-12-17 at 9.22.37 AM.png
 
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Rain Cold said:
Yep I read that. I just don't see it being strongly modeled at this time over the next two weeks.
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My hope is it’s a relaxation and not a breakdown. It just feels like we’re in the opposite situation as last year where we might be struggling for part of our prime climo.
 
BullCityWx said:
My hope is it’s a relaxation and not a breakdown. It just feels like we’re in the opposite situation as last year where we might be struggling for part of our prime climo.
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Maybe. It's hard to know how things will shake out. But it's encouraging that we are off to a better than usual start and that the strat is not wound up super tight. That makes me think we may not stay locked into a warm pattern for long.
 
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