Ryno23
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
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LetItSnow
Member
Nobody has dismissed anything and the statistics to date warrant at least a cursory comparison to a rather bad flu season.I recommend everyone on here read this entire article top to bottom. Read it and take the time to at least understand what they are saying and then you can decide if you want to dismiss this or compare it to the flu.
Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago
Americans need to prepare themselves that the next 12 months are going to look very different.www.marketwatch.com
50k to 5m is a huge spread for potential deaths.
NoSnowATL
Member
Flu
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Shaggy
Member
Because the flu doesnt over run our HC system. Theres lots of sick people but there are treatments for it. Hospitals dont run 200% above capacity with the flu.
Windergawx
Member
Just announced all of Italy is red zone now. All of Italy under quarantine
just tellem to walk it off no snow atl
just tellem to walk it off no snow atl
My point is the media driven mass hysteria. Think of it like this, so many people listen to news while getting ready for work, chasing after children, looking at their social media, driving down the road, talking on the phone, you name it they listen with one ear, barely. They aren't analytical like you, they're not reading articles and researching data and I'm convinced most media outlets, especially cable news, knows this. So throw out possible 20% mortality rate phrases or have a Harvard prof say 90 million will be infected, or the country may go on lockdown, etc and that's all they hear, that's all they know. Next thing you know people freak out, go into survival mode, wipeout supplies and instant disaster. It's the hype and playing on people's fears that's creating more havoc then the virus itself as of now.
NoSnowATL
Member
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
True we have a vaccine for the flu but it's often ineffective for individuals. This year the effectiveness rate is b/w 50 -60% which is considered very good. Last year's estimate was just 29%. So, many flu deaths happen in people who had the vaccine anyway, especially seniors. Perhaps this virus will end up being as bad as the flu, or even worse, but it is at nowhere near the impact of even a light seasonal flu outbreak, at this time, and hopefully it won't get close. My post was mainly about the panic however. We have all this media madness and shutdowns and economic issues already and IMO it is way out of perspective. As I indicated, common sense, care, vigilence, and general precautions are important whether it is this virus, the flu, strep throat, or norovirus. But panic is never helpful to anyone, and almost always makes matters worse.
This isn't overrunning the healthcare in SK, Germany or France at its current pace either.
NoSnowATL
Member
Alright, let's say half of US population gets exposed to virus. Population is 331 million (est 2020), and 74% are adults (according to Google), giving adult population of about 245 million. Meaning 122.5 million infected.
If mortality rate is .5% of adult population (or 1 in 200), that would result in deaths of: 612,350 in the US.
*I'm not including children since (thankfully) they seem to be more resistant than most adults.
If mortality rate is .5% of adult population (or 1 in 200), that would result in deaths of: 612,350 in the US.
*I'm not including children since (thankfully) they seem to be more resistant than most adults.
Shaggy
Member
I can agree with a lot of that. The question then becomes is it hype if what the media is saying is rooted in evidence?
If it were across the board, then yes, but it's not and not even close. The death rate for 50 years and under outside of China is probably some where around 0.02% and 0.05% and steps up again as you go up. If people can wrap their heads around that and stop panicking, we can focus on those who really need medical attention, supplies and hospital beds. If it does become widespread in the US, we need to close down vistitors to NHs, retirement communities and hospitals. That may also mean not taking Timmy to see Grandma often and Grandpa may need to stay home instead of yapping at the local store.
Ryno23
Member
Well, we have felt free to do what we wanted for so long, a little inconvenience might feel like the state is rearing it's ugly head. Situations can call for "extreme" measures. Public health first and foremost.
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Downeastnc
Member
Not yet anyways.....everyone needs to go back and look how this thing spreads, take Italy first confirmed cases Jan 31st, it was almost a month before the first death, on March 1st they had 1,694 cases, as of today that number is 9,172....it was the same in China, SK etc....the measure SK is taking is very aggressive with literal armies of people spraying disinfectant all over the place and drive thru testing centers....
Here is the chart for Italy....this fits the known incubation period.....
I bought a 10lb package of 80/20 ground beef at the meat market 20 minutes up the road from my house earlier. For under $30. Vacuum sealed in 1lb bags when I got home. If/when this virus blows over, I’m grilling out all summer long. ? ?
Yellow Snow
Member
I'm the same way when I read about bedbug infestations...my skin starts to feel crawly & itchy at the mere thought of them.
According to Wikipedia's tables, total cases outside of China (as of 3/9/20) are 32,956. Total deaths are: 854. This gives an across the board mortality rate of 2.59%
Personally I don't think that's the true mortality rate. My estimate was based on reading an article by a virus expert predicting 1% mortality rate assuming 40-70% of the world population was infected. My number was assuming only 50% of the population (and only the adult population at that), while lowering the mortality rate from 1 to .5%.
I mean, maybe this expert was wrong, and the assumptions are flawed. But my estimates were on the conservative end of what he was predicting..
Here's the link: https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...-virus-expert-as-much-as-70-percent-of-worlds
The fear should not be with the virus. The problem will be the public panic when numbers sky rocket due to more testing. COVID-19 is already here. Once people realize this thing is at their office, in their neighborhood, at their kids schools, it’s going to be chaotic. That’s what you should prepare for. This is not the bubonic plague. That I can promise you.
Its not case count where they are different, it's hospitalization and critical cases. I posted this earlier today. Italy is some where around 10-15% critical condition and Italy's critical rate skyrocketed fast due to the much older population.
Italy also has a hospitalization rate of around 50% where SK is around 10% and you could probably say that could be more than it has to be because they hospitalized everyone regardless of condition at the start.
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That rate of 2-3% is correct as far as the way it is calculated. However like the mean of a model run, it's heavily skewed by one or two members. In this case it's the people over 60 and mostly over 70 that skews the mean.
Downeastnc
Member
They are still going to work and businesses are open etc.....the government just strongly suggest only absolutely essential travel be done locally and requires proof of need for travel outside of your local area. They also suggest no contact between people and only single members of families going to stores etc. Any businesses that can shut down or streamline are asked to do so....its not like they are all confined to their homes. Though if you had the means to be a home body for a couple of weeks its a good idea.
Alright. So you and I are agreed that 2-3% is probably too high. (I think)
And my .5% mortality rate for the adult population was too high?
If so, what do you think the true mortality rate might be, and why do you think .5% is too high?
Anyone with any reliable statistics on the number of cases that most likely go unreported? Like 3X, 5X, or 10X the reported cases? Just curious...
Downeastnc
Member
Found this on one of the Reddit threads about Italy this is basically were most nations in Europe and probably the US are headed over the next few weeks, though to be really effective they should do it now...people can still go to work and grocery stores are still open in Italy but they are not suppose to travel outside of their town/state not sure which, without permission though it would be impossible to enforce this.....so really this relies on the people to do what is right and realize that not doing these measures could result in the deaths of thousands of fellow citizens in a short amount of time. They are also saying that once hospitals ICU are full that people will die from other causes as well as there wont be ICU rooms available for heart problems, strokes, other illnesses, etc....
"The decree provides for banning all public events, closing cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs, funerals, weddings and all sport events, including Serie A matches. All schools and universities will remain closed until 3 April."
"The decree provides for banning all public events, closing cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs, funerals, weddings and all sport events, including Serie A matches. All schools and universities will remain closed until 3 April."
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I think it could vary widely. If it gets into a very elderly populated country such as with Italy it could be 4-5%, but if it gets into a country where it mainly affects people under 50, it may be less than 0.1%. The ability to keep those over 60 years old out of public places and away from grandkids until this all blows over the better off we will be.
I know onboard the cruise ship 60% were asymptomatic. There was also a town in Italy that showed the same numbers. A post I've read about the 1000 member church were the outbreak started in SK had like a 30% asymptomatic rate. Whether or not that number continues to the general public, I haven't seen anything proving anything.
I hope you're right.
But right now it's .4% for those between 40-49. It doesn't get below .1% until ages 0-9.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
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That is from China. I haven't seen if it was updated, but a day or so ago Italy was reporting 0 deaths under 50 and SK was close, but I think there was a few deaths under 50. There may be some from other countries not named Iran, but I don't know.
Can you give a link to the data you're looking at, just to make sure you and I are comparing the same numbers?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Did the media whip Italy up into a frenzy and cause them to lock down the country? China? Others?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You do realize that countries like China and South Korea with declining numbers or rates of increase in coronavirus cases had to basically shut down most of or the entire country just to contain the spread of the virus? That's most certainly not just hype or mass hysteria...
Denial is a powerful and dangerous coping mechanism.
I have come to the conclusion that people either view this is potentially disruptive virus or they think it's overblown. And there's really not going to be a way to move people off of their positions.
Personally, I don't care how people are reacting or how the media is reacting. What I care about is the data that shows the potential for rapid spread and the fact that it is a new virus. And I care about how governments around the world are reacting in places where it is spreading rapidly.
Those things are all red flags and all indicate the potential for significant disruptions to daily life here. There are also significant economic issues that are developing. Those are real, not whipped up fiction. So, if folks want to shrug those things off as overblown and no big deal, that's fine, as everyone has the right to feel how they feel.
I guess when school systems close and neighborhoods and communities get locked down for a time and products are unavailable while supply chains are down, maybe there will start to be concern. Because there's a lot more going on than just the mortality rate.
Personally, I don't care how people are reacting or how the media is reacting. What I care about is the data that shows the potential for rapid spread and the fact that it is a new virus. And I care about how governments around the world are reacting in places where it is spreading rapidly.
Those things are all red flags and all indicate the potential for significant disruptions to daily life here. There are also significant economic issues that are developing. Those are real, not whipped up fiction. So, if folks want to shrug those things off as overblown and no big deal, that's fine, as everyone has the right to feel how they feel.
I guess when school systems close and neighborhoods and communities get locked down for a time and products are unavailable while supply chains are down, maybe there will start to be concern. Because there's a lot more going on than just the mortality rate.
Look, I respect all of you and your opinions and approach this. I apologize if I seem snarky. I don't mean to be. I'm not going to post my views on this anymore because it's pointless and because I am not trying to ruffle feathers. Hopefully, it stops spreading here and hopefully it won't be a big deal. I pray that is the case.
Jon
Member
Everyone trying to figure out the mortality data, it’s futile right now.
We need more data.
We need more data not skewed by one nursing home (with advanced age or very old patients) getting impacted.
We need more testing!
For instance, taking away the US nursing home deaths in Washington (just say taking away Washington deaths for ease)
702 cases
27 deaths (-23 Washington)
4 deaths out of 702 cases.
0.56%
Is this a hint that the true mortality rate will be lower than the near 4% rate in the US? Maybe. But that’s all you can use it for, a hint. We still need thousands of cases to figure out how this goes. Using the nursing home numbers skews the data, but without them it also skews the data. So we can’t say “the real mortality rate is 0.56%” because we are ignoring important data. What if every nursing home is affected?
So my advice is it’s likely lower, but we simply don’t know and that’s all you can take away from it. It’s likely lower, but likely not extremely lower (say <0.1%).. 0.9% is still 9x more mortality than the average flu rates.
We need more data.
We need more data not skewed by one nursing home (with advanced age or very old patients) getting impacted.
We need more testing!
For instance, taking away the US nursing home deaths in Washington (just say taking away Washington deaths for ease)
702 cases
27 deaths (-23 Washington)
4 deaths out of 702 cases.
0.56%
Is this a hint that the true mortality rate will be lower than the near 4% rate in the US? Maybe. But that’s all you can use it for, a hint. We still need thousands of cases to figure out how this goes. Using the nursing home numbers skews the data, but without them it also skews the data. So we can’t say “the real mortality rate is 0.56%” because we are ignoring important data. What if every nursing home is affected?
So my advice is it’s likely lower, but we simply don’t know and that’s all you can take away from it. It’s likely lower, but likely not extremely lower (say <0.1%).. 0.9% is still 9x more mortality than the average flu rates.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
iT iS jUsT liKe tHe fLu
Jon
Member
We have a huge head start on Italy and I fear our government simply isn’t doing enough. Where will we be in 11 days?
Source:
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not good bob.
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