Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At the current rate of growth of case numbers in the US (we're growing at a rate of ~1.32*previous day's # of cases), we'll pass the 1,000 mark on Thursday & 10,000 by mid-late next week.
5 new cases in Wake, all got it at a convention/conference in Boston Feb 27th....they have had 7-10 days to spread it around.....the R0 number for this virus is 2-3 so this assumes that these 5 gave it to 2-3 people each in that time frame.
Nice knowing y'all!5 new cases in Wake, all got it at a convention/conference in Boston Feb 27th....they have had 7-10 days to spread it around.....the R0 number for this virus is 2-3 so this assumes that these 5 gave it to 2-3 people each in that time frame.
Rain Cold I hope you will continue to share your thoughts and opinions. No one should feel they can not express these. That is what freedom and this board is about.
I know we are all focused on the virus now but this virus is not going anywhere. It will be with us forever and be like others viruses. Every year they will have to choose a vaccine to give just like the flu. Hopefully they get it right the vaccine every year they give it.
It was a good run.Nice knowing y'all!
Me and Brick will be ok. We'll be on the other side of the Wake County split.Nice knowing y'all!
This is artificially high bc they are not testing people with minor symptoms world wide (except SK). Even Who says the death rate will drop a good bit as time passes.
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We have a huge head start on Italy and I fear our government simply isn’t doing enough. Where will we be in 11 days?
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I have come to the conclusion that people either view this is potentially disruptive virus or they think it's overblown. And there's really not going to be a way to move people off of their positions.
Personally, I don't care how people are reacting or how the media is reacting. What I care about is the data that shows the potential for rapid spread and the fact that it is a new virus. And I care about how governments around the world are reacting in places where it is spreading rapidly.
Those things are all red flags and all indicate the potential for significant disruptions to daily life here. There are also significant economic issues that are developing. Those are real, not whipped up fiction. So, if folks want to shrug those things off as overblown and no big deal, that's fine, as everyone has the right to feel how they feel.
I guess when school systems close and neighborhoods and communities get locked down for a time and products are unavailable while supply chains are down, maybe there will start to be concern. Because there's a lot more going on than just the mortality rate.
South Korea got the same information we did at the same time and they were able to have their test kits ready for 100,000's. The US simply failed here. And now it's going to blow up.
It is scary to think more about businesses shutting down for a couple weeks. That is a lot of people not getting paid. We all have seen how many people live paycheck to paycheck.Harvard tells students not to return from spring break. Classes moving online.
We have 16 public universities with kids who will be coming back from all corners of the earth packing into tight corridors in NC. Be interesting to see what decisions are made latter this week.
This is artificially high bc they are not testing people with minor symptoms world wide (except SK). Even Who says the death rate will drop a good bit as time passes.
It is scary to think more about businesses shutting down for a couple weeks. That is a lot of people not getting paid. We all have seen how many people live paycheck to paycheck.
CDC Atlanta rushed production of test kits, and the first batch was ruined.
View attachment 37024
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Why the CDC botched its coronavirus testing
The first testing kits from the Centers for Disease Control had a simple fault, and red tape prevented other labs from creating their own.www.technologyreview.com
Fair enough but the spread peaks after 3.5-4.5 weeks and then drops off hard. Look at China and SK as examples of that. I expect going by the same math that Italy should peak by the end of this week or Monday. We shall see.The death rate is still an order of magnitude higher than the flu across the board even if you correct for asymptomatic patients and a few orders of magnitude for those over 60 and with health complications. The death rate will drop only after significant measures have been taken to contain the virus and hospitals aren't overloaded w/ patients, we're just now starting the upswing in cases we are a very long ways off from that point in time.
They got the first batch of test kits from China. No clue why we trusted China to make good kits.CDC Atlanta rushed production of test kits, and the first batch was ruined.
View attachment 37024
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Why the CDC botched its coronavirus testing
The first testing kits from the Centers for Disease Control had a simple fault, and red tape prevented other labs from creating their own.www.technologyreview.com
Fair enough but the spread peaks after 3.5-4.5 weeks and then drops off hard. Look at China and SK as examples of that. I expect going by the same math that Italy should peak by the end of this week or Monday. We shall see.
They got the first batch of test kits from China. No clue why we trusted China to make good kits.
Yep, and there is information out there about the CDC not taking either the lead from the WHO or the actual test kits from the WHO. They wanted to create their own. Maybe they had to? I don't have time to look up the articles now. Not sure if that was a CDC decision alone or came from other federal levels.
The death rate is still an order of magnitude higher than the flu across the board even if you correct for asymptomatic patients and a few orders of magnitude for those over 60 and with health complications. The death rate will drop only after significant measures have been taken to contain the virus and hospitals aren't overloaded w/ patients, we're just now starting the upswing in cases we are a very long ways off from that point in time.
How exactly does that take away from the main idea that the coronavirus is much deadlier than the flu per capita and that it definitely should be taken seriously? 15-20% of cases in Italy are requiring hospitalization, we are so not prepared for this.Not quite. Much higher at the top, the same or lower at the bottom. Italy’s numbers are about the same if I could find the chart. Although I did find where Italy reported 1 person died on Sunday below 50, so that up from zero.
Just jumping here. This is a pretty good link.Can you give a link to the data you're looking at, just to make sure you and I are comparing the same numbers?
How exactly does that take away from the main idea that the coronavirus is much deadlier than the flu per capita and that it definitely should be taken seriously? 15-20% of cases in Italy are requiring hospitalization, we are so not prepared for this.
How exactly does that take away from the main idea that the coronavirus is much deadlier than the flu per capita and that it definitely should be taken seriously? 15-20% of cases in Italy are requiring hospitalization, we are so not prepared for this.
We still don’t know what the actual numbers will be here in the US but the fatality rates of confirmed cases is still way higher for the coronavirus for people in this age group vs the flu across the globe.Who said anything about it not being taken seriously? If it can be established that if you are in your thirties and forties, you will be fine, your teenage son will be fine and your infant will be fine, you can then direct attention on your older parents. It definitely should be taken seriously with the right view point.
The numbers are so different depending on the source it's hard to make any conclusion off them. The reaction by certain governments is what's eye opening. When has there ever been this type of a response for the flu or for that matter any virus? Something isn't adding up