Webberweather53
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
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Downeastnc
Member
yeah I read that last night, not good at all.....there will be hot spots like this in the US by the end of March probably...
Downeastnc
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At the current rate of growth of case numbers in the US (we're growing at a rate of ~1.32*previous day's # of cases), we'll pass the 1,000 mark on Thursday & 10,000 by mid-late next week. People should be prepared to have their daily routines and way of life significantly change for a few-several weeks at a time because that's the only way we're gonna be able to contain this virus. Just look at the extreme measures China, South Korea, & now Italy have had to go to... Quarantining most, or in Italy's case, the entire country.
Downeastnc
Member
5 new cases in Wake, all got it at a convention/conference in Boston Feb 27th....they have had 7-10 days to spread it around.....the R0 number for this virus is 2-3 so this assumes that these 5 gave it to 2-3 people each in that time frame.
Shaggy
Member
That's been one of the biggest problems is the asymptomatic transmission and fairly long incubation.
snowlover91
Member
Well I can say I am fully prepared for potential supply chain disruptions and raids on the grocery stores. I have just over 1 month of food supplies built up now in the freezer and about a week of freeze dried food as well. Also with kids I went ahead and ordered a 1 month supply of diapers and formula for my two youngest so in the event diapers, formula or food supplies are disrupted from grocery stores I will hopefully have enough to ride it out. I'd rather be prepared than caught off guard... I can just about guarantee that if there begin to be rumors of parts or all of the US shutting down like Italy that the grocery stores will get raided and it will take some time for them to replenish.
Jon
Member
Listening to Doctor Radio on SiriusXM, the Expert who was a consultant and still is for the CDC, said to watch S. Korea data for estimates of true COVID-19 population data because of their availability of testing, they are getting asymptomatic cases.
South Korea:
Has tested 140,000+ people
10,000 tests per day
7,513 cases
54 deaths
————-
5% infection rate
0.71% mortality rate
Btw: this is the doc that said this
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South Korea:
Has tested 140,000+ people
10,000 tests per day
7,513 cases
54 deaths
————-
5% infection rate
0.71% mortality rate
Btw: this is the doc that said this
Paul A. Offit | Faculty | About Us | Perelman School of Medicine | Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania
We are the Perelman School of Medicine -- the Nation's First -- and the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania -- the nation's first hospital built by a medical school. Our heritage is the cornerstone for our future and the legacy which supports our pursuit of the highest standards in...
www.med.upenn.edu
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D
Deleted member 527
Guest
Rain Cold I hope you will continue to share your thoughts and opinions. No one should feel they can not express these. That is what freedom and this board is about.
I know we are all focused on the virus now but this virus is not going anywhere. It will be with us forever and be like others viruses. Every year they will have to choose a vaccine to give just like the flu. Hopefully they get it right the vaccine every year they give it.
I know we are all focused on the virus now but this virus is not going anywhere. It will be with us forever and be like others viruses. Every year they will have to choose a vaccine to give just like the flu. Hopefully they get it right the vaccine every year they give it.
Nice knowing y'all!
Nerman
Member
It's way too early to claim it will be here forever or that there will be annual vaccines. I agree with most of your other posts on here though and it should be taken very seriously.
I wonder for those downplaying everything have any loved ones over aged 60? I'm in my 40's so not as worried about my wife or kids but I've got parents, aunts, uncles and even a grandmother out there. Over half of them are living with previous medical history. If we need to shut things down for a month or two or more to save their lives then I am fine with that.
No snow for you
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It was a good run.
Me and Brick will be ok. We'll be on the other side of the Wake County split.
Kidding aside, we may become one of the first "hot spots". I think we'll know in a few days.
NCSNOW
Member
One factor affecting the country's death rate may be the age of its population — Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.
Edit. This came from a news source,just passing along, sharing info
Edit. This came from a news source,just passing along, sharing info
Nerman
Member
South Korea got the same information we did at the same time and they were able to have their test kits ready for 100,000's. The US simply failed here. And now it's going to blow up.
Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned there will likely be a dramatic acceleration of U.S. coronavirus cases the next two weeks as more testing detects new infections.
Gottlieb said the federal government should have coordinated with both academic and private industry labs to begin testing sooner for the respiratory virus rather than rely solely on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s test kits.
“The mistake we made is we took a very linear approach rather than an all-of-the-above approach,” Gottlieb said during an editorial board meeting Monday with USA TODAY.
'Should have been a sense of urgency': Former FDA chief warns of spike in US coronavirus cases
Testing is ramping up among government, private and academic labs, many share the concern it's too late and also warn further delays are still likely.
www.usatoday.com
Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned there will likely be a dramatic acceleration of U.S. coronavirus cases the next two weeks as more testing detects new infections.
Gottlieb said the federal government should have coordinated with both academic and private industry labs to begin testing sooner for the respiratory virus rather than rely solely on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s test kits.
“The mistake we made is we took a very linear approach rather than an all-of-the-above approach,” Gottlieb said during an editorial board meeting Monday with USA TODAY.
No snow for you
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This is artificially high bc they are not testing people with minor symptoms world wide (except SK). Even Who says the death rate will drop a good bit as time passes.
Yellow Snow
Member
The Islamic Republic continues to whitewash their C-19 numbers (of course, this is the same government that lies about shooting down civilian airliners, so we can't expect much transparency from the mullahs).
We have a huge head start on Italy and I fear our government simply isn’t doing enough. Where will we be in 11 days?
Source:
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How does the much lower density of population in the US vs Italy and especially SK figure into the equation? SK density is nearly 20 times higher and Italy is about 6 times higher:
NCSNOW
Member
Harvard tells students not to return from spring break. Classes moving online.
We have 16 public universities with kids who will be coming back from all corners of the earth packing into tight corridors in NC. Be interesting to see what decisions are made latter this week.
We have 16 public universities with kids who will be coming back from all corners of the earth packing into tight corridors in NC. Be interesting to see what decisions are made latter this week.
Steven_1974
Member
Exactly! I'd much rather governments, businesses and people, in general, react with an abundance of caution than being nonchalant about it. Seeing what it took for countries that were getting out of control with the spread to get things back under control, we should be preparing for the same.
Yellow Snow
Member
CDC Atlanta rushed production of test kits, and the first batch was ruined.
Why the CDC botched its coronavirus testing
The first testing kits from the Centers for Disease Control had a simple fault, and red tape prevented other labs from creating their own.
www.technologyreview.com
D
Deleted member 527
Guest
It is scary to think more about businesses shutting down for a couple weeks. That is a lot of people not getting paid. We all have seen how many people live paycheck to paycheck.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The death rate is still an order of magnitude higher than the flu across the board even if you correct for asymptomatic patients and a few orders of magnitude for those over 60 and with health complications. The death rate will drop only after significant measures have been taken to contain the virus and hospitals aren't overloaded w/ patients, we're just now starting the upswing in cases we are a very long ways off from that point in time.
NoSnowATL
Member
I agree, if you are a hourly employee being shut down will not be good. Salary employees will fair a lot better if his/ her company closes for a week or 2. Plus a lot of people can work from home these days. The last thing we need to do is shut businesses down for weeks.
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Nerman
Member
CDC Atlanta rushed production of test kits, and the first batch was ruined.
View attachment 37024
Why the CDC botched its coronavirus testing
The first testing kits from the Centers for Disease Control had a simple fault, and red tape prevented other labs from creating their own.
Yep, and there is information out there about the CDC not taking either the lead from the WHO or the actual test kits from the WHO. They wanted to create their own. Maybe they had to? I don't have time to look up the articles now. Not sure if that was a CDC decision alone or came from other federal levels.
No snow for you
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Fair enough but the spread peaks after 3.5-4.5 weeks and then drops off hard. Look at China and SK as examples of that. I expect going by the same math that Italy should peak by the end of this week or Monday. We shall see.
No snow for you
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They got the first batch of test kits from China. No clue why we trusted China to make good kits.CDC Atlanta rushed production of test kits, and the first batch was ruined.
View attachment 37024
Why the CDC botched its coronavirus testing
The first testing kits from the Centers for Disease Control had a simple fault, and red tape prevented other labs from creating their own.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The only reason those countries have peaked is because they literally shut most of or the entire country down for weeks on end. We still have people in high places (trump admin) that think this is just a big "liberal hoax" or not a big deal at all. (Pardon for my misinterpretation of your previous statement wrt whether numbers in Italy or the US would go down). The US has no less than several weeks-few months before there's a hint of light at the end of the tunnel.
Nerman
Member
Do you have a link to that? First I've heard of it...
LickWx
Member
Since some new cases were reported in NC and it’s been a couple days I’ll speak on a situation that evolved in the ER Saturday where I volunteered .
It started with a very undercover situation where a patient was brought in from the back way of the er for potential corona. Cops blocked hallways off to let them pass through. Patient got isolated , overheard nurses talking about how they were working on ruling viruses out and such . Second man walks into er entrance where I am. Claims he ate at the restaurant where the first NC corona case man ate. Complaining of headaches dry cough . Nurses are skeptical gets put into a triage and waits over an hour before someone takes him seriously . Again , no tests. Third lady, can’t speak English , elderly asian lady. Has a clear respiratory virus of some sort . Most miserable condition I ever saw, hacking coughing wheezing . Was also at the entrance .
It started with a very undercover situation where a patient was brought in from the back way of the er for potential corona. Cops blocked hallways off to let them pass through. Patient got isolated , overheard nurses talking about how they were working on ruling viruses out and such . Second man walks into er entrance where I am. Claims he ate at the restaurant where the first NC corona case man ate. Complaining of headaches dry cough . Nurses are skeptical gets put into a triage and waits over an hour before someone takes him seriously . Again , no tests. Third lady, can’t speak English , elderly asian lady. Has a clear respiratory virus of some sort . Most miserable condition I ever saw, hacking coughing wheezing . Was also at the entrance .
Yellow Snow
Member
The CDC has regulatory burdens that don't apply to WHO (in fairness, these exist out of an abundance of caution for health/safety considerations). The article touches on this:
Not quite. Much higher at the top, the same or lower at the bottom. Italy’s numbers are about the same if I could find the chart. Although I did find where Italy reported 1 person died on Sunday below 50, so that up from zero.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
How exactly does that take away from the main idea that the coronavirus is much deadlier than the flu per capita and that it definitely should be taken seriously? 15-20% of cases in Italy are requiring hospitalization, we are so not prepared for this.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Just jumping here. This is a pretty good link.
Coronavirus statistics and information
Real-time Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases tracker and resources to keep you safe.
corona.help
Who said anything about it not being taken seriously? If it can be established that if you are in your thirties and forties, you will be fine, your teenage son will be fine and your infant will be fine, you can then direct attention on your older parents. It definitely should be taken seriously with the right view point. The psychological strain that mitigates alone is huge. Not saying that some won’t misuse it though.
Nerman
Member
I don't get it web. I was hoping Tucker Carlson's comments last night might start penetrating the thoughts of some of the deniers on the right. (as least it seems those discounting the seriousness seem to lean right politically)
Front Page Featured | MRCTV
Carlson's opening monologue concluded:
"The Chinese coronavirus will get worse. Its effects will be far more disruptive than they are right now. That is not a guess. It is inevitable. Let's hope everyone stops lying about that, and soon."
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We still don’t know what the actual numbers will be here in the US but the fatality rates of confirmed cases is still way higher for the coronavirus for people in this age group vs the flu across the globe.
Heelyes
Member
The numbers are so different depending on the source it's hard to make any conclusion off them. The reaction by certain governments is what's eye opening. When has there ever been this type of a response for the flu or for that matter any virus? Something isn't adding up
snowlover91
Member
My guess is that the amount of older patients 60+ is a big part of the reason they're reacting this way. When you have mortality rates in this age group ranging from 5-15% depending on country and age group... then that becomes a pretty serious issue and likely why various countries start shutting things down. Also I'm not sure about other countries but I know in the US there are a number of politicians with health issues and 60+ which is the highest risk group. It probably makes it an even more compelling for politicians to take this type of action when they see that they themselves are in the high risk group.
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