Yellow Snow
Member
The official death toll in Iran is at 124, but meanwhile...
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
- Thread starter GaWx
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Downeastnc
Member
I look at it more from a quarantine standpoint, if they start testing and finding hundreds of new cases and they run down all the contacts from those people suddenly you going to have 100's of thousands Americans that have been known to have been exposed so what do we do. The CDC and WHO say if you have been exposed you need to self quarantine for 14 days...
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If I were a gambling man with millions at my disposal I would buy around 3:15 today and bank on another Monday rally. Sell at the end of the day Monday and do it all over again next week.
Nerman
Member
I guess we have a different definition of containment at this point. Maybe I, We, They should have said "manage" or "control" or some other word. No, you're not going to stop 100% of the virus from spreading and it's ridiculous to even consider the notion imo. You can slow it down a lot. Being aggressive with testing, quarantine, travel restrictions, etc. could save 100's, 1000's maybe more lives. We just don't know yet. There is a lot we do know though.
“We scrutinized this data and we believe this decline is real,” she said, adding that the extraordinary measures undertaken in China — including the unprecedented lockdown of more than 60 million people — had a significant role in changing the direction of the outbreak.
China's virus slowdown offers hope for global containment
The slowdown in coronavirus cases out of China offers a sliver of hope that the global outbreak can be controlled, but whether that can happen anytime soon without drastic measures remains to be seen, public health authorities say...
Emergency medicine physician Dr. Leana Wen, a public health professor at George Washington University, said widespread quarantines, lockdowns and travel bans of the sort ordered by China’s regime are unlikely to be used in other countries. How those less-aggressive approaches will play out is unclear, she said.
-600 @ 2pm.
Not done either ? Don’t buy yet! Hold the line! Monday is payday
Nerman
Member
I wouldn't count on it. Equities are following bonds right now. There is probably another easy 10 - 15% down from here. Look at European and Asian markets. A lot of speculation now that we could get back to 2016 levels. That's about another 20% drop from here.
Nerman
Member
"The President is no longer traveling to Atlanta today," a White House official said. "The CDC has been proactive and prepared since the very beginning and the President does not want to interfere with the CDC's mission to protect the health and welfare of their people and the agency."
But Trump contradicted that message later Friday morning, telling the press he might still go.
"We may go. They thought there was a problem at CDC, somebody that had the virus," Trump said in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, during a signing of bill to spend more than $8 billion to fight the virus. Trump added that the person in question at the CDC has tested negative for the virus.
"They've tested the person very fully and it was a negative test," Trump said. "I may be going. They're going to see if they can turn it around with Secret Service."
There's our well-oiled machine at work folks. Doesn't it give you all the confidence in the world?
But Trump contradicted that message later Friday morning, telling the press he might still go.
"We may go. They thought there was a problem at CDC, somebody that had the virus," Trump said in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, during a signing of bill to spend more than $8 billion to fight the virus. Trump added that the person in question at the CDC has tested negative for the virus.
"They've tested the person very fully and it was a negative test," Trump said. "I may be going. They're going to see if they can turn it around with Secret Service."
There's our well-oiled machine at work folks. Doesn't it give you all the confidence in the world?
Flurry
Member
If you twisted my arm, I'd say it goes into a free fall here soon.
Edit: Already started... -752
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah its struggled to get much above -500 all day......those last hr rallies can be awesome though
Going to be a sell off into the close. -1100 to -1300 incoming. JMO.
Nerman
Member
Our GDP is 77.4% comprised of the Service Sector. What happens when everyone stays home?
Maybe we can cut taxes? Nope. Already done that. Cut rates? Sure, already done that and already at historical lows though. QE? They're already easing just by a different name.
And we've got a $1Trillion deficit this year when unemployment is the best it's been in over 70 years?
Consumer confidence the only thing pushes this last boom. Perfect storm folks.
Maybe we can cut taxes? Nope. Already done that. Cut rates? Sure, already done that and already at historical lows though. QE? They're already easing just by a different name.
And we've got a $1Trillion deficit this year when unemployment is the best it's been in over 70 years?
Consumer confidence the only thing pushes this last boom. Perfect storm folks.
Can you believe the 10yr got under 0.7% today? That is a 30 bps move in 1 day!!
The amount of gloves and hand sanitizer being purchased right now is unreal. Literally have more quantity on open sales orders than I have in stock on order+on order+available from suppliers.
Now there is an empty container shortage.
Now there is an empty container shortage.
-783 at 3:00 pm. Gonna need to muscle up.
Downeastnc
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah Costco in my area got a shipment in several days to a week ago and started imposing a 3 per customer rule. It's flying off the shelves.
Yellow Snow
Member
The deficit is a function of spending exceeding revenues; there's no direct correlation to the unemployment rate.
Nerman
Member
No, I'm refinancing my house right now from a 30 year mortgage to a 20 year and the payment is basically the same. And I've only been in this one for 1 1/2 years. Crazy rates right now and could get better. Saying now the market is pricing in another 75bps Fed Drop. Hard to imagine but I guess we'll see. Anybody with a mortgage should make a call to your broker. Rule of thumb is a 1/2 point reduction in your rate is worth a refi. I'll be dropping .9125
Im seriously considering going with another 30 been here 2 years but I'll gladly take the extra savings
Nerman
Member
Maybe not direct in a literal sense but historically unemployment (and payroll taxes) have always been tied to revenues. Yes? One wouldn't have to be an economist to assume your deficit should be lower at full employment when compared to high unemployment.
For example, the last time our budget was balanced was the year 2000. That was also the last time unemployment was 4%.
On the bright side goods are starting to move out of China again, so we should start seeing those at port in about 2 weeks. Since this isn't a US only deal we might not have the ridiculous port delays we had with the tariff so maybe by early april some goods will be coming back on line.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Sell off heading into the weekend. No real surprise in my opinion. My guess is next week will have a lot to say regarding the longer term direction for the markets.
Flurry
Member
I'm looking into it as well right now....Just seeing what happens for a little while
Yellow Snow
Member
Only very roughly - and (as the science-minded folks in this forum know very well) correlation =/= causation.
-650 3:30. Time to run.
it’s trying to bounce up into the close. Hope it holds the next 20 mins
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
We just refinanced a year ago. Should we do it again?
Nerman
Member
LOL OK Agree to disagree. ?
Federal deficit increases 26% to $984 billion for fiscal 2019, highest in 7 years
The gap between revenues and spending was the widest in seven years. Defense, Medicare and interest payments ballooned the shortfall.
Budget Deficit Topped $1 Trillion in 2019 (Published 2020)
The budget gap widened despite a growing economy, hitting its highest level since 2012.
U.S. Budget Deficit Grew 25% in First Four Months of Fiscal 2020 on Calendar Quirk
The U.S. budget gap totaled $389 billion from October through January, compared with $310 billion in the same period a year earlier, the U.S. Treasury Department said.
www.wsj.com
S&P and Nasdaq getting ass hammered compared to the Dow.
-450 nice!
We did a refi 2 yrs ago for 15 yrs..... I'm seriously contemplating it but I like the idea of having it paid off in 13 too. If I could refi for 10 with a minimal monthly payment increase that might be the way to go for me. Certainly the silver lining in the market woes right now, usually how things work... bad one area, good another. You know, cold/snowy in the west and warm/dry in the east and vice versa
-268
Nerman
Member
Margin calls and covers to finish the week. Same as last Friday. I wouldn't take it as a sign it's going back up. Anything can happen over the weekend and on Monday.
Downeastnc
Member
So -255 not bad after some of the mid day lows.....
Yep could quite get there. Good run though.
Yellow Snow
Member
Do any of those articles you linked demonstrate a direct historical relationship between the unemployment rate and the deficit, or nah?
The Dow closed 1,400 points above the lows that occurred intrasession last Friday. The total drop from the all-time high to last Friday’s low was 5,000 points. So, today’s close represents a recovery of 28% of that 5K point drop.
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Yellow Snow
Member
Yep, and still well above the 52-week low of 24,680. I'll take it!
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