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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

Brick Tamland

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In NC those age 65 and older only make up 19% of the cases, but 85% of the deaths. 63% of those deaths are age 75 and older. I imagine the hospitalization demographics are similar, but they don't have that data on the NC Health and Human Services site.

They also have data on cases from congregate living facilities like nursing homes and prisons. They make up 22% of the cases, but 64% of the deaths.

I think NC would have been okay leaving most things open at a limited capacity like we are going to do with the phase 2 opening, so the majority of the work force could continue to work, and find out a way to target these demographics since they are at the most risk for hospitalization and deaths. All I heard was that the case for closing things, so we could flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being overrunned. We kept the grocery stores and big home improvement store opened, and those were packed, and I don't think we saw outbreaks because of that. I don't think it would have been any different with other things remaining open at limited capacity. It would be harder to do that in larger cities like NYC, though, where the population density is so great, and they depend on mass transit so much.
 
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superjames1992

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Lets see if this survives peer review.

It may be true (or not...would many of these deaths be delayed, but not denied?), but it’s easy to nitpick in hindsight. The response in some ways was certainly bungled (testing early on was way too sparse, for example, and nursing homes clearly needed better protection), but everyone was just flying by the seat of their pants trying to do their best in an uncertain situation.
 

superjames1992

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Another decent daily report, although nothing groundbreaking. The rolling 7 day average continues to decline; positive tests are slightly up over yesterday but down against the same day last week.

 

Brick Tamland

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Another decent daily report, although nothing groundbreaking. The rolling 7 day average continues to decline; positive tests are slightly up over yesterday but down against the same day last week.

I wish more people would actually look at the data of the percentages and demographics of those that have to be hospitalized and that have been killed by the virus instead of just the overall numbers.
 

Shaggy

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I wish more people would actually look at the data of the percentages and demographics of those that have to be hospitalized and that have been killed by the virus instead of just the overall numbers.
Overall numbers matter and a lot of us have many family members in that higher age group.
 

Shaggy

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superjames1992

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Be wary of those antibody tests. Depending on which ones are being used theres lots of problems with a few of them. One was even tricked using saline instead of blood and still gave a positive reading.

Yeah, if I got a positive result for an antibody test, I think I'd want to take another just to clear up the uncertainty as it seems like there could be a high false positive rate for some of them.

That is exactly why the efforts should have been concentrated on that age group and the congregate living facilities.
I agree that is true. And we need to strengthen those efforts going forward.
 

Jon

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If he gets shortness of breath or any chest issues or it gets worse/doesn’t get better the next day then yeah, he has a bad cough, fever, body aches, and a stuffy nose
He should get tested immediately. Testing is widely available should be free. It also helps with contact tracing and reducing possible case numbers.
 

superjames1992

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The CDC estimates that the CFR for symptomatic cases for COVID-19 is 0.4%, and 35% of cases are asymptomatic, yielding a total CFR under 0.3%. Additionally, the symptomatic CFR for 15-49 year olds is just 0.05%. Good news, if true!

Seems a little low to me based on New York's experience, though, if I'm being honest.


 
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Uncwmark

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The CDC estimates that the CFR for symptomatic cases for COVID-19 is 0.4%, and 35% of cases are asymptomatic, yielding a total CFR under 0.3%. Additionally, the symptomatic CFR for 15-49 year olds is just 0.05%. Good news, if true!

Seems a little low to me based on New York's experience, though, if I'm being honest.


"For people 49 and under, the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die."

So, out of 10,000 folks under 49 who contract covid-19 and are symptomatic, statistically, five will die. Plus, 35%+ (according to CDC) who contract covid-19 will be asymptomatic. So, that would actually mean that the total mortality rate for those who contract and are under 49 is even lower than .05%.

If accurate, that's very encouraging.

I'm sure you won't hear any of this on the evening news....
 

BirdManDoomW

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New York Times ranks North Wilkesboro Metro #1 in the nation. Winston-Salem is #6 and Hickory is up to #12. For cases going up.
 

superjames1992

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“North Wilkesboro metro...”. 😂😂😂😂😂
Apparantly, Boone is saying all visitors must be quarantined for 14 days. I have no idea how they plan to enforce that.
Yes, it seems like a law with no teeth. Perhaps they just hope it cuts down on visitors even if they can't really enforce it.
 
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