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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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For the folks in NC who believe the rise in cases supports the narrative that we need to go back into lock down... please take a deep breath and look at the attached chart detailing the daily number of deaths in NC. I've been tracking this chart daily for weeks and there's been a constant downward trend in the seven-day average death rate since mid-to-late May. We're not closing anything back down based on current trends, I'm sorry we're just not.

This seems to be evidence that we're doing a better job preventing infection among those groups with the highest risk factors (elder, congregate living, etc.) who are more likely to die if they contract the virus. I mentioned a few days back, whether you like it or not we've got to find a way to co-exist (live/work) with virus until vaccine is developed. That's what we're doing. Protect those who are the most vulnerable, but allow everyone else to go back to living life (as safely as possible). Yes, cases will increase and hospitalizations, too... but, death rate is ultimately what we should be worried about, no?

And... yes, that death rate will likely increase over the next few weeks (quite frankly, the seven day average can't get any lower than where it is currently), but... all will be ok. Stop panicking.

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I’m not for going back to phase 1 but it’s silly to think death cases are the only thing that matters. Hospitals becoming full or strained matter.
 
Uncwmark said:
For the folks in NC who believe the rise in cases supports the narrative that we need to go back into lock down... please take a deep breath and look at the attached chart detailing the daily number of deaths in NC. I've been tracking this chart daily for weeks and there's been a constant downward trend in the seven-day average death rate since mid-to-late May. We're not closing anything back down based on current trends, I'm sorry we're just not.

This seems to be evidence that we're doing a better job preventing infection among those groups with the highest risk factors (elder, congregate living, etc.) who are more likely to die if they contract the virus. I mentioned a few days back, whether you like it or not we've got to find a way to co-exist (live/work) with virus until vaccine is developed. That's what we're doing. Protect those who are the most vulnerable, but allow everyone else to go back to living life (as safely as possible). Yes, cases will increase and hospitalizations, too... but, death rate is ultimately what we should be worried about, no?

And... yes, that death rate will likely increase over the next few weeks (quite frankly, the seven day average can't get any lower than where it is currently), but... all will be ok. Stop panicking.

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As far as Georgia goes however... The death curve isn't dropping as fast anymore and appears to be leveling off and bounding to potentially go back up. Not what we wanted to see. :(
GAdeaths.png
 
grandpa is finally off oxygen and almost back to normal, he needs to get surgery on his carotid artery in his neck Becuase it’s 90% blocked, and another artery next to it is 60% blocked, he’s also had 10 mini strokes the past week based off his MRI, if there’s something scary about this virus and older folks with health issues, it’s the amount of blood clotting it causes, that really sets this virus apart
 
Biggest thing I wish the media would focus on is that recovered people are not really recovered. Post heart attacks, strokes, no taste, etc. Brother in law had to have oxygen tanks delivered weeks later is just another heart attack away from death. Any setback surprises will likely be fatal for him.
 
The lower rate of new deaths could be attributed to a number of different circumstances, but I think the primary factor is the increasingly younger demographic of persons contracting Covid-19. There’s a plethora of data indicating a rise in cases for people under the age of 49, particularly individuals between the ages of 20 and 25. The younger demographics are much more likely to survive infections, so it makes sense that the numbers are rising in certain states without an increase in deaths. However, the case rise may eventually translate into more deaths, particularly when the younger adults interact with their families. It’s fairly concerning that 18-39 year-olds have constituted a majority of new cases in AZ counties over the last two weeks.
 
Uncwmark said:
For the folks in NC who believe the rise in cases supports the narrative that we need to go back into lock down... please take a deep breath and look at the attached chart detailing the daily number of deaths in NC. I've been tracking this chart daily for weeks and there's been a constant downward trend in the seven-day average death rate since mid-to-late May. We're not closing anything back down based on current trends, I'm sorry we're just not.

This seems to be evidence that we're doing a better job preventing infection among those groups with the highest risk factors (elder, congregate living, etc.) who are more likely to die if they contract the virus. I mentioned a few days back, whether you like it or not we've got to find a way to co-exist (live/work) with virus until vaccine is developed. That's what we're doing. Protect those who are the most vulnerable, but allow everyone else to go back to living life (as safely as possible). Yes, cases will increase and hospitalizations, too... but, death rate is ultimately what we should be worried about, no?

And... yes, that death rate will likely increase over the next few weeks (quite frankly, the seven day average can't get any lower than where it is currently), but... all will be ok. Stop panicking.

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I agree. I think people get caught up in the total numbers and don't look at the percentages and odds when it comes to getting so sick that you have to be hospitalized or die. We aren't going to prevent everyone from getting sick, and it looks like the majority of people could have the virus and not even have symptoms. Also, even when we have a vaccine, what are we going to do if it's only 50% effective in preventing people from getting the virus like the flu vaccine is? We need to look at the stats and odds, and target those that are most at-risk from dying or getting so sick they have to be hospitalized.

There was a total of 1,761,503 cases of Covid-19 and 103,700 related deaths in the country between January 22 (when the first case was confirmed) and May 30, according to the surveillance report, published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. The data come from local, state and federal sources and is consistent with those reported through the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.

Overall, 184,673 (14%) patients were hospitalized, 29,837 (2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 71,116 (5%) died. Hospitalizations are six times higher and deaths are 12 times higher among those who reported underlying conditions. The most common underlying conditions were cardiovascular disease (32%), diabetes (30%) and chronic lung disease (18%).

Also, 75% of those that have died have been 65 and older. 44% of the hospitalizations have been 65 and older. I can't find the demographics for hospitalizations in NC, but 83% of the deaths here have been 65 and older, but only make up 15% of the cases. That correlation should tell us who needs to be targeted and protected.

The seven-day moving average number of new daily cases peaked at almost 32,000 on April 12 and deaths peaked 2,856 on April 21. The seven-day moving average numbers of new cases and deaths have been steadily declining.

People aren't going to stay home and not do things they enjoy if they see their chances of really being hurt by the virus are slim, especially those under 65 and in relatively good health. Their chances of getting really sick if they get the virus are so small, less than 10%. The huge majority of the work force is under 65, too, so shutting everything down just hurts most working people more than if they got the virus.

I think there are common sense things we can do to protect those most vulnerable. I do think it is smart to wear a mask if you're in a crowd for an extended amount of time. And I think those most at-risk should take extra precautions and avoid going out in public as much as possible. But the risk for everyone else just isn't great enough to not try to go about things as normal as possible.
 
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superjames1992 said:
One thing I’d like to see is data on new hospitalizations for NC. Hospitalizations are relatively high now, but it’s unclear to me whether that is driven by longer stays or by an increased number of new admissions. Unfortunately, I don’t know if that data is available.

The data’s definitely a bit confusing for our state. Cases and hospitalizations continue to look bad, but then deaths have been dropping...there could be some “hot spot chasing” that is driving the increased case counts/high positive test rate, maybe? I don’t really know. I do assume we probably had significantly higher actual cases in April/May that we simply didn’t pick up because testing was so sporadic early on in this state.

To me, the public health data at this point doesn’t support us moving to phase 3 imminently, though economic realities could force this sooner than might be ideal from a public health standpoint. However, I think we’re still a ways away from backsliding into phase 1. We could be in phase 2 for quite a while. At least life has largely returned to normal for me in phase 2, which is a big improvement over phase 0/1, so I could handle this for a while. However, bar, gym, etc. owners on the other hand......
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I don't know why the NCDHHS doesn't give the demographics for hospitalizations like they do for deaths. Like you said, we have see a rise in hospitalizations, but a steady decline in deaths. If the majority of stays in the hospitals are just a couple of days, and the deaths continue to decline, I think that would be a positive. The important thing is to keep the deaths down and the hospitals from being overwhelmed.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I agree. I think people get caught up in the total numbers and don't look at the percentages and odds when it comes to getting so sick that you have to be hospitalized or die. We aren't going to prevent everyone from getting sick, and it looks like the majority of people could have the virus and not even have symptoms. Also, even when we have a vaccine, what are we going to do if it's only 50% effective in preventing people from getting the virus like the flu vaccine is? We need to look at the stats and odds, and target those that are most at-risk from dying or getting so sick they have to be hospitalized.

There was a total of 1,761,503 cases of Covid-19 and 103,700 related deaths in the country between January 22 (when the first case was confirmed) and May 30, according to the surveillance report, published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. The data come from local, state and federal sources and is consistent with those reported through the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.

Overall, 184,673 (14%) patients were hospitalized, 29,837 (2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 71,116 (5%) died. Hospitalizations are six times higher and deaths are 12 times higher among those who reported underlying conditions. The most common underlying conditions were cardiovascular disease (32%), diabetes (30%) and chronic lung disease (18%).

Also, 75% of those that have died have been 65 and older. 44% of the hospitalizations have been 65 and older. I can't find the demographics for hospitalizations in NC, but 83% of the deaths here have been 65 and older, but only make up 15% of the cases. That correlation should tell us who needs to be targeted and protected.

The seven-day moving average number of new daily cases peaked at almost 32,000 on April 12 and deaths peaked 2,856 on April 21. The seven-day moving average numbers of new cases and deaths have been steadily declining.

People aren't going to stay home and not do things they enjoy if they see their chances of really being hurt by the virus are slim, especially those under 65 and in relatively good health. Their chances of getting really sick if they get the virus are so small, less than 10%. The huge majority of the work force is under 65, too, so shutting everything down just hurts most working people more than if they got the virus.

I think there are common sense things we can do to protect those most vulnerable. I do think it is smart to wear a mask if you're in a crowd for an extended amount of time. And I think those most at-risk should take extra precautions and avoid going out in public as much as possible. But the risk for everyone else just isn't great enough to not try to go about things as normal as possible.
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This number shocked me and doesn’t make sense. So a ton of people died in hospitals who were not placed in ICU?

Overall, 184,673 (14%) patients were hospitalized, 29,837 (2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 71,116 (5%) died.
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FL reported a record 2783 new cases today. The following story is of one woman who was a healthcare worker and got it after a night out with 15 friends who are also now positive:
www.news4jax.com

Woman, 15 friends test positive for coronavirus after night out at Lynch’s

Erika Crisp and more than a dozen of her friends became ill with COVID-19 after visiting Lynch's Irish Pub earlier this month.
www.news4jax.com www.news4jax.com
 
eyewall said:
FL reported a record 2783 new cases today. The following story is of one woman who was a healthcare worker and got it after a night out with 15 friends who are also now positive:
www.news4jax.com

Woman, 15 friends test positive for coronavirus after night out at Lynch’s

Erika Crisp and more than a dozen of her friends became ill with COVID-19 after visiting Lynch's Irish Pub earlier this month.
www.news4jax.com www.news4jax.com
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Naturally. The bars I've passed by over the last couple weeks are full of 18-29 year-old morons. Bars are great place to pick up viruses, and a weakened immune system from the alcohol makes people extremely susceptible. This healthcare worker should've know better.
 
Urban Texas hospitals in chaos right now. Close Bars. I love bars. I'll be in one tonight. But they gotta close. We'll see in another week if another catalyst for the rise in covid case is related to protests. But Bars need to close.
 
Tornadocane said:
Naturally. The bars I've passed by over the last couple weeks are full of 18-29 year-old morons. Bars are great place to pick up viruses, and a weakened immune system from the alcohol makes people extremely susceptible. This healthcare worker should've know better.
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Very true and DeSantis' reopening seems to have backfired miserably.
 
My uncle works at a local testing facility and he told me yesterday that “People are getting a lot sicker, sooner.” He said that a few months ago, people were coming in with symptoms that had been lingering for 5-7 days but he said here recently people are coming in saying “I woke up this morning and I feel like I’m dying. I was fine yesterday.” 14 day incubation is not one size fits all.
 
eyewall said:
Very true and DeSantis' reopening seems to have backfired miserably.
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No. We needed to reopen. I'd rather f-ing die than live in a world where we shut down for an entire year. People were so pent up with rage that they burned down a police station in Minneapolis. All it took was a single catalyst. This what I've been warning everybody about. The economy matters. If you don't think so, you're defunct. All the signs are pointing to chaos. This nonsense about not reopening is hurting this country. We don't need a shotgun approach to managing infections. We just need to be smart. Just shut down bars. We'll keep improving as we move forward. We need solutions.
 
Jesus. I just can't get over how a healthcare worker caught the virus cause she just had to go out and party with friends. Be an adult. I go to a bar with a mixed group from 21 to 70. Everybody is keeping their distance. Just be responsible. Since even a healthcare professional in Florida couldn't keep safe, shut down the bars. I'll drink at home. Like this really pisses me off. There's no reason anyone should have caught covid-19 given all the warning signs. If you see a crowd of people, move to a different part of the bar. Even during the monsoon season in India, viruses spread cause people tend to huddle together in shelters. Like we know how it spreads. Stranger danger. Also may have something to do with Vitamin D. We live in a temperate climate. There's no reason you should be contracting this disease unless your the experimental hamster trapped in a cage with a covid hamster.
 
This is an excellent metric to use. Check out how as the pandemic has went on, the Hospital/ICU ratio has dropped tremendously as has the vent use.
 

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Tornadocane said:
No. We needed to reopen. I'd rather f-ing die than live in a world where we shut down for an entire year. People were so pent up with rage that they burned down a police station in Minneapolis. All it took was a single catalyst. This what I've been warning everybody about. The economy matters. If you don't think so, you're defunct. All the signs are pointing to chaos. This nonsense about not reopening is hurting this country. We don't need a shotgun approach to managing infections. We just need to be smart. Just shut down bars. We'll keep improving as we move forward. We need solutions.
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www.wbur.org

The Only Way To Save The Economy Is To Stop The Pandemic, Disease Expert Laurie Garrett Says

A model by the University of Washington predicts 200,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by October 1.
www.wbur.org www.wbur.org
 
eyewall said:
www.wbur.org

The Only Way To Save The Economy Is To Stop The Pandemic, Disease Expert Laurie Garrett Says

A model by the University of Washington predicts 200,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by October 1.
www.wbur.org www.wbur.org
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Is she an economy expert? Does she really grasp the economical aspect that could increase the spread of Covid-19? Cause everyone knows a struggling economy or impoverished middle class will spread the virus and exacerbate the severity.

There's got to be a balance, unless you want to be those Nazis Fs in China. Balance. Anything else is just extremism. What people need to do is be more responsible. Stop going to bars. In fact, Close bars. We'll try the bar experiment next June. The spread of Covid-19 right now seems to be directly related to 18-29 year-olds that drink. We got another another 3 months of summer to experiment.
 
If accurate, Arizona had only one person admitted to the hospital for Covid yesterday which continued the slide despite the rapidly increasing positive cases.

It’s like nation has been hit by this pandemic backwards. First it hit nursing homes, then the susceptible and then the young and healthy instead of the other way around.
 
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(CNN)Children and teenagers are estimated to be about half as likely to get infected by the coronavirus than those aged 20 or over, according to research published Tuesday.

The modeling study, carried out by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and published in the journal Nature Medicine, used transmission models to estimate disease susceptibility and the relation of age to cases.
Researchers estimate that clinical symptoms of Covid-19 manifest in around 21% of those aged between 10 and 19. This estimate rises to around 69% in people aged 70 or over.

"Using a mathematical model the authors show that even under the most pessimistic assumption that young people are fully infectious then school closures could still have substantially less impact on the epidemic than they would for influenza-like infections,"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/heal..._term=link&utm_source=fbCNN&utm_medium=social
 
Brick Tamland said:
(CNN)Children and teenagers are estimated to be about half as likely to get infected by the coronavirus than those aged 20 or over, according to research published Tuesday.

The modeling study, carried out by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and published in the journal Nature Medicine, used transmission models to estimate disease susceptibility and the relation of age to cases.
Researchers estimate that clinical symptoms of Covid-19 manifest in around 21% of those aged between 10 and 19. This estimate rises to around 69% in people aged 70 or over.

"Using a mathematical model the authors show that even under the most pessimistic assumption that young people are fully infectious then school closures could still have substantially less impact on the epidemic than they would for influenza-like infections,"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/health/children-teenagers-half-covid-study-19-intl-scli/index.html?utm_content=2020-06-16T18:15:06&utm_term=link&utm_source=fbCNN&utm_medium=social
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CNN again. Children and teenagers are carriers. They are currently headed to camp per my nephews and GF's nephews and nieces' parents. They will bring it home to their parents, who are barred from my apartment. But they can hang out in the pool cause of the chlorine. Plenty of opportunity for mutations and shifts to occur during the summer. Camps. Another thing that should be cancelled based on scientific concern. Hopefully, the new strain out of Delhi doesn't make it over to the States.
 
NOAA says multiple hurricane flyers test positive for corona. Could impact hurricane season recon flights.
 
I'm not trolling at here and only want to see both sides of the story. Can one of you guys advocating to shut down until a vaccine available give me your ideas for keeping people fed and housed? I mean a realistic way; not just the government will take care of it.
 
EmersonGA said:
I'm not trolling at here and only want to see both sides of the story. Can one of you guys advocating to shut down until a vaccine available give me your ideas for keeping people fed and housed? I mean a realistic way; not just the government will take care of it.
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We can not shut down again. The hit to the supply line and the family cash flow is devastating. The people can choose to stay home and some will. As individuals everybody has to make personal decisions based on where their vulnerability is and protect themselves accordingly. The time has come to face this down and move on.
 

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EmersonGA said:
I'm not trolling at here and only want to see both sides of the story. Can one of you guys advocating to shut down until a vaccine available give me your ideas for keeping people fed and housed? I mean a realistic way; not just the government will take care of it.
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As someone who was in favor of the lockdowns, I don't think total lockdowns are coming back nor should they. It seems like Covid spreads easily when people are having extended interactions inside, at close range. So, people should wear masks, but they also need to avoid lengthy conversations in indoor public spaces. Health initiatives/education should be focused on that. Unfortunately, this hurts most restaurants and indoor entertainment venues, but honestly those industries are in deep trouble no matter what.

For any region that gets hit with major, NYC-level outbreaks in the future, weekend shutdowns may be the way to go. India is trying this, and some Native American reservations are doing it too. I like this better than the "two weeks shutdown, two weeks open" idea that seems to combine the worst of both worlds.

I don't think we can stay shut down, and I don't think we can pretend things will go back to normal if we ignore the virus.
 
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