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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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This is some very interesting data from NY... officially they have around 270k confirmed cases but antibody testing indicates 2.7 million have had it...

“Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.”

 
So maybe we should inject bleach into people or just hit them with some UV light? Talk about major facepalm.
Maybe we should just keep the airports open like Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi had suggested. Maybe we should all have gone to China town. Maybe we should have all gone out for Ice Cream like Pelosi. Maybe we should have just allowed more travel from Europe. Maybe we shouldn't throw stones willy nilly.
Maybe we need to act civilized and debate this a little more PG-13...
 
So maybe we should inject bleach into people or just hit them with some UV light? Talk about major facepalm.
Yea maybe not the injection part, but there was a old forgotten cure used in mid 1900's called Ultraviolet Irradiation of Blood.

Ultraviolet blood irradiation (UBI) was extensively used in the 1940s and 1950s to treat many diseases including septicemia, pneumonia, tuberculosis, arthritis, asthma and even poliomyelitis. The early studies were carried out by several physicians in USA and published in the American Journal of Surgery. However with the development of antibiotics, UBI use declined and it has now been called “the cure that time forgot”.

These observations led to application of UBI in patients suffering from pneumonia. In a series of 75 cases in which the diagnoses of pneumonia were confirmed by X-rays, all patients responded well to UBI showing a rapid decrease in temperature, disappearance of cyanosis (often within 3–5 min), cessation of delirium if present, a marked reduction in pulse rate and a rapid resolution of pulmonary consolidation. A shortening of the time of hospitalizations and accelerated convalescence was regularly observed.

Source
 
This is some very interesting data from NY... officially they have around 270k confirmed cases but antibody testing indicates 2.7 million have had it...

“Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.”


0.5% would be 5 times deadlier than the flu, if anyone’s keeping track.
 
Georgia is back open! Hope everyone gets out and catches a movie, goes out to eat, goes to the bowling alley, works out at the gym, and gets those hair cuts! Time for life back to normal!
That is, if you can find one of them open. Most in my area seem to be waiting.
 
That is, if you can find one of them open. Most in my area seem to be waiting.
LA fitness after originally deciding to reopen on May 1st has pulled back due to complaints from phone calls and emails they received.
 
This is some very interesting data from NY... officially they have around 270k confirmed cases but antibody testing indicates 2.7 million have had it...

“Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.”


Follows along with the other studies from California. Infection rate is higher, but so is asymptomatic rate. Will be curious to see where Sweden is in a couple of months. We will still be shutdown most likely and they might be past this.
 
That is, if you can find one of them open. Most in my area seem to be waiting.
Most businesses are smart while our governor is completely ignoring the reopening guidelines. While a decline is good, it's a false positive to jump the gun by over a week and go to phase 1.
daily_rolling_cases.png
 
Follows along with the other studies from California. Infection rate is higher, but so is asymptomatic rate. Will be curious to see where Sweden is in a couple of months. We will still be shutdown most likely and they might be past this.

0.5 is 5X higher than the flu.


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Most businesses are smart while our governor is completely ignoring the reopening guidelines. While a decline is good, it's a false positive to jump the gun by over a week and go to phase 1.
daily_rolling_cases.png
Yep. And this specific chart is not even complete. The whole decline he is ostensibly relying on is data that won’t even be complete for a week or two. By no means should we be making such significant decisions based on one charts *projected* outcome. Even if it’s correct it’s too early, like you said, and if it’s not then it is even more dangerous.
 
0.5 is 5X higher than the flu.


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It's much worse than that for older age groups. I would suspect the mortality rate to come down as this draws out, assuming testing increases...but still to high.

I wonder what the mortality rate of the flu would be if there wasn't a vaccine...considering half the population doesn't get the flu shot.


Screen Shot 2020-04-24 at 9.20.26 AM.png
 
It's much worse than that for older age groups. I would suspect the mortality rate to come down as this draws out, assuming testing increases...but still to high.

I wonder what the mortality rate of the flu would be if there wasn't a vaccine...considering half the population doesn't get the flu shot.


View attachment 40348
If there are 10 times as many positive people than reported the death rate is still double the flu in every age group except for the oldest groups which is much higher. The graphs are a little misleading because they show different age groups
 
It's much worse than that for older age groups. I would suspect the mortality rate to come down as this draws out, assuming testing increases...but still to high.

I wonder what the mortality rate of the flu would be if there wasn't a vaccine...considering half the population doesn't get the flu shot.


View attachment 40348
This chart is very suspect. First, your Covid-19 chart is from the Business Insider, not the CDC. Second, you're looking at reported cases on that chart and therefore CFR, the CDC chart probably is looking at IFR, The true IFR SARS-Cov-2 is still not known or generally accepted yet.
 
This chart is very suspect. First, your Covid-19 chart is from the Business Insider, not the CDC. Second, you're looking at reported cases on that chart and therefore CFR, the CDC chart probably is looking at IFR, The true IFR SARS-Cov-2 is still not known or generally accepted yet.

There isn't anything suspect about it...you are overthinking it. The death rate as you get over 50 is unprecedented and as others pointed out its at least 5 times higher in the younger age groups. That's what I took from the chart.

Though I do agree with you, we won't know the true IFR/MR of COV19 until we are done and testing increases dramatically. But, there isn't any sugar coating the numbers we are seeing now.

Below is NC's percentages...I calculated the "% mortality" based on the infection% and Deaths By Age from the NC dept of health.

0-2525-4950-6465+
Infection %0.00%48.00%28.00%25.00%
Deaths By Age0.00%4.00%11.00%84.00%
% Mortality0.00%1.92%3.08%21.00%
 
If there are 10 times as many positive people than reported the death rate is still double the flu in every age group except for the oldest groups which is much higher. The graphs are a little misleading because they show different age groups

Yeah, I know how math works.
 
FACT CHECK: No, Trump Did Not Tell People To ‘Inject Themselves With Disinfectant’ Or ‘Drink Bleach’
By Ryan SaavedraDailyWire.com
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, April 23, 2020. Trumps handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the economic collapse has shaken voters confidence in him, with the percentage of undecided voters more than doubling in the last two weeks.
Michael Reynolds/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Left-wing activists made multiple false and misleading claims on Thursday following President Donald Trump’s White House Coronavirus Task Force press briefing in which the president commented on new scientific findings from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

The activists falsely claimed that Trump “urged Americans to inject themselves with disinfectant” and “told people to drink bleach.”

To understand Trump’s remarks, it’s important to first understand the full context of what was said at the press briefing.
Bill Bryan, Under Secretary for Science and Technology at DHS, said at the press briefing, “Our most striking observation to date is the powerful effect that solar light appears to have on killing the virus, both surfaces and in the air. We’ve seen a similar effect with both temperature and humidity as well, where increasing the temperature and humidity or both is generally less favorable to the virus.”
Bryan talked about the half-life of the coronavirus on surfaces like door handles and stainless steel surfaces, saying that when they “inject” UV rays into the mix along with high temperatures and increased humidity that the virus dies quickly.
“The virus does not survive as well in droplets of saliva, and that’s important because a lot of testing being done is not necessarily being done, number one, with the COVID-19 virus and number two, in saliva or respiratory fluids,” Bryan continued. “And thirdly, the virus dies the quickest in the presence of direct sunlight under these conditions.”

Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1253446537373454343

Half-life of SARS-CoV-2 in saliva droplets:

Virus does not last long in high temperature, humidity & sunlight.
View image on Twitter

1,856

6:11 PM - Apr 23, 2020
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Bryan continued by noting that DHS also tested if certain types of disinfectant could kill the coronavirus.
“We’ve tested bleach, we’ve tested isopropyl alcohol on the virus, specifically in saliva or in respiratory fluids, and I can tell you that bleach will kill the virus in five minutes,” Bryan said. “Isopropyl alcohol will kill the virus in 30 seconds, and that’s with no manipulation, no rubbing. Just bring it on and leaving it go. You rub it and it goes away even faster.”
Bryan added, “We’re also looking at other disinfectants, specifically looking at the COVID-19 virus in saliva.”
Immediately following these remarks, Trump said:
So, I’m going to ask Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing when we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that, so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful.
A few moments later, ABC News reporter Jon Karl asked Bryan, “The president mentioned the idea of a cleaner, bleach and isopropyl alcohol emerging. There’s no scenario where that could be injected into a person, is there?”
“No, I’m here to talk about the finds that we had in the study,” Bryan responded. “We don’t do that within that lab at our labs.”
Trump then clarified his remarks: “It wouldn’t be through injections, you’re talking about almost a cleaning and sterilization of an area. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t work, but it certainly has a big affect if it’s on a stationary object.”
Trump later raised the possibility of whether UV rays could kill the coronavirus if it was on a person’s skin, in particular if it were on their hands.
“If they’re outside, right, and their hands are exposed to the sun, will that kill it as though it were a piece of metal or something else?” Trump asked.
“I don’t want to say it will at the same rate because it’s a non-porous surface, but what we do know is that we looked at the worst case scenario and the virus lives longer on non-porous surfaces,” Bryan responded. “So porous surfaces, it doesn’t live quite as long, so in theory what you said is correct.”
Left-wing activist Chris D. Jackson wrote that Trump had “urged Americans to inject themselves with disinfectant.”

Chris D. Jackson

@ChrisDJackson

https://twitter.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1253505814637273089

Tonight the far left seems more upset about a report suggesting a former Treasury Secretary is advising @JoeBiden on economic policy than the fact that @realDonaldTrump urged Americans to inject themselves with disinfectant.

This is our political reality in a nutshell.

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10:07 PM - Apr 23, 2020
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Jake Maccoby, a former speech writer for the Obama Justice Department, wrote on Twitter that Trump had “told people to drink bleach.”

Jake Maccoby

@jdmaccoby

https://twitter.com/jdmaccoby/status/1253470748569669636

Trump downplayed the virus then called for rebellion then told people to drink bleach, maybe it's time to stop taking his press conferences live

1,358

7:48 PM - Apr 23, 2020
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FACT CHECK: No, Trump Did Not Tell People To ‘Inject Themselves With Disinfectant’ Or ‘Drink Bleach’
By Ryan SaavedraDailyWire.com
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, April 23, 2020. Trumps handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the economic collapse has shaken voters confidence in him, with the percentage of undecided voters more than doubling in the last two weeks.
Michael Reynolds/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Facebook
Twitter
Mail



Left-wing activists made multiple false and misleading claims on Thursday following President Donald Trump’s White House Coronavirus Task Force press briefing in which the president commented on new scientific findings from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

The activists falsely claimed that Trump “urged Americans to inject themselves with disinfectant” and “told people to drink bleach.”

To understand Trump’s remarks, it’s important to first understand the full context of what was said at the press briefing.
Bill Bryan, Under Secretary for Science and Technology at DHS, said at the press briefing, “Our most striking observation to date is the powerful effect that solar light appears to have on killing the virus, both surfaces and in the air. We’ve seen a similar effect with both temperature and humidity as well, where increasing the temperature and humidity or both is generally less favorable to the virus.”
Bryan talked about the half-life of the coronavirus on surfaces like door handles and stainless steel surfaces, saying that when they “inject” UV rays into the mix along with high temperatures and increased humidity that the virus dies quickly.
“The virus does not survive as well in droplets of saliva, and that’s important because a lot of testing being done is not necessarily being done, number one, with the COVID-19 virus and number two, in saliva or respiratory fluids,” Bryan continued. “And thirdly, the virus dies the quickest in the presence of direct sunlight under these conditions.”

991 people are talking about this



Bryan continued by noting that DHS also tested if certain types of disinfectant could kill the coronavirus.
“We’ve tested bleach, we’ve tested isopropyl alcohol on the virus, specifically in saliva or in respiratory fluids, and I can tell you that bleach will kill the virus in five minutes,” Bryan said. “Isopropyl alcohol will kill the virus in 30 seconds, and that’s with no manipulation, no rubbing. Just bring it on and leaving it go. You rub it and it goes away even faster.”
Bryan added, “We’re also looking at other disinfectants, specifically looking at the COVID-19 virus in saliva.”
Immediately following these remarks, Trump said:

A few moments later, ABC News reporter Jon Karl asked Bryan, “The president mentioned the idea of a cleaner, bleach and isopropyl alcohol emerging. There’s no scenario where that could be injected into a person, is there?”
“No, I’m here to talk about the finds that we had in the study,” Bryan responded. “We don’t do that within that lab at our labs.”
Trump then clarified his remarks: “It wouldn’t be through injections, you’re talking about almost a cleaning and sterilization of an area. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t work, but it certainly has a big affect if it’s on a stationary object.”
Trump later raised the possibility of whether UV rays could kill the coronavirus if it was on a person’s skin, in particular if it were on their hands.
“If they’re outside, right, and their hands are exposed to the sun, will that kill it as though it were a piece of metal or something else?” Trump asked.
“I don’t want to say it will at the same rate because it’s a non-porous surface, but what we do know is that we looked at the worst case scenario and the virus lives longer on non-porous surfaces,” Bryan responded. “So porous surfaces, it doesn’t live quite as long, so in theory what you said is correct.”
Left-wing activist Chris D. Jackson wrote that Trump had “urged Americans to inject themselves with disinfectant.”

402 people are talking about this



Jake Maccoby, a former speech writer for the Obama Justice Department, wrote on Twitter that Trump had “told people to drink bleach.”
What he said implied that disenfectants or bright light could kill the virus, should have kept his mouth shut.
 
I thought we are talking about the sharing of ideas and opinions on this forum. Was somebody advocating poisoning themselves or others or deliberately infecting themselves or others on this forum?
Read back some of the posts and what they were quoting and talking about then come back and re-read what you just said. Bottom line is that if we believe it's getting out of hand, stray away from that. We're 1 step from shutting this thread down because people can't control themselves.
 
Yep. And this specific chart is not even complete. The whole decline he is ostensibly relying on is data that won’t even be complete for a week or two. By no means should we be making such significant decisions based on one charts *projected* outcome. Even if it’s correct it’s too early, like you said, and if it’s not then it is even more dangerous.
Exactly, the last dot before the shaded area is higher than the previous dot, thus still going higher. All of the shaded area is not certain. If this is his data showing a decline it’s understandable that he didn’t know asymptomatic people could pass on the virus.
 
New York State has 422 new deaths today.
Lowest in a long time. Good news...although 422 is still disturbingly high.

I'm somewhat troubled by the high numbers of new cases coming in in Spain despite the lockdown there.
 
0.5 is 5X higher than the flu.


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The interesting aspect of that study is that it shows the coronavirus death rate could be much lower than it is right now (around 4% I think, .5% is much better). It is also interesting that roughly 10x more people probably have/had this than official numbers reflect in NY. That’s pretty significant imo as it means this is more widespread and less deadly (though still bad) than official numbers reflect.
 
In all the back and forth debate about whether to shut down or reopen I think we lose sight of how lucky we are getting.

All this new antibody data shows the possibility that infections are as widespread as feared that led to the lockdown policies.

What was unforeseen was asymptomatic rates. This may be the biggest bullet we have dodged as a nation In all of this.

Just imagine 2.7 million more sick people in NY and what mayhem that would have caused.
 
In all the back and forth debate about whether to shut down or reopen I think we lose sight of how lucky we are getting.

All this new antibody data shows the possibility that infections are as widespread as feared that led to the lockdown policies.

What was unforeseen was asymptomatic rates. This may be the biggest bullet we have dodged as a nation In all of this.

Just imagine 2.7 million more sick people in NY and what mayhem that would have caused.

I’ve always thought since the data first came out a few months back that there were tons of mild to no symptoms cases with this virus, in every country. I imagine if Italy and other countries used the antibody testing their numbers would also be much higher. The big clue about this imo was the cruise ship where they tested everyone and there were a lot of people who tested positive with no or mild symptoms.
 
I’ve always thought since the data first came out a few months back that there were tons of mild to no symptoms cases with this virus, in every country. I imagine if Italy and other countries used the antibody testing their numbers would also be much higher. The big clue about this imo was the cruise ship where they tested everyone and there were a lot of people who tested positive with no or mild symptoms.

Yeah that was a good case study for sure. Let's hope those numbers are accurate and as we learn more those numbers hold true and that the antibodies last long enough to create some level of herd immunity.
 
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