Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

[snowlover91]

This is some very interesting data from NY... officially they have around 270k confirmed cases but antibody testing indicates 2.7 million have had it...

“Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.”

Coronavirus Survey Reveals 13.9% In New York Have COVID-19 Antibodies, Cuomo Says

In a sampling of 3,000 people taken at grocery stores across the state, the survey showed 13.9% of those had coronavirus antibodies, indicating they had previously been exposed but have overcome the disease.

newyork.cbslocal.com

 

[TheBatman]

So maybe we should inject bleach into people or just hit them with some UV light? Talk about major facepalm.

Maybe we should just keep the airports open like Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi had suggested. Maybe we should all have gone to China town. Maybe we should have all gone out for Ice Cream like Pelosi. Maybe we should have just allowed more travel from Europe. Maybe we shouldn't throw stones willy nilly.

Maybe we need to act civilized and debate this a little more PG-13...

 

[StoneMtnWx]

So maybe we should inject bleach into people or just hit them with some UV light? Talk about major facepalm.

Yea maybe not the injection part, but there was a old forgotten cure used in mid 1900's called Ultraviolet Irradiation of Blood.

Ultraviolet blood irradiation (UBI) was extensively used in the 1940s and 1950s to treat many diseases including septicemia, pneumonia, tuberculosis, arthritis, asthma and even poliomyelitis. The early studies were carried out by several physicians in USA and published in the American Journal of Surgery. However with the development of antibiotics, UBI use declined and it has now been called “the cure that time forgot”.

These observations led to application of UBI in patients suffering from pneumonia. In a series of 75 cases in which the diagnoses of pneumonia were confirmed by X-rays, all patients responded well to UBI showing a rapid decrease in temperature, disappearance of cyanosis (often within 3–5 min), cessation of delirium if present, a marked reduction in pulse rate and a rapid resolution of pulmonary consolidation. A shortening of the time of hospitalizations and accelerated convalescence was regularly observed.

Source

 

[Jon]

This is some very interesting data from NY... officially they have around 270k confirmed cases but antibody testing indicates 2.7 million have had it...

“Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.”

Coronavirus Survey Reveals 13.9% In New York Have COVID-19 Antibodies, Cuomo Says

In a sampling of 3,000 people taken at grocery stores across the state, the survey showed 13.9% of those had coronavirus antibodies, indicating they had previously been exposed but have overcome the disease.

newyork.cbslocal.com

0.5% would be 5 times deadlier than the flu, if anyone’s keeping track.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[EmersonGA]

Georgia is back open! Hope everyone gets out and catches a movie, goes out to eat, goes to the bowling alley, works out at the gym, and gets those hair cuts! Time for life back to normal!

That is, if you can find one of them open. Most in my area seem to be waiting.

 

[StoneMtnWx]

That is, if you can find one of them open. Most in my area seem to be waiting.

LA fitness after originally deciding to reopen on May 1st has pulled back due to complaints from phone calls and emails they received.

 

[KyloG]

This is some very interesting data from NY... officially they have around 270k confirmed cases but antibody testing indicates 2.7 million have had it...

“Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.”

Coronavirus Survey Reveals 13.9% In New York Have COVID-19 Antibodies, Cuomo Says

In a sampling of 3,000 people taken at grocery stores across the state, the survey showed 13.9% of those had coronavirus antibodies, indicating they had previously been exposed but have overcome the disease.

newyork.cbslocal.com

Follows along with the other studies from California. Infection rate is higher, but so is asymptomatic rate. Will be curious to see where Sweden is in a couple of months. We will still be shutdown most likely and they might be past this.

 

[ForsythSnow]

That is, if you can find one of them open. Most in my area seem to be waiting.

Most businesses are smart while our governor is completely ignoring the reopening guidelines. While a decline is good, it's a false positive to jump the gun by over a week and go to phase 1.

 

[Yellow Snow]

Interesting tidbit here on infections among NYC's homeless population:

New data highlight deadly COVID-19 impact in NYC

Study reveals a 9.7% death rate in hospital patients—24.5% in those needing mechanical ventilators.

www.cidrap.umn.edu

 

[BHS1975]

Follows along with the other studies from California. Infection rate is higher, but so is asymptomatic rate. Will be curious to see where Sweden is in a couple of months. We will still be shutdown most likely and they might be past this.

0.5 is 5X higher than the flu.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ontherocks]

Most businesses are smart while our governor is completely ignoring the reopening guidelines. While a decline is good, it's a false positive to jump the gun by over a week and go to phase 1.

Yep. And this specific chart is not even complete. The whole decline he is ostensibly relying on is data that won’t even be complete for a week or two. By no means should we be making such significant decisions based on one charts *projected* outcome. Even if it’s correct it’s too early, like you said, and if it’s not then it is even more dangerous.

 

[KyloG]

0.5 is 5X higher than the flu.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's much worse than that for older age groups. I would suspect the mortality rate to come down as this draws out, assuming testing increases...but still to high.

I wonder what the mortality rate of the flu would be if there wasn't a vaccine...considering half the population doesn't get the flu shot.

 

[Heelyes]

It's much worse than that for older age groups. I would suspect the mortality rate to come down as this draws out, assuming testing increases...but still to high.

I wonder what the mortality rate of the flu would be if there wasn't a vaccine...considering half the population doesn't get the flu shot.


View attachment 40348

If there are 10 times as many positive people than reported the death rate is still double the flu in every age group except for the oldest groups which is much higher. The graphs are a little misleading because they show different age groups

 

[Heelyes]

The difference between the flu and covid-19 is it will take 50 million flu cases to cause 50k deaths.

 

[weatherfide]

It's much worse than that for older age groups. I would suspect the mortality rate to come down as this draws out, assuming testing increases...but still to high.

I wonder what the mortality rate of the flu would be if there wasn't a vaccine...considering half the population doesn't get the flu shot.


View attachment 40348

This chart is very suspect. First, your Covid-19 chart is from the Business Insider, not the CDC. Second, you're looking at reported cases on that chart and therefore CFR, the CDC chart probably is looking at IFR, The true IFR SARS-Cov-2 is still not known or generally accepted yet.

 

[weatherfide]

Maybe we need to act civilized and debate this a little more PG-13...

Looks like it is staying civil, unless by civil you mean, don't criticize any ideas at all.

 

[KyloG]

This chart is very suspect. First, your Covid-19 chart is from the Business Insider, not the CDC. Second, you're looking at reported cases on that chart and therefore CFR, the CDC chart probably is looking at IFR, The true IFR SARS-Cov-2 is still not known or generally accepted yet.

There isn't anything suspect about it...you are overthinking it. The death rate as you get over 50 is unprecedented and as others pointed out its at least 5 times higher in the younger age groups. That's what I took from the chart.

Though I do agree with you, we won't know the true IFR/MR of COV19 until we are done and testing increases dramatically. But, there isn't any sugar coating the numbers we are seeing now.

Below is NC's percentages...I calculated the "% mortality" based on the infection% and Deaths By Age from the NC dept of health.

	0-25	25-49	50-64	65+
Infection %	0.00%	48.00%	28.00%	25.00%
Deaths By Age	0.00%	4.00%	11.00%	84.00%
% Mortality	0.00%	1.92%	3.08%	21.00%

 

[KyloG]

If there are 10 times as many positive people than reported the death rate is still double the flu in every age group except for the oldest groups which is much higher. The graphs are a little misleading because they show different age groups

Yeah, I know how math works.

 

[Heelyes]

Yeah, I know how math works.

I was trying to add to your point not detract from it. Thanks for the graph