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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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For Georgia statewide, here are 24 hour changes (based on 7 PM) back to 3/28 for # of new cases/# of new deaths:

Sat 3/28: 168/4
Sun 3/29: 317/14
Mon 3/30: 349/4
Tue 3/31; 1,085/38
Wed 4/1: 631/29
Thu 4/2: 696/22
Fri 4/3: 523/22
Sat 4/4: 416/10
Sun 4/5: 359/11
Mon 4/6: 816/75
Tue 4/7: 1,598/54
Wed 4/8: 1/033/21
Thu 4/9: 696/43
Fri 4/10: 974/13
Sat 4/11: 402/7
Sun 4/12: 289/10
Mon 4/13: 1,076/38
Tue 4/14: 957/44
Wed 4/15: 682/52
Thu 4/16: 1,108/41
Fri 4/17: 1,064/51
Sat 4/18: 409/9
Sun 4/19: 648/12
Mon 4/20: 910/86

So, today had 86 deaths, the worst day yet!

This doesn’t look like a definite top to me as this past Thu-Mon, combined, was by a large margin the highest for both new cases and new deaths for any Thu-Mon yet. The # of new cases was ~4,000 vs ~3,400 the prior Thu-Mon. The # of new deaths was 199 vs only 111 the prior Thu-Mon.
 
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Snowflowxxl said:
THANK YOU BRIAN KEMP!
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Remember this chart and we’ll revisit it in a couple of weeks. 7 day average doubling time is 13.7...very close to N.C. (13.7). If Kemp causes an influx of positive cases by opening at the wrong time (too soon), the number will decrease and move toward 10, assuming continued testing. Let the games (with lives) begin!

10431079070b7f095033ca274beceb00.jpg



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GaWx said:
For Georgia statewide, here are 24 hour changes (based on 7 PM) back to 3/28 for # of new cases/# of new deaths:

Sat 3/28: 168/4
Sun 3/29: 317/14
Mon 3/30: 349/4
Tue 3/31; 1,085/38
Wed 4/1: 631/29
Thu 4/2: 696/22
Fri 4/3: 523/22
Sat 4/4: 416/10
Sun 4/5: 359/11
Mon 4/6: 816/75
Tue 4/7: 1,598/54
Wed 4/8: 1/033/21
Thu 4/9: 696/43
Fri 4/10: 974/13
Sat 4/11: 402/7
Sun 4/12: 289/10
Mon 4/13: 1,076/38
Tue 4/14: 957/44
Wed 4/15: 682/52
Thu 4/16: 1,108/41
Fri 4/17: 1,064/51
Sat 4/18: 409/9
Sun 4/19: 648/12
Mon 4/20: 458/44 & lots more to count

This doesn’t look like a definite top to me as this past Thu-Sun, combined, was by a large margin the highest for both new cases and new deaths for any Thu-Sun yet.
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Yep. There’s higher odds that it hasn’t passed yet.
7e205bb29bc20ee9f40d6cc2c6b7d5a9.jpg



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Very interesting, close to the other study. If this is proved true and we can get a medicine that is effective on the worst cases, we can easily beat this.

Edit: Just noticed it said Adults. If the percentage of kids are the same that could be as high at 10% of the population.

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.
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LISTING OF DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH PRESS RELEASES

www.publichealth.lacounty.gov www.publichealth.lacounty.gov
 
Jon said:
To be honest, when I was diagnosed I was a little scared because I’ve read a lot about the days sometimes weeks of fevers. I wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy. I knew I was healthy, but I think the “viral dose” theory matters and makes even the healthiest people have a rough time. I was worried, but by Day 7 I hadn’t worsened, so I’m immensely thankful. I have read people struggling with fever and cough on day 40. I just couldn’t imagine staying optimistic, I know I’d struggle mentally with that.
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Sadly my friend called me a few minutes ago crying. One aunt passed today from breast cancer but her grandfather has taken a turn for the worse. He has been fighting this for 2 weeks and has had fevers every day mostly between 101 and 103 and its finally shutting his body down. He has stopped eating and cant get off the bed due to no energy. Have a bad feeling this ends badly for him. How can someone that age fight a sickness like this for that long?
 
pcbjr said:
and completely avoidable death?
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There is no completely avoidable death. Covid-19 doesn't have very high mortality rate. Everyone's chance of death could be much lower if we all just stay put in our homes, don't smoke, or eat or drink anything but clean water. In the short term, we will all live! In the medium to long term, we will all most certainly die.

We have to get back to work and revive the economy, and take a balanced approach to avoiding illness, even Covid-19.
 
LithiaWx said:
have to face the virus eventually.
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Yeah but we should face it in a manner that puts the odds in our favor.

If you have to go over the edge of a cliff are you going to jump off without a parachute or wait for repelling ropes and equipment? You have to face going over the edge eventually right?
 
pcbjr said:
Which brings me to a corollary question of sorts ... if your dog is in heat and you don't want puppies, do you let her roam?
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Yes, in a fence, away from male dogs. That is exactly what we need to do with the economy. Open it up with precautionary measures, and let the people decide how much precautionary measures they are comfortable with.
 
Late to commenting on what we heard today, I couldn't care less about listening to Kemp (even though the details of some of these conferences have interested me) so I was playing mobile Call of Duty on my phone. But anyway...

I thought the guidelines for re-opening was pretty clear, and although it had seemed as if Georgia had flattened at least some, we weren't really on a down trend. To be honest, although some areas are doing better at it because of the major hospitals nearby (like mine), we still haven't been testing as much, and it's just now going to start being a lot, so if that's true, it's unlikely that we were going to trend down anytime soon anyhow.

Seems like considering what's going on, it's going to be more "we're going to do what we feel like doing".

I will say however that some areas of Georgia probably (unless there's a lot of travel there from other areas) could be fine if you chose to do it selectively which wouldn't happen.

But in either case, I'm not a governor that's laying his butt on the line. In about a month, he's either going to look pretty smart, or like total trash and will have probably submitted himself to getting voted out two years from here. That would be a rare event but it's definitely on the table because there are a lot of angry Georgians at him and they've been angry the whole way.
 
weatherfide said:
There is no completely avoidable death. Covid-19 doesn't have very high mortality rate. Everyone's chance of death could be much lower if we all just stay put in our homes, don't smoke, or eat or drink anything but clean water. In the short term, we will all live! In the medium to long term, we will all most certainly die.

We have to get back to work and revive the economy, and take a balanced approach to avoiding illness, even Covid-19.
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No there is no completely avoidable death ... I think you misread me ... with some basic old common sense, there is avoidable death from this virus, all without going broke or anywhere near it ... but I'll abide by our mods' wishes and not get "political" ...
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah but we should face it in a manner that puts the odds in our favor.

If you have to go over the edge of a cliff are you going to jump off without a parachute or wait for repelling ropes and equipment? You have to face going over the edge eventually right?
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Yeah, but what if 99% of the time the cliff is 1' tall and the other 1% of the time it's 100' tall? Do you wait for the equipment? Now add the reason for jumping the cliff...there is a big, hungry grizzly 100 yards behind you, sprinting your way.
 
weatherfide said:
Yeah, but what if 99% of the time the cliff is 1' tall and the other 1% of the time it's 100' tall? Do you wait for the equipment? Now add the reason for jumping the cliff...there is a big, hungry grizzly 100 yards behind you, sprinting your way.
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There is no grizzley bear in this scenario.
 
weatherfide said:
The grizzly is homelessness, hunger, domestic abuse, child neglect and eventual social fabric unraveling. There is always a "grizzly" otherwise you wouldn't be jumping off a cliff.
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weatherfide said:
The grizzly is homelessness, hunger, domestic abuse, child neglect and eventual social fabric unraveling. There is always a "grizzly" otherwise you wouldn't be jumping off a cliff.
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There is also a way (or two) to stop that bear ...
 
From 1918-9 pandemic, you can see how much better SL fared than Phil. This was largely due to much earlier restrictions. Reopening too quickly and extensively is a crucial factor, too:

1587420803654.png
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah but we should face it in a manner that puts the odds in our favor.

If you have to go over the edge of a cliff are you going to jump off without a parachute or wait for repelling ropes and equipment? You have to face going over the edge eventually right?
Click to expand...
weatherfide said:
The grizzly is homelessness, hunger, domestic abuse, child neglect and eventual social fabric unraveling. There is always a "grizzly" otherwise you wouldn't be jumping off a cliff.
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yeah, damage to the economy is probably a severe depression already. At this point we are talking about how many years. Gotta stop the bleeding. Homelessness, poverty, and malnutrition is going to shorten the lifespans of a lot of people if we don’t get the economy going fast.
 
According to SC dept of health, my town, Mt Pleasant has 98 reported cases, and 550 estimated cases out of 80k+ population. I think you should be able to go to your state Department of Health site you should be able to see by ZIP code.
 
LithiaWx said:
yeah, damage to the economy is probably a severe depression already. At this point we are talking about how many years. Gotta stop the bleeding. Homelessness, poverty, and malnutrition is going to shorten the lifespans of a lot of people if we don’t get the economy going fast.
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I agree, I'm just hoping that this isn't a bit too soon. I wanted to wait until about around May 15th and let the big hospitals in the state do their work in putting out tests (make more progress) and the antibody test that Emory was working on. I would've reopened businesses about around then with social distancing put in place. I don't think you can stay closed down for months, but you need some balance.

But now that it's going to happen sooner, although what I put above in my first post here after I heard about the decision is true, I just hope that we don't truly get bitten hard. As I'd like to stay open now as long as it's possible.

And admittedly if we do stick with being open, we're going to go see our family that has health risks sooner rather than later lol...
 
KyloG said:
Just eye balling it looks like new cases is decreasing.

4/5-10: 6k
4/10-15: 5k
4/15-20: 4k
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'till you factor in the recovery rate + new = what's floating around

do not get me wrong ... I want this to end and get folks back to work tonight ... I'm on the back end ... a "lagging indicator" you may say ... my pay comes 2 months after others get theirs ... but by God I want my folks who trust me with their work to be alive and healthy and up and working steadily, and not fighting a real long or up-and-down "recovery" ... and the ones I've talked to would forego 4 or so more weeks to beat 4 or so more months, or a repeating cycle ... it's basic business acumen ...
 
pcbjr said:
'till you factor in the recovery rate + new = what's floating around

do not get me wrong ... I want this to end and get folks back to work tonight ... I'm on the back end ... a "lagging indicator" you may say ... my pay comes 2 months after others get theirs ... but by God I want my folks who trust me with their work to be alive and healthy and up and working steadily, and not fighting a real long or up-and-down "recovery" ... and the ones I've talked to would forego 4 or so more weeks to beat 4 or so more months, or a repeating cycle ... it's basic business acumen ...
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I agree with you. I wish we could stay lockdowned until vaccine is released. But, I know that’s not realistic, have to hope for the best and see how it goes.
 
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Bham 99 said:
Jackson county where you live has 55 cases and one death out of 73k people in the county.
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Judging by the lines at HD, Lowe’s and Wal-Mart the past month people around here never worried about it. Glad we are opening back up just in time for summer.


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NoSnowATL said:
Judging by the lines at HD, Lowe’s and Wal-Mart the past month people around here never worried about it. Glad we are opening back up just in time for summer.


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This is so true, the places around here have been packed. Heck opening things back up might actually increase social distancing because they’ll have more places to go lol
 
Obviously the higher risk folks should continue to be careful but it doesn't matter how long we stay shut down; when it opens up no matter when there will be cases. Two options; Vaccine (who knows how long) or Herd immunity.

Door #3 which has already been used has quite possibly destroyed the economy.

www.foxnews.com

Dr. David Katz: Coronavirus vaccine or herd immunity are only ways life can fully return to normal

Dr. David Katz, the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center in Connecticut, has warned that while social distancing is helping to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, it is also preventing the development of the "herd immunity" needed by the public to resume their...
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
For those interested, at least in my area some salons (and maybe small businesses?) are having to reopen when they can Friday instead of choosing to stay closed if they want because they failed to get unemployment or small business grants. Saw my hairdresser talk about that.

And honestly I'll probably see about going soonish. My spot posted their social distancing guidelines and it's pretty strict. I can wait a little while longer but I'll likely need to message her soon.
 
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