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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Downeastnc said:
yeah looks kinda like this...

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At the current rate of growth of case numbers in the US (we're growing at a rate of ~1.32*previous day's # of cases), we'll pass the 1,000 mark on Thursday & 10,000 by mid-late next week. People should be prepared to have their daily routines and way of life significantly change for a few-several weeks at a time because that's the only way we're gonna be able to contain this virus. Just look at the extreme measures China, South Korea, & now Italy have had to go to... Quarantining most, or in Italy's case, the entire country.
 
Webberweather53 said:
At the current rate of growth of case numbers in the US (we're growing at a rate of ~1.32*previous day's # of cases), we'll pass the 1,000 mark on Thursday & 10,000 by mid-late next week.
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5 new cases in Wake, all got it at a convention/conference in Boston Feb 27th....they have had 7-10 days to spread it around.....the R0 number for this virus is 2-3 so this assumes that these 5 gave it to 2-3 people each in that time frame.
 
Downeastnc said:
5 new cases in Wake, all got it at a convention/conference in Boston Feb 27th....they have had 7-10 days to spread it around.....the R0 number for this virus is 2-3 so this assumes that these 5 gave it to 2-3 people each in that time frame.
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That's been one of the biggest problems is the asymptomatic transmission and fairly long incubation.
 
Well I can say I am fully prepared for potential supply chain disruptions and raids on the grocery stores. I have just over 1 month of food supplies built up now in the freezer and about a week of freeze dried food as well. Also with kids I went ahead and ordered a 1 month supply of diapers and formula for my two youngest so in the event diapers, formula or food supplies are disrupted from grocery stores I will hopefully have enough to ride it out. I'd rather be prepared than caught off guard... I can just about guarantee that if there begin to be rumors of parts or all of the US shutting down like Italy that the grocery stores will get raided and it will take some time for them to replenish.
 
Listening to Doctor Radio on SiriusXM, the Expert who was a consultant and still is for the CDC, said to watch S. Korea data for estimates of true COVID-19 population data because of their availability of testing, they are getting asymptomatic cases.

South Korea:

Has tested 140,000+ people
10,000 tests per day
7,513 cases
54 deaths
————-
5% infection rate
0.71% mortality rate

Btw: this is the doc that said this

Paul A. Offit | Faculty | About Us | Perelman School of Medicine | Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania

We are the Perelman School of Medicine -- the Nation's First -- and the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania -- the nation's first hospital built by a medical school. Our heritage is the cornerstone for our future and the legacy which supports our pursuit of the highest standards in...
www.med.upenn.edu


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Rain Cold I hope you will continue to share your thoughts and opinions. No one should feel they can not express these. That is what freedom and this board is about.
I know we are all focused on the virus now but this virus is not going anywhere. It will be with us forever and be like others viruses. Every year they will have to choose a vaccine to give just like the flu. Hopefully they get it right the vaccine every year they give it.
 
Downeastnc said:
5 new cases in Wake, all got it at a convention/conference in Boston Feb 27th....they have had 7-10 days to spread it around.....the R0 number for this virus is 2-3 so this assumes that these 5 gave it to 2-3 people each in that time frame.
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Nice knowing y'all!
 
Matthew70 said:
Rain Cold I hope you will continue to share your thoughts and opinions. No one should feel they can not express these. That is what freedom and this board is about.
I know we are all focused on the virus now but this virus is not going anywhere. It will be with us forever and be like others viruses. Every year they will have to choose a vaccine to give just like the flu. Hopefully they get it right the vaccine every year they give it.
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It's way too early to claim it will be here forever or that there will be annual vaccines. I agree with most of your other posts on here though and it should be taken very seriously.

I wonder for those downplaying everything have any loved ones over aged 60? I'm in my 40's so not as worried about my wife or kids but I've got parents, aunts, uncles and even a grandmother out there. Over half of them are living with previous medical history. If we need to shut things down for a month or two or more to save their lives then I am fine with that.
 
One factor affecting the country's death rate may be the age of its population — Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.
Edit. This came from a news source,just passing along, sharing info
 
South Korea got the same information we did at the same time and they were able to have their test kits ready for 100,000's. The US simply failed here. And now it's going to blow up.

www.usatoday.com

'Should have been a sense of urgency': Former FDA chief warns of spike in US coronavirus cases

Testing is ramping up among government, private and academic labs, many share the concern it's too late and also warn further delays are still likely.
www.usatoday.com

Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned there will likely be a dramatic acceleration of U.S. coronavirus cases the next two weeks as more testing detects new infections.

Gottlieb said the federal government should have coordinated with both academic and private industry labs to begin testing sooner for the respiratory virus rather than rely solely on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s test kits.

“The mistake we made is we took a very linear approach rather than an all-of-the-above approach,” Gottlieb said during an editorial board meeting Monday with USA TODAY.
 
The Islamic Republic continues to whitewash their C-19 numbers (of course, this is the same government that lies about shooting down civilian airliners, so we can't expect much transparency from the mullahs).

 
Jon said:
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We have a huge head start on Italy and I fear our government simply isn’t doing enough. Where will we be in 11 days?

Source:


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How does the much lower density of population in the US vs Italy and especially SK figure into the equation? SK density is nearly 20 times higher and Italy is about 6 times higher:

CC148948-B20D-4DE6-A78E-85B5301CD307.png
 
Harvard tells students not to return from spring break. Classes moving online.
We have 16 public universities with kids who will be coming back from all corners of the earth packing into tight corridors in NC. Be interesting to see what decisions are made latter this week.
 
Rain Cold said:
I have come to the conclusion that people either view this is potentially disruptive virus or they think it's overblown. And there's really not going to be a way to move people off of their positions.

Personally, I don't care how people are reacting or how the media is reacting. What I care about is the data that shows the potential for rapid spread and the fact that it is a new virus. And I care about how governments around the world are reacting in places where it is spreading rapidly.

Those things are all red flags and all indicate the potential for significant disruptions to daily life here. There are also significant economic issues that are developing. Those are real, not whipped up fiction. So, if folks want to shrug those things off as overblown and no big deal, that's fine, as everyone has the right to feel how they feel.

I guess when school systems close and neighborhoods and communities get locked down for a time and products are unavailable while supply chains are down, maybe there will start to be concern. Because there's a lot more going on than just the mortality rate.
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Exactly! I'd much rather governments, businesses and people, in general, react with an abundance of caution than being nonchalant about it. Seeing what it took for countries that were getting out of control with the spread to get things back under control, we should be preparing for the same.
 
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