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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Shaggy said:
I recommend everyone on here read this entire article top to bottom. Read it and take the time to at least understand what they are saying and then you can decide if you want to dismiss this or compare it to the flu.

www.marketwatch.com

Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago

Americans need to prepare themselves that the next 12 months are going to look very different.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
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Nobody has dismissed anything and the statistics to date warrant at least a cursory comparison to a rather bad flu season.

50k to 5m is a huge spread for potential deaths.
 
Flu
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Iceagewhereartthou said:
But why? In that case, why not also view the seasonal flu the same way? There have been 35 Million confirmed cased is the US this year and 20,000 deaths! Per CDC estimates this is a light year for flu deaths. The past 5 years have seen:

2018-19 - 34,000 deaths, 500,000 hospitalizations, 35.5 million cases
2017-2018 - 61,000 to 80,000 deaths, 808,000 hospitalizations, 45 million cases
2016-2017 - 38,000 deaths, 500,000 hospitalizations, 29 million cases
2015-2016 - 23,000 deaths, 280,000 hospitalizations, 24 million cases
2014-2015 - 51,000 deaths, 600,000 hopsitalizations, 30 million cases

If we're viewing this illness as a threat to society then the seasonal flu should shut us down every year. What about auto accidents? Over 40,000 deaths per year and millions of hospitalizations. IMO, to call this a threat to society AT THIS POINT, is beyond hyperbolic; it's unnecessary panic.
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Because the flu doesnt over run our HC system. Theres lots of sick people but there are treatments for it. Hospitals dont run 200% above capacity with the flu.
 
Just announced all of Italy is red zone now. All of Italy under quarantine

just tellem to walk it off no snow atl
 
Shaggy said:
IFR versus CFR......I'll try to find that link.
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My point is the media driven mass hysteria. Think of it like this, so many people listen to news while getting ready for work, chasing after children, looking at their social media, driving down the road, talking on the phone, you name it they listen with one ear, barely. They aren't analytical like you, they're not reading articles and researching data and I'm convinced most media outlets, especially cable news, knows this. So throw out possible 20% mortality rate phrases or have a Harvard prof say 90 million will be infected, or the country may go on lockdown, etc and that's all they hear, that's all they know. Next thing you know people freak out, go into survival mode, wipeout supplies and instant disaster. It's the hype and playing on people's fears that's creating more havoc then the virus itself as of now.
 
Steven_1974 said:
We have a vaccine for the flu. There isn't one for this yet. People have been getting incredibly sick with this virus over a very small amount of time. That's the big difference. A lot of those deaths for the flu would be preventable if people would get the shot.
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True we have a vaccine for the flu but it's often ineffective for individuals. This year the effectiveness rate is b/w 50 -60% which is considered very good. Last year's estimate was just 29%. So, many flu deaths happen in people who had the vaccine anyway, especially seniors. Perhaps this virus will end up being as bad as the flu, or even worse, but it is at nowhere near the impact of even a light seasonal flu outbreak, at this time, and hopefully it won't get close. My post was mainly about the panic however. We have all this media madness and shutdowns and economic issues already and IMO it is way out of perspective. As I indicated, common sense, care, vigilence, and general precautions are important whether it is this virus, the flu, strep throat, or norovirus. But panic is never helpful to anyone, and almost always makes matters worse.
 
Alright, let's say half of US population gets exposed to virus. Population is 331 million (est 2020), and 74% are adults (according to Google), giving adult population of about 245 million. Meaning 122.5 million infected.

If mortality rate is .5% of adult population (or 1 in 200), that would result in deaths of: 612,350 in the US.

*I'm not including children since (thankfully) they seem to be more resistant than most adults.
 
metwannabe said:
My point is the media driven mass hysteria. Think of it like this, so many people listen to news while getting ready for work, chasing after children, looking at their social media, driving down the road, talking on the phone, you name it they listen with one ear, barely. They aren't analytical like you, they're not reading articles and researching data and I'm convinced most media outlets, especially cable news, knows this. So throw out possible 20% mortality rate phrases or have a Harvard prof say 90 million will be infected, or the country may go on lockdown, etc and that's all they hear, that's all they know. Next thing you know people freak out, go into survival mode, wipeout supplies and instant disaster. It's the hype and playing on people's fears that's creating more havoc then the virus itself as of now.
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I can agree with a lot of that. The question then becomes is it hype if what the media is saying is rooted in evidence?
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Alright, let's say half of US population gets exposed to virus. Population is 331 million (est 2020), and 74% are adults (according to Google), giving adult population of about 245 million. Meaning 122.5 million infected.

If mortality rate is .5% of adult population (or 1 in 200), that would result in deaths of: 612,350 in the US.

*I'm not including children since (thankfully) they seem to be more resistant than most adults.
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If it were across the board, then yes, but it's not and not even close. The death rate for 50 years and under outside of China is probably some where around 0.02% and 0.05% and steps up again as you go up. If people can wrap their heads around that and stop panicking, we can focus on those who really need medical attention, supplies and hospital beds. If it does become widespread in the US, we need to close down vistitors to NHs, retirement communities and hospitals. That may also mean not taking Timmy to see Grandma often and Grandpa may need to stay home instead of yapping at the local store.
 
Arcc said:
If it were across the board, then yes, but it's not and not even close. The death rate for 50 years and under outside of China is probably some where around 0.02% and 0.05% and steps up again as you go up. If people can wrap their heads around that and stop panicking, we can focus on those who really need medical attention, supplies and hospital beds. If it does become widespread in the US, we need to close down vistitors to NHs, retirement communities and hospitals. That may also mean not taking Timmy to see Grandma often and Grandpa may need to stay home instead of yapping at the local store.
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Well, we have felt free to do what we wanted for so long, a little inconvenience might feel like the state is rearing it's ugly head. Situations can call for "extreme" measures. Public health first and foremost.


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Arcc said:
This isn't overrunning the healthcare in SK, Germany or France at its current pace either.
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Not yet anyways.....everyone needs to go back and look how this thing spreads, take Italy first confirmed cases Jan 31st, it was almost a month before the first death, on March 1st they had 1,694 cases, as of today that number is 9,172....it was the same in China, SK etc....the measure SK is taking is very aggressive with literal armies of people spraying disinfectant all over the place and drive thru testing centers....

Here is the chart for Italy....this fits the known incubation period.....

3851ee767d4e0b737894c7c5749e910c7784124e.png
 
I bought a 10lb package of 80/20 ground beef at the meat market 20 minutes up the road from my house earlier. For under $30. Vacuum sealed in 1lb bags when I got home. If/when this virus blows over, I’m grilling out all summer long. ? ?
 
Arcc said:
If it were across the board, then yes, but it's not and not even close. The death rate for 50 years and under outside of China is probably some where around 0.02% and 0.05% and steps up again as you go up. If people can wrap their heads around that and stop panicking, we can focus on those who really need medical attention, supplies and hospital beds. If it does become widespread in the US, we need to close down vistitors to NHs, retirement communities and hospitals. That may also mean not taking Timmy to see Grandma often and Grandpa may need to stay home instead of yapping at the local store.
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According to Wikipedia's tables, total cases outside of China (as of 3/9/20) are 32,956. Total deaths are: 854. This gives an across the board mortality rate of 2.59%

Personally I don't think that's the true mortality rate. My estimate was based on reading an article by a virus expert predicting 1% mortality rate assuming 40-70% of the world population was infected. My number was assuming only 50% of the population (and only the adult population at that), while lowering the mortality rate from 1 to .5%.

I mean, maybe this expert was wrong, and the assumptions are flawed. But my estimates were on the conservative end of what he was predicting..

Here's the link: https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...-virus-expert-as-much-as-70-percent-of-worlds
 
The fear should not be with the virus. The problem will be the public panic when numbers sky rocket due to more testing. COVID-19 is already here. Once people realize this thing is at their office, in their neighborhood, at their kids schools, it’s going to be chaotic. That’s what you should prepare for. This is not the bubonic plague. That I can promise you.
 
Downeastnc said:
Not yet anyways.....everyone needs to go back and look how this thing spreads, take Italy first confirmed cases Jan 31st, it was almost a month before the first death, on March 1st they had 1,694 cases, as of today that number is 9,172....it was the same in China, SK etc....the measure SK is taking is very aggressive with literal armies of people spraying disinfectant all over the place and drive thru testing centers....

Here is the chart for Italy....this fits the known incubation period.....

View attachment 36999
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Its not case count where they are different, it's hospitalization and critical cases. I posted this earlier today. Italy is some where around 10-15% critical condition and Italy's critical rate skyrocketed fast due to the much older population.

Arcc said:
Considering all the other nations, Italy is by far an outlier at this point. SK’s Critical rate is 0.0048 and Germany’s is 0.0017. France has just serious condition listed which is currently at 0.017.
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Italy also has a hospitalization rate of around 50% where SK is around 10% and you could probably say that could be more than it has to be because they hospitalized everyone regardless of condition at the start.
 
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