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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)

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Shaggy said:
See any freezes coming up to stop the bleeding?
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From a technical level, we're very likely to get a bounce in a couple of days. You have a couple of things working here. The virus looking more serious, in terms of spread and impacts, is one. The other is Bernie's resilience. This gets eye-rolled, but it does make sense. Stock prices are a function of supply and demand. The US is seen as the most stable and biggest economy in the world. Trump has been a pro market factor. Demand for US equities by global capital has been high for these reasons. If there is a growing possibility of a less pro market regime, particularly of the policy ilk of Bernie or Warren, then global capital will move out in advance of that. The other factor is the Fed. They have been the primary driver of risk assets over the last decade. Right now, they are not responding to the virus.

All of those factors are converging, coupled with the fact that asset prices are grossly out over their skis. Are we going down 20% in a week? Highly unlikely. It's statistically improbable. 1987 disagrees, but that's an anomaly. We are due for a technical bounce, which should retrace a decent portion of the decline. Then, we'll see what happens. The Fed meets later in March. If they don't lower rates or indicate that they are getting ready to do something, and if the virus continues to escalate, look out below.
 
This is a good article. Will take about 5-10 minutes to read, but it's a fairly good look at the whole picture of what has been happening, what is currently happening, what is changing, and what may lay ahead. It's probably a little more toward the worst case scenario end of the spectrum, but there are a lot of valid points.

One thing that I believe is incorrect is that the author seems to use the terms Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Mortality Rate (MR) interchangeably. I don't believe that is correct. From what I understand, the CFR is the percentage of those infected who die because of the virus. The MR is the percentage of the total population who die because of the virus. Just a little nuance to keep in mind.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
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Snowfan said:
Thread about new cases in Europe.
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Makes sense. Just like with Iran, if people are spreading it into other countries it’s widespread. Bad on the sense that it’s unstoppable, good on the sense that there are either tons of asymptomatic cases or mild cold like symptoms few are noticing. Makes me believe even more it’s widespread over here.
 
Windergawx said:
www.medrxiv.org

Temperature Significantly Change COVID-19 Transmission in 429 cities

Background There is no evidence supporting that temperature changes COVID-19 transmission. Methods We collected the cumulative number of confirmed cases of all cities and regions affected by COVID-19 in the world from January 20 to February 4, 2020, and calculated the daily means of the...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org
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If the SE ridge saves us from a US pandemic do we lose the ability to whine about it?
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s no definitive evidence that warmer temperatures significantly hinder the coronavirus, it’s nothing more than hearsay and speculation at this point
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I would actually think UV light would do a much better job than just heat. Maybe the sun angle consistently becoming stronger will help. If I remember my classes right, I think UV does a better job at inactivating viruses than Chlorine.
 
Arcc said:
I would actually think UV light would do a much better job than just heat. Maybe the sun angle consistently becoming stronger will help. If I remember my classes right, I think UV does a better job at inactivating viruses than Chlorine.
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There’s no evidence to suggest this is even remotely the case, every virus is different and coronavirus cases are becoming widespread even in countries with more insolation and that are significantly warmer than the CONUS
 
Rain Cold said:
If volatility makes you too nervous to look at your account, you might need to adjust your risk tolerance. The market has been extremely overvalued for a long time. Central bank monetary policy has enabled this. They can't print up masks, food, and vaccines, though. Sharp sell-downs are likely when stocks are at nosebleed levels.
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I know it's probably not a good thing that I'm not looking at my account or what 1 of my stock tickers looks like, but that's probably going to be my strategy, to just look away from the account while there's a major pullback and wait.

You don't actually need to look everyday if you're trying to mostly long term (its something that I heard, reason, it can play games with your emotions) but I most likely will look at the account sooner rather than later.
 
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